New blog

Hello Everyone,

Its been a while. Just thought I would put up a post updating on things. I have quit my day job in IT and am now a full time trader. Not doing too bad considering all things. I am associated with a hedge fund at the moment with a plan of starting something of my own in the not too distant future.

I dont trade India anymore. Fully US right now. My focus is on Stocks and Gold. Nowadays I use options more extensively to control risk. Anyhow, this is my new blog below. Just wanted to start something new and anyhow this site's name doesnt suit my purpose at the moment. Visit if you are interested but remember I dont trade India anymore though I might trade some emerging market ETFs at times. The site is meant to be more of a daily trading journal for me nowadays.

http://princelytrades.blogspot.com/

Best,
PM

Update

A quick update. I exited longs last week at around 5400 and above. A gain of around 8% on a portfolio of 40L. Not great...but not bad considering it was an easy trade/no daytrading/ easy just sitting on it for few months.

Why? Because I expect the 40week low after 4 weeks. It should come in around beginning of October.
We should have a bounce back or rally after that.

After that the next major low - the 80 week and likely 4.5yr low comes in around May/June next year.

So a period of having to be cautious. Maybe we will get a generational buy like Oct 2008 next year sometime. However price need not go very low as all big bears are expecting. Wait and watch. Right now I am fully out of market but waiting to see how the 40 week low comes about to see if I should buy for a 2-3 month rally.

I may not post any longer here :) Sorry just too much going on nowadays.

All the best to all.

Best,
Lee

Quick Update and FLD Projection - 6/30

Quick update on current cyclic view. 20 week low is confirmed. Also 20 week FLD is crossed giving us a projection of around 5700 in this 20 week cycle. We need to wait and see if it will be achieved. It was a big breakout of sorts on Friday. Could just be the game changer bulls were looking for.

Sachin, generally I dont like doing stock cycles because it gets skewed up. Any how here is the SBI cycle phasing. Looks ok enough however I am not very happy with it :) I prefer to focus on index and then go top down from there. Also stock data will have issues with it most of the time. If you see the chart closely you will understand what I mean.

Not updating portfolio today.I will do in around 2 weeks from now. Its now around 7% up. I will do some rebalancing next week on it.

Best,

Lee

June 24th - Update

Hello Folks,
Been a while. Since I am not trading the markets anymore - Instead operating on a much longer term timeframe, I dont feel the need to constantly watch or worry about the markets anymore :) Its a good thing. So because of this, did not feel like updating for some time. But I think now its time to put up my latest view.
So here goes:

As I mentioned some time back, weakness was expected into June end as we moved into the 20 week low. I think we got it and now we are climbing out of it. So this 20week low was the first major low after the 80 week low in Dec. So after this, the 40 week low may be sometime in October only. We might have a good but choppy advance with dips ofcourse until the 40 week peaks. Lets see how it turns out. Hurst view chart below.

One very weird thing is that the US market cycles have diverged from the Indian one. No longer in sync. Means US is now doing the 40week low but we are working with the 20 week low. Interesting.

Next a normal chart look.Weekly is still on buy with SL of 4770. It came very close to giving a sell but just held on. Chart looks bullish on an intermediate timeframe. I will hold my portfolio until I get a weekly sell.

Portfolio screenshot. Small differences. Got rid of several non performers. Added to performers. And I guess added in VENKEYS as a new stock.

As a result of cutting losses - its a 1 lakh loss. So the profit you see of 1.3lakh is in effect 30K only. Just clearing this lest anyone thinks I am misrepresenting anything!

Not very great I know....but then considering I started buying at 5350 odd, I think ok. And we may just may be on a launching pad here. Lets wait and watch.

Best,
Lee

Update - 4/22

Stock portfolio as requested by few readers. This was bought at around 2nd week of March or so. And then kept on adding until last week. The point to note is Index has actually moved down since I started buying but portfolio as as whole has moved up. Presented without bias. Presented as taken from my portfolio tracker.

