I have tried to explain things below using charts.
The first 2 charts just show an explanation of things that happened so far and how the trade worked out last week. The last chart shows the next move to look for.
As you might have noticed, ST has almost confirmed the last low at 4650 as the 80 week low. But remember its not up up and away from here. I still think we have major pain coming next year...but just speculation now.
Anyhow back to the last chart. Note that the earlier 2 charts shows that targets of the 20day FLD cross was achieved at 5050. And now we are actually in between FLDs. So at the moment no higher targets are generated. But it will once the 5 week FLD is crossed as shown in last chart. I expect we will have some pullback this week and then try to cross the 5 week FLD. So lets say we cross the 5 week FLD at around 5000. If so, we have a move to around 5350 generated (5000+(5000-4650)). Note that this will also generate a bigger target due to the 10 week FLD cross. And this cross is giving a very unbelievable target even for me - 6050 Nifty (5350+(5350-4650)).
(EDIT: I just read Kumar Sir's update...Funny!..And also makes me a little more confident on this.. :) But still damn skeptical! )
Well keep the last one one the backburner for now. I am really really skeptical about it. First let us cross the 5 week FLD which will generate a 5350 target. Then we see.
Chandra, I dont have good charts generated using Nifty. It might be because of lesser amount of data. This is why I use Sensex. Somehow have to deal with it this way..i.e I think Sujatha used to say - Watch Sensex and Trade Nifty :)
BTW, thanks to everyone for their compliments on last weeks analysis. Its always nice to get appreciated. Things really worked that time. Hope it does this time too.
I am totally flat now..But I will post as soon a the next trade is generated. Till then wait and watch.
Best,
Lee
16 comments:
how can one get to know whether FLD has been crossed or not during the week?
Is mid-week updation possible?
Lee 6050 is a possibility but not before another significant bottom formation. EW counts and some indicators point this out
at least for now. Lets see how things pan out this week.
Good work. Thks.
Kuheli, not sure I understand..Can you explain what you are looking for? I mentioned way way before hand that 4770 cross would be an FLD cross that would support an eventual target of 5050. You may check the earlier posts. Exact cross cannot be known too much in advance because the FLD varies day by day but an approximation is possible.
Thanks SBSB. Maybe. Thats why I am flat now.
Best,
Lee
Returned yesterday after my trip and went through all your posts. Congratulations Lee your FLD targets have been hit Bulls eye.But it looks like the target 5050 reached pretty fast.
Remember when I last logged in on Monday I commented that 4850 is certain and also 5000+ would be achieved in a couple of weeks.Yes I was so confident of your analysis.
My misfortune that I could not keep any positions and I cannot remain active in markets until Feb.2012.
Till then I will keep myself updated through your blog/Kumar and Ilango sirs, and whenever I find time do some Intra day time permitting. Once again Thanks for the update and please keep updating.
Lee,
Good calls. Wondering if you can post
FLD chart for S&P ?
sIR,
Please discuss in detail about the FLD, IF POSSIBLE.
Sir,
I want to know more about FLD System. Will you please discuss?
Sir,
How to know that 5 week FLD has been crossed or not? (because, as you said, only after crossing the same a biiger target is in the offing)
Kuheli, chill. The 5 week FLD is not crossed. I think I mentioned chance of it crossing immediately was less.
On wednesday it has a much higher chance but I would rather wait for some more time before entering a trade on long side because the 2.5 week low is coming soon.
I will post above scenarios in detail tomorrow. My post yesterday I think was very clear - not sure why so many Qs.
Go and read the last 3-4 posts again and again and again - I have given a lot of examples there. Then even if after that, you have any specific Qs, pls ask.
Best,
Lee
more on fld and hurst cycles:
http://books.google.co.in/books?id=I5SgX5q5sQEC&pg=PA471&lpg=PA471&dq=forward+line+demarcation+hurst+cycles&source=bl&ots=kkjVBAXB9t&sig=JQPc77QfbC98uJ3aLzvKD1o7QcA&hl=en&ei=sJvdTo7CN8nhrAfRubT5CA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CD8Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q&f=false
Thanks Lee for resurrecting an almost ignored concept. Something useful to learn. Thanks a ton.
Dear Lee!
Thanx for ur visit & commenting on my blog. Another thanx for reminding me for your work bcoz i totally forgot to visit since 1-2 weeks, ur visit reminded me & hats off to you for your sincere work again.
When i found double bottom at 4650, that time 5025-5050 was looking very clear on my system in short term but my system was suggesting a big move on long term chart so i was also sceptical like you but i dared to mention 3rd target as UNBELIEVABLE. But now after your support & FIRE's work i am quite confident, if it closes above 5235 on weekly then real fireworks will start in Indian Market and then my UNBELIEVABLE may be BELIEVABLE between 5700-6000. Thank you so much for your kind words & congrats a lot for your exclusive work:)
Lee,
What will be 2.5 week low in approximation and likely time frame.
Bvdr, sometimes its good not to trade for a while and refresh our batteries!
Kumar Sir, thank you very much for your encouragement and compliments. You are one of my role models in trading!
Rajagopal, thanks. Nice to see you after long time.
Jay, I will post about this today. Its tricky right now. I am expecting some downside but I also think it might be very weak downmove not worth shorting..But instead need to prepare to buy the dip..We shall see though.
Best,
Lee
Hi lee
Sorry for not participating,
Well done you gave nice call, found perfect bull move before it happens, you are doing wonderful job.
Keep it up
Thanks Jigs
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