Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Thursday, June 5, 2008

The First Two - PANACEA and IFCI

As promised in previous post, I am looking at 2 stocks here...Not yet advocating a buy...except MAYBE in small amounts...I am in wait and watch mode for now...As I said for next couple of weeks.

First one Panacea Biotech...I have covered this stock once before over here...I think this looks good because even with the general weakness in the market over past few days, this looks relatively strong..Volume also picking up showing strong hands might be picking the stock. Fundamentally also I believe this is a good stock but I am hoping others can comment on this.

The other thing here is the falling channel-long term, that looks like it can be broken to the upside soon...This is a good stock to buy and hold for long term in the next correction...

Next one...IFCI...Now this stock is no stranger to anyone...Why it looks interesting to me even though its a highly speculative stock is because of how it has held up the 60 price range even over past few days. And volumes are huge...Is someone big accumulating in anticipation of some inside news? Looks possible to me...Also an Inverse HnS looks to be setting up even though its not very clear here...

So thats my first 2 picks...I will look at some more over next few days...As I said before, now might be a good time to pick some good scrips for longer term...Big money is made by buying and holding over longer periods of time...Not trading intraday. You can see how panacea went from 40 rs or so up to 360 odd now...Thats the power of long term. Judge for yourself from the charts.
Now one thing I need some help from readers of this post is do you know anything about the fundamentals or news about these 2 companies? If you do, please add this into the comments section of this post...I would appreciate it...

Market Update - June06 2008

Make it stoppppp....PLEEASEEE!!!! This would have been the reaction over the past few days for most traders and investors alike... :-)

Jokes aside...It was quite serious - this decline...And there was really no sign of relief...Yesterday market bounced back however I do not think we are out of the woods...I think a lot of traders seeing yesterdays action, might have gone long thinking its over...But I am not so sure...To tell the truth I am confused however I will give the benefit of the doubt to the bearish case until I see more convincing evidence.

Okay coming to the weekly chart first...I have added my comments in the chart. You can see how the stochastics is acting now...I would wait for it to first turn up before jumping in again
with my longer term investments.

Next the daily...Now the bounceback should continue for a few days I think...The lows of March and Jan are quite important...The 4440-4460 area. If this breaks, we should quickly crash to 4000 area. And maybe even more. But before jumping to any conclusions, I remain flat for next 1-2 weeks before making a decision on next steps.

Next the hourly chart. Again its clear...Supports are marked...Break this and we crash. Its simple. I am sure that a lot of traders have gone long or covered shorts in anticipation of this holding? But will it hold?...The Million dollar question!
If I were to guess, I would say bounceback and then come back to break the lows...We can surely expect a retest and how it reacts there will determine the market's trend for this year itself!
For a refresh, read this post again...I posted this some time back...Ultimate bottom can be much lower:

Okay now that the charts are covered. I just wanted to say some stuff...For some time I have been trying different strategies in FNO and eventually come to the conclusion that it is not worth for me to continue in the same. Believe me, I have made money...good money in normal cash trading in stocks...Or stock picking...But FNO is a different story...Simply not worth for me..Time or effort...So I am returning back to stock picking for a slightly longer timeframe...Means 2-6 months timeframe...Maybe more depending on the market conditions.

I think the main problem that I have with FNO is more phsychological that anything else. Leverage just does not work for me...The main reason ppl get into FNO is to make a quick buck and often end up loosing their shirt in the process...For me since I was hedged most of the time, I did not get off too bad...But still overall I can safely say its not worth the time for me anyone...So moving back to stock picking...And I think we are getting close to a very good buy point....I would wait for 2 more weeks before making a decision...
Fundamentally things are not good...If inflation is 8%(actual much more) and GDP is 8%, this means, real growth is negative...BUT still I think picking out some good stocks will really work out in the longer run.
As a start, I will post 2 interesting stocks in the next post.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Market Update - June4th 2008

Same chart that I posted yesterday now with updated data...You can see how we hit the exact support I had marked as important and bounced up from there...I tried a small long there and still holding...Looks like we will continue the bounce today for sometime but how long will it continue? Will it hold? Lets see...My thoughts would be that atleast a retest of the lows are coming very soon...Looking to close the longs sometime today maybe at 4760/4780 and wait and watch...I might try a short also today around there based on what I see....

Overall market is very far from strong..Right now the configuration has changed to short the bounces....Market needs to go above 4800 first to indicate some strength...Till then we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bearish case. Today for the bulls, a positive close is very important. Yesterday we formed what could be a bullish hammer - But needs a good closing today to be valid...Else it was just weak shorts covering.

Have a good trading day.


Monday, June 2, 2008

Some stuff and lines

Just the intra chart of nifty with some lines and supports I think might be important in coming days...Not giving any recos here but can try maybe going long with tight stops at these line...Be cautious whichever way...This is a confusing market.



Stopped out at 4800 - The number that I was saying is very very important in short term...Well we just sliced thru it so easily that one wonders what is the point of supports?....Its scary to be long now...I think better to sit out for some time...When in doubt stay out - This is probably the best advice any trader ever got but still we always want to be in the market.

Looks like we are heading to 4600 first stop...Then who knows?


Sunday, June 1, 2008

Market Update - June01 2008

Not much of an update today...Still expecting a bounce..Configuration on charts remains the same...Not uploading charts today coz theres not much change from last week..We are at the lower end of the channel...Still expecting a bounce...One thing here I will say...Many ppl I know are expecting a bounce to 5000 area....Rarely does the market satisfy everyone...I see a couple of possibilities...

1. Market does not get to 5040 area at all...Instead stalls at around 4960-4980 area and goes back down.

2. Market goes above 5040 and screws all the bears...

Kinda favouring 1st scenario for now...We might even get to 5040 which was my initial target..lets see...

I am also preparing my shopping list for longer term stock picks...Will post thoughts about this later...My idea is to pick them on the next decline which should come soon...

Have a good trading day.