You might wonder why I have so many stocks in my portfolio here. I have explained it before but its simple. When I start, I have a big number but then I cull it down over time. What doesnt perform gets thrown out and whatever performed the best gets added to many times over every single week. If you see the allocation amounts you can understand what I am talking about. I study the charts weekly to make a decision on this. But I dont spend more than few hours a week every week. So its nice and easy and fits my work schedule right now. Ok I wont say nice and easy but it is very comfortable now for me to do this. I love it and am feeling at peace with the market. And if I can make some 25-35% from the market yearly consistently..Consistently being the key word..then I am happy..more than Happy. And I have tried to track this method back in time..there have been years where returns of more than 100% have been attained. Ofcourse not possible every year but once in 3-5 years such a year will come and thats when portfolios like this outperform the market many many times over. Lets track this method out in real time over next several months/years..As long as I am able to actively post.

Coming to market views. Nowadays since the weekly is on a buy, I dont care too much about trying to predict day to day moves. I am buying all dips looking for the next big bull market to unfold. I expect there will be some more dips going forward maybe until May end time frame. This is where a major cluster of lows is expected. I will post a detailed update later. I will try and make a point to post weekly from now on. Atleast a snapshot of my portfolio so you know how it looks. The funny thing is before the Friday flash crash, this portfolio was almost 8% up!. That certainly took its toll. But I dont think the BULL is done yet contrary to all the popular views and doom and gloom out there today.

More Later.

Best,
Lee

2012

Been a while since my last update. Had a good time off from the markets.

Now several things here when I look at the conventional charts and also the Hurst charts. No low has really been confirmed yet. Even after this much rally. You would remember earlier I was looking for a low somewhere in Nov timeframe - the 80 week low - and then a good rally from there. Now even though we got some rally, I am not sure if this was the real long lasting low. I mean to say I expect more downside this year. I dont think it will be easy to trade this because of the sharp rallies in between.

Bottom line for me is that my weekly mechanical system remains on sell and will until we take out 5400 conclusively on the upside. This will come down to 5200 in March timeframe. So if we manage to go above 5200 in March, a new bull market will be confirmed as per my standards.

I know its big points and long timeframe but I am shifting my trading to this kind of timeframe for now esp because I dont have the time for shorter term trading right now and esp for this reason I will not update my blog as frequently going forward. Weekly signals are what I will be trading going ahead. And from a Hurst perspective, when I get a more reliable view, I will post the same. Right now Hurst is a big mess and like any system it has its good and bad times. Right now, until a good low is confirmed, I will not trust it. And this new 80 week cycle seems to be a bear cycle which is why I expect 2012 will also be a bear year atleast until mid year. Well the market has to disprove this by trading above 5400 in next 3-4 weeks or 5200 in next 10 weeks.

Short term I dont have much guidance to offer except that we seem to be getting into topping range right now and not much more upside is left near term. I think there are many other blogs out there like Kumar Sir's or Ilango's which give much better short term guidance..:) No need to rely on me. I will post from time to time..Maybe a weekly or even bi-weekly update going ahead. Lot of extra responsibilities have come up for me workwise during the past few months - So I really think this is the way to go for now.

Trade Safe.

Best,
Lee

Week Ahead - 2

For the same of completeness, here is how the cyclic picture looks like now. 80 week low is ahead of us sometime. I think maybe b/w now and first few days of Jan. This is my best guess for now. I am however not trading it positionally. Just hit and run.



When we have bigger bearish cycles like this one, its normal for them to extend and that is what is happening right now. Thats why trading rules are needed - to keep us out of trouble. Run your trading like a business instead of blaming your tools and everybody else except yourself :)

Ok. Thats it from me for a while..Holidays, Christmas, New year all coming up..Gonna take it easy for a while.

Have a great Christmas and New Year..Everybody.

Best,
Lee

Week Ahead

Well, last Friday was brutal. No questions about it. I thought maybe market might hold and try to move above 4840. But could not and fell strongly down to 4650 area. It looks bad folks..I dont know what to say. Looking at the cycles, I am again thinking the 80 week cycle is extending and we have new lows ahead of us. For the bulls, the market needs to rally here and now else we are going to be comfortable below 4600 and in that case, lower targets open up..First 4450-4300 area and if that breaks much lower. I dont know for sure I am in kind of limbo right now and cannot be sure of anything. We can go much much lower right here or we need to take support right here and rally upward. So I am not trading anything right now - in wait and watch mode for now. I will review again in few days. I dont have any charts to post today but I will do so in next couple of days. Overall my feeling is - if you dont have a clear opinion or no signal, just dont trade until clarity emerges.

Best,
Lee

12/15

So like I said before..the charts look ugly. But we still seem to be working on that 2.5 week low.

