Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Market Analysis and Views - New medium :)

Video I made with my latest analysis...Just trying something new. Enjoy...and comments welcome!

EDIT: Sorry guys I know the quality is bad..But I tried so many things and couldnt fix it...most free services do not maintain that quality of the initial file...So I am putting links for the direct files...Anyone who does not like the quality below, can download the files...Split into 2...







video

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Poll..Please VOTE based on what you think..But also dont miss important post below!

Market Outlook
Do you think market has bottomed or where do you think market will bottom?
Bottom is in...BIG rally comin!
Maybe little down but bottom is in or very close to in..I am buying dips
No way..I am selling rallies big time!!!
In trading range for long time
Markets? I dont give a damn!
View Result
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The Setup

Those who dont know about fractals or if you missed my earlier call on the same, please go and read the fractal call I made in September before the big plunge -> GO

Okay now coming to situation now...I have posted the chart with the fractal outline below. Its self explanatory and it should be fairly easy to see if the moves are playing out as forecasted. Till date I was looking at the fractal but still the moves were not clear enough but with recent price action, I think we are close. 
 

The other thing I find worth to mention here is when we hit the recent bottom last week, I would have covered but I was looking for lower since the fractal suggested the same...Unfortunately market always acts the way that is least expected. So shorts are now squeezed and retail and TV analysts seem to have gotten bullish again. I think we are very close to another short term top right here. I will be watching today's and tomorrow's action closely.

The Bottom Line - Until we go above 3150, I will remain bearish.

Best.

Amateur Guitar!

:-) 

Here is a song by Green Day...Good Riddance...Played by Moi...

I am a beginner so bear with me!

Comments welcome.

Best.
video

Introspection

When I started this performance and trade tracking business a couple of weeks back, I said it was going to be more of an experiment than anything else...And I also mentioned my intentions with this...i.e...not to start any kind of stupid trading calls service...But instead to serve as a performance tracker in case I do eventually get to do my dream job - be a fund manager.

Now after 2 weeks in this, I have to say, this thing is affecting my judgement, leading to unwanted stress and overall is hampering my performance. I say this comparing recent performance to that from a few months back. I think more than anything ego and stress is coming into play and these are things that should be avoided for sure in trading...

I know of several people who did something similar to this over here in the US..And I saw similar things happen to them also...They were outstanding at first but then just tapered off as more people began to follow them...Granted its too early to say for sure for me...But I think it is wise for me as a trader to make a call to shut this thing down.

I have had this nagging thought in the back of my mind for long...I have also thought about this for a long time yesterday and today....And have made my decision.

Trade sheet is updated with all the latest...I will leave this here for a day before taking it down.
Overall since I started, booked shows 11% and unbooked+booked will show around 6% profit.
For records purpose, let it be 6% and assume that all positions are closed and I am flat when I take this down.

I am sorry guys...to those who liked this new thing....but I have to think of my trades, my performance...and in the end, if my performance is getting affected, then what is the point?

Regd the market, I still think we are in a topping process and retail seems to be bulled up again...I think all rallies should be shorted from now on...FWIW.

Best.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

More Adjustments

Okay here is what I did...Closed 3000 Calls(hedge) at approx 50.5

Entered 2900 Calls(as a hedge) size 2000 at approx 85...

Enter 2700 Puts size 1000 at approx 98...

As always all updated in sheet above..I saw some Qs asking about the trades..I dont see what is
so difficult to understand here..Whatever trades I take goes to 'open' and whatever I close, goes to 'closed'...Whats so difficult to understand? Comeon guys do some research on your own.

I know I know..Their is a good chance this trade will be a loser eventually..But as always I have to play the odds...I have to play my system and my gut feel..

Best.

20/20

No not a cricket match :) ... I am talking about hindsight here...Its funny how that works...Hindsight is always 20/20...What does that mean? It means looking back, we always know the exact points in time where we should have done something...And looking back now, I realize I should have covered shorts and probably sat out this current upmove.

Some of you readers might think I am a fool for letting this profit go by...But again the hindsight thing comes into mind...

I do not have much concern over here as I think this is just an oversold bounce in a very badly damaged market. In the bigger scheme of things, its not a big deal. I know I was in decent profits last Friday and after today's close overall position is in a small loss...I admit this is psychologically draining to see what was a profit go into a loss...But I follow the Jesse Livermore maxim...Sometimes in a trade, you just have to sit tight and wait for the BIG ONE...And that is what I am waiting for here...Might have to take some more pain but the payoff could be big.

The other thing I am feeling now is...after starting this new position updates thing on the blog, it has increased the pressure on me several times over...The pressure to not get into bad trades...The pressure to keep on winning...I guess this is why almost no one will do something like this...I am however going to tough it out and see how it goes...If I feel my performance is getting impacted, I will decide to stop the same...After all that is more important to me. Right now its quite too early to say for sure...But I am keeping a close eye on it.

Coming to the markets...Ok we got a good rally...Next area is 2805-2860 resistance bundle or wall...It would be very tough for the market to go over this...But if it does, we will challenge 2920-2950 range....As of now I dont have a clear plan on this trade if this happens...But I will see when we get there...Break 2720 on the downside and I think the downmove will continue in earnest to 2500 odd. Right now its a toss up and cant say for sure what the short term move will be...Intermediate term..i.e over next 2-3 months, I am very confident we shall see 2200 area and lower again. In the meantime, some pain is bound to be there.

If I get some time later, I will post charts with the counts I think we are in now.

Comments welcome.

Best.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Took OFF some of the Hedge

Just repositioning...You can see the details above.

Best.

Weekly Update - Chop Chop

My thoughts for the week...It will be short as there is nothing much to report. Expect the chop to continue...I think we shall get a good chance to cover shorts someday this week. Based on global markets, it looks like we bounce today...Shorting at around 2860 might be a good strategy.

See below chart...red and blue lines show possibilities short term. I think we are still finishing off wave 4 before wave 5 opens down.


Very simply speaking, we should see 2525-2550 area first (after going up today)...Then we should see around 2860-2960 range....Then the final move down. I will post these counts later...

For today I might do nothing in my trades...Short term taking some pain but we will see how it plays out.

Best.

10000 Hours

Funny title? Well that is the amount of time it takes anyone to become a master in any particular thing...Be it trading....or be it singing..or be it playing the guitar...Thats what it takes to be an expert in any field.

I read a blog article a few days back and cant find a link anymore but basically what it says is...For anyone to become a master in something, he or she needs to spend 10000hrs in that particular thing...

So lets look at trading...lets say you spend on average 5 hrs a day....so it will take you approximately 2000 days or 6-8 years to become a professional...This is assuming ofcourse you are fully dedicated and do spend 5 hrs a day...

Now statistics say that out of all traders maybe only 3-5% at a best guesstimate actually make profits consistently and over the long run...Why? Because most people give up after a year or 2...They either get frustrated or disillusioned or the market kicks them out...the great bear market of 2008 would have done that to a lot of people...If you remember, I once wrote about this...How I started out with few of my friends in this business and in the end only I am left...Not that I am very successful..Only that I do realize that I need to put in effort and lots of effort...I realize there is no free lunch...And we need to work for it..Now more than ever..Which is why I find it laughable that people tune in for tips and free calls...

I occasionally dab a little bit in guitar and music...Maybe I would have spent around 1000 hrs on and off...I can play a bit but I got fed up in between and stopped...Now I started this up again...I think I shall persist this time until I can play good enough...Maybe I will post some of my songs here some day..But my point again is that NO PAIN...NO GAIN...

Do your due diligence folks...Work toward those 10000 hrs...

Will post some thoughts for the week a little later.

Best.