There are 2 possibilities here -

1. The 2.5 week low is still exerting its influence here and cycles are extending. We were supposed to ideally hit this on Monday but today looks like it is extending. Do we see it today? I think it is possible.

2. We saw the 2.5 week low on Monday and had a quick bounce up from there and its OVER..And now we are declining into the 5 week low. If this is the case, then market will break 4600 and head much lower in coming days.

Both scenarios are equally likely right now and since the charts look like crap right now, I am not very comfortable either long or short.

So whats the trade?

Heres the chart -



So now we are playing around with the 5 week FLD here. And I think it even broke it for some time and then got above it. So its quite dicey here. If it breaks again and stays below, it implies the 5 week top is done and market is down from here with small bounces in between.

On the other hand, the 2.5week low is coming in and if we can make it above the white line/5 day FLD and the next higher one the 10 day FLD, then we can go higher till 4900 or so...Above that we can get to 5050 area. These are all very rough numbers. I want to see if we can make it above yesterdays high first before refining the targets. Yesterdays high was 4840. You can see the importance of this from the above chart.

So again whats the trade?

Maybe best thing here is to stay out and wait for more clarity to emerge. I dont think shorting here is a good idea unless we break 4600 conclusively. And wait to go long above 4840 only. 2nd option is ofcourse to build longs here today and maybe tomorrow as long as we manage to hold 4600. And we get confirmation of bull case above 4840 where we can add more to longs. I am thinking of going with the 2nd option today in panic. Let us see.

Best,
Lee

2.5 week low but extensive damage on charts

I really did not want 4800 to break yesterday. But it did and in the process it has done some good damage on the charts. I mentioned that my stop was 4800, market sliced through it so I got stopped out. Still have some puts(hedge) which I will close today. So not really a loss but I am disappointed with the way this trade worked out. Not because of anything I did wrong - just disappointed. So the setup was there, the risk reward ratio was very good - Risk 100 points, Reward 400 points. So you just take the trade and see how it works out. This one didnt.

So now, we wait for the next setup. I dont have anything clear right now except a risky buy for a possible good bounce. I mentioned before I was expecting the 2.5 week low on Friday or Monday. So did we see it yesterday? Or do we see it today in morning? We shall see. I never expected it to be so dramatic and I think all the data this week has amplified the cycles right now.

So what did yesterday's downmove do? I broke down through the 5 week FLD. What this generally means is that the 5 week high for this cycle has been seen. Ofcourse anything is possible but most likely the 5 week high is in and so we shouldnt exceed it in this 5 week cycle(until Jan2nd or so when we see the next 5 week low). The other possibility is that this is a whipsaw and we regain the FLD today but its not good to trade on hope of this happening. Chart below -



So now the 2.5 week low has come. So its not a good time to short - risk reward will be horrible. Long also is bit dangerous without getting some more clarity. However we can play for a bounce back from this low to setup the next short trade. Bit dicey right now - I will prefer to do short term trades until more clarity comes in and the next FLD trade sets up - More on this tomorrow.

All the fundamental news and events out there are skewing up the cycles but this is expected. It will alter the amplitude but cannot change the timing by much.

Bharat asked some good questions earlier -

1. You mentioned on December 07 that the 5 week FLD has been crossed generating a target of 5350.... So when we look into FLD's, is the time span of 5 week target from the date of it crossing it? i.e. target is within January 14, 2012?

- My ans: 5 week low was on Nov 23rd. So the 5 week cycle will run 5 weeks from that date. So next 5 week low will be around Jan 2nd. So we need to hit the target in this timeframe. This point is ofcourse moot right now with yesterdays price action and this target is now null and void.

2. When you calculate these time frames, do you count weekends also? cause I have seen you counting them at times...

- Calendar days. Hurst says that even on holidays and weekends, the market is trading(in the sense somewhere some market is trading, and some event is happening..what would the market do if it were open at that time?)..so we need to factor them.


Best,
Lee

Week Ahead 12/12

No change in my earlier updates. 5 week FLD cross is still valid BUT need to be bit careful in here because a downcross is also looking like a possibility here. But still I think the 5350 target is still valid due to the FLD cross. Stop 4800 odd. I know there were many questions and comments. Havent been able to reply so far but I will be doing edits to this post in next 2 hours with whatever updates I have and also charts. I will answer all comments there.

Best,
Lee

5 Week FLD

As I mentioned yesterday the 5 week FLD is crossed. Chart below with comments added.



So yeah it would have been nice to hold to the shorts for one more day or two. But ok a profit is a profit. What we are seeing right now is action into the 2.5 week low. I want 4800 area to hold as a maximum. Break of this will damage whatever the bulls have built till now. 2.5 week low is expected Friday or Monday as I mentioned earlier and from there we should have another decent rally into the target mentioned in chart. So I started going long yesterday with 4900 Puts as Hedge. I will add more today and on Monday as per the plan.

I read the comments. See the way the FLD works is its sloping down here right? Its an image of price action in the past. So crossing it on one day - and next day a 2.5% drop happening might not be enough to push it below the FLD. The cross is still valid. If you see the chart you will understand what I am talking about.And the FLDs do tend to act as support and resistance lines.

Chandra, not intraday. It happened a day back. See the chart posted above. And its still a valid crossover.

GD, I remember you asked about SPX analysis. While I dont have a latest chart. You can take a look at this analysis. Maybe on weekend I will do one of mine. This guy is very good and is one of the people I learnt a lot from on Hurst. He was earlier looking for the 80 week low same as I was but now he seems to have changed his views a bit looking for a major low next year mid. I can see his rationale so something to keep in mind. But bottomline is, it does not matter right now for short term trades.
2 analyses done below. One for Nov 28th and one for Dec 7th. You can see in the posts the difficultly right now everyone is facing with coming up with an accurate phasing of the cycles.

Link to SPX Analysis Nov 28th

Link to SPX Analysis Dec 07

Best,
Lee

5 week FLD

Quick update. 5 week FLD has been crossed generating a target of 5350. So I was short from yesterday because of the expected 2.5 week low expected Friday/Monday. I covered most shorts at 4950 Nifty TODAY - I was very clear on this and the rationale behind it. I also started to go long because the FLD has been crossed today and we can anticipate close to 5350 soon. Charts will be posted tomorrow.

Best,
Lee

Wednesday

I dont have time for a detailed update today so will do so tomorrow.

Bottom line is 5 week FLD is not crossed. And the 2.5 week low is expected around Dec 12th - Which is next Monday. So we might not cross the 5 week FLD instead might try to but fail and then fall down a bit before moving back up.

This is really just speculation but I dont have any action signals yet. I might try some small shorts today via puts playing for the 2.5 week low OR I will use hedged futures to try to play for some downside. Target is however anybody's guess. 5000 seems to be strong support and ofcourse below that 4950-4875 area. 4800 is rock solid as per options data. So I think shorts should be hit and run only. Or be defensive in playing for it. The 5 week FLD cross is near - So we will have to be long from next week onward as per my calculations. Will post charts tomorrow.

EDIT
Changed my mind. Posting a chart here with some comments and showing the current FLD position. Keep in mind no short signal is generated but I am trying some shorts with tight hedges. I will add until bit more higher into the 5200 area. I agree with Kumar Sir - above 5235, then better cover all shorts. Hedges should protect me till then. More comments on the rationale in the chart.



Best,
Lee

Week Ahead 12/5

Well last week was a pretty great one for the markets. It was also a good one for me. A excellent target based trade driven by FLDs and followed out to almost the dot. So since my target was achieved on Friday, I exited all longs at 5050 area. I know we are higher now and might also gap up today. But my target was achieved and so I took profits. I think we will get a chance to reenter or we can reenter on the next FLD cross.

I have tried to explain things below using charts.







The first 2 charts just show an explanation of things that happened so far and how the trade worked out last week. The last chart shows the next move to look for.
As you might have noticed, ST has almost confirmed the last low at 4650 as the 80 week low. But remember its not up up and away from here. I still think we have major pain coming next year...but just speculation now.

Anyhow back to the last chart. Note that the earlier 2 charts shows that targets of the 20day FLD cross was achieved at 5050. And now we are actually in between FLDs. So at the moment no higher targets are generated. But it will once the 5 week FLD is crossed as shown in last chart. I expect we will have some pullback this week and then try to cross the 5 week FLD. So lets say we cross the 5 week FLD at around 5000. If so, we have a move to around 5350 generated (5000+(5000-4650)). Note that this will also generate a bigger target due to the 10 week FLD cross. And this cross is giving a very unbelievable target even for me - 6050 Nifty (5350+(5350-4650)).
(EDIT: I just read Kumar Sir's update...Funny!..And also makes me a little more confident on this.. :) But still damn skeptical! )

Well keep the last one one the backburner for now. I am really really skeptical about it. First let us cross the 5 week FLD which will generate a 5350 target. Then we see.

Chandra, I dont have good charts generated using Nifty. It might be because of lesser amount of data. This is why I use Sensex. Somehow have to deal with it this way..i.e I think Sujatha used to say - Watch Sensex and Trade Nifty :)

BTW, thanks to everyone for their compliments on last weeks analysis. Its always nice to get appreciated. Things really worked that time. Hope it does this time too.

I am totally flat now..But I will post as soon a the next trade is generated. Till then wait and watch.

Best,
Lee

Wednesday

I have been very happy with the way FLDs have been working so far. I have explained about FLD's in earlier posts in detail - Keerthi please read the post I did on Sunday night with the charts. I have tried to make it as detailed as possible and also with examples so anyone can understand.

Pilot, 80 week lows, even though we dont have 100% confirmation yet, I think its very high probability we did set the low at 4650 odd. However how long this low will hold is another story. I did do posts earlier on this speculation recently. Hope you did not miss it.

Chandra, if it is the 80 week low, we will have upside - yes - but it does not have to happen very very fast. There will be backing and filling so form a good base. See Oct 2008 - Mar 2009 period to see what I mean. 2nd thing about FLDs..see its a cascade, this is why I was sticking with the 5050 target from beginning. See FLD cross, projects next cross, then that cross projects next cross and so on. So based on my rough calculation, I came up with those levels i.e if we close 4770, its extreme high probability that we get to 5050 with some resistance expected in b/w at 4850 area. This was shifted down from 4865 to 4845 as the FLD lines came down.

The formation of FLDs I described above is called an FLD cascade and it basically projects a good upside in the method I explained above. One by one.

Here is a look at the current view. As you can see, we are at the next FLD cross. So basically it is crossing today at 16100 Sensex (around Nifty 4830). Bottom at 15500. So difference is around 600 points = Approx 200 Nifty points. So adding this to 4830, we get 5030. So 5030-5050 is the current projection for the 2.5week FLD.



Now the market has run around 7 calendar days from the 4650 low. So we need to start looking out for the 2.5 week cycle now. I think we will top in the next 2 or 3 days and then maybe try a consolidation move into the 2.5 week low - this is however not likely to be a major low - we might try to consolidate at around 4850 area - in effect test this area from above. All speculation for now. For now we have the FLD outstanding target of 5030-5050. Then we see.

I might book profits today atleast partially and re-hedge the rest just to be on safe side.

Best,
Lee

FLDs

Hope you guys have been watching the power of FLDs. I mentioned in last update 4865-4875 needs to be cleared for higher targets of 5050 and little higher. Market reversed exactly at 4865 yesterday. One reason I booked some profits at 4850 as updated and tried to buy back lower.

Anyhow for today, looks like if we clear 4840-4850, we are looking at a 2.5 week FLD cross which will generate a target of 5050+...Wait and watch..I think trading with FLDs have been going well..so far.

I will reply to comments later...

Best,
Lee

4850

Well yesterdays FLD call turned out to be a very accurate one. 4770 to 4850 - not a bad little trade. But it might just be the beginning in this little upmove. Today we are facing resistance in this area and might be just consolidating before the next move up - but need to watch carefully because as of yet, there is still no confirmation of the 80 week low yet and when dealing with very large lows like this one, flitting back up and down is quite common.

Anyhow, I took some profits off above 4845-4850 NF, hedged the rest with 4800 puts. Now will just wait and watch. Will update if I do anything.

FLD cross 1 target was satisfied yesterday. 2nd is still pending - i.e above 4860-4870 area, we trigger target of 5050-5080. But this might take a few more days to trigger.

EDIT: 1.5hrs after open: Now that I got some more time for review, this is what I have. Yesterday first FLD cross - 5day FLD - generated 4850 as target and we hit it to perfection. Next the 10 day FLD - generated a higher target of around 4910-4920. This target is still outstanding. Then the 20 day or 1.25week FLD - this will generate a target of approx 5050-5080 once 4865-4875 is crossed. So basically the 10day FLD and 20day FLD are tied together and they together generate a target of 5050-5080 maybe bit higher to 5100. This is the outstanding target for now and what I am playing for. As I mentioned before, this will not happen in 1 day so play defensively but on the long side. Thats it for today. Questions are welcome.

Best,
Lee

FLDs and the Week Ahead

Back from a few days off from Thanksgiving Holidays over here. It was a good relaxing time away from everything.

Last week, we were trying to find some sort of bottom. I mentioned before that I have some signals that I am going to use for going long. I am still flat since none of my signals triggered yet. I will outline here now what is this signal so that you have some idea.

Till now, I have barely scraped the surface on the utility of the Hurst model or did not reveal too much to avoid confusion. I have been thinking that I will do that for past few days and mentioned it in my last update as well. Its called FLD - Future Line of Demarcation and is a Hurst concept. Basically it is price line of daily average price moved forward in time by a certain value - this value is determined by the cycle values - like 20 week, 10week, 5week etc. 5 week which is also the 40 day low for example, would be moved forward by approx 20 days. And will be called the 5 week FLD.

FLDs have a lot of utility - Crossing of an FLD confirms that that particular low has been set. And also gives us a target for the price move. See chart below -



I have added some annotations here - The 10 week FLD is offset by approx 34 days here because the 10 week is running 68.3 days right now. This is the light blue line I have shown on the chart. I just gave this as an example but you can see how it worked. Once crossed on downside, it confirmed the 10 week high and also projected a move 1000 sensex pts lower which we got as well. Its uncanny how often this works very well.

You can see several other examples in the chart. Just look at the light blue line - the 10 week FLD and see how it generated a target for the Oct 4th move up. Many more are there. See if you can spot them. When you combine multiple FLDs, it gives a lot of information on what to expect next in the market.

Each FLD cross generates a price target, this price target can generate another price target and so on. This is my trade setup right now. See chart below.



So first for me, the 5 day FLD or the white line should be crossed to the upside. This will generate a target equal to the move until it crosses the white line. Then the pink line and so on. The bigger the FLD line, bigger targets can be generated. And when there are multiple FLDs like this in this position, the move upward can be explosive. Maybe just like the downmove. I will add more on FLDs in coming days.

For now a move above Friday's highs on Nifty at approx 4770 gives very high probability that the lows might be in. And also projects a likely move above 4850(based on FLDs) and above 4850, I become quite confident that the 80 week low also might be in. I will go long today in small quantities with above prices to guide me on where to add and where to cut - Also will have a strict stop at the recent lows of 4650 area - Breaking below this level means the market has more work downside and also that the 80 week low is NOT in. How prices are acting with the FLDs will show me when to take profits or when to stop out the position.

Hope I made sense. This has not been an easy market to trade with all news noise out there. So hope everyone is still 'intact'. Trade Safe.

EDIT: Few minutes after open - 5 day FLD cross at 15800 SENSEX (4740 NIFTY) - Projects 16100 SENSEX (4840 NIFTY) : All approx figures. Lets see if this works out. 4840-4850 cross will give a target of 5050. One step at a time and I will fine tune these values tomorrow.

Best,
Lee

Action into the 80 week low

I strongly believe what we are witnessing right now is action into the 80 week low. The problem is that this is a longer cycle low hence for it to expand by a couple of weeks or 3 weeks even can be considered normal.

Expect more ups and downs - We should hold 4500-4450 area for this low. I would like it if we can hold the 4600 area but if that breaks, then we should see 4500-4450 area which I think will hold. Oh and I should also mention that 4700 first needs to break before entertaining any bigger bearish targets. Go from point to point and dont get greedy since we are so late in this cycle. Maybe we touch 4720, go up to 4900 and then do the final down to 4600 or slightly below - dont know just speculation for now. But it might happen quite quickly.

I know that there is a lot more possibility of big downs from here - but that is what we should expect in this cycle. But being short is also not easy due to the large swings going on. I am trying to trade here but its going back and forth too quickly - hence not easy. So I am trying to mostly scalp nowadays while we wait for the 80 week low. There are some ways of confirming that the 80 week low is in - I will explain this another day but I am keeping an eye on it.

BTW, I have replied to comments in earlier post.

Best,
Lee