Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Friday, October 31, 2008

Thoughts for the Weekend

Well guys first I must say thanks to all who came forward to offer me support as I was having second thoughts about continuing with the blog...I have added more on this in the comments in the post below this. Reading all the comments in the post and on the shoutbox, I cannot bring myself to close the blog...So I will not. I will however outline some concerns I have and why I thought about closing the blog...


- Trading is tough...Mentally exhausting...Emotionally draining....Reasearch and Analysis also takes a lot of time....In addition to that blogging takes even more out of you...Putting your own ideas out in public for everyone to see them and act on them...And probably even go wrong more than often puts a lot of pressure on you in case the readers of this blog did not know...

- Ideas are out here. Trades are not. Does anyone know how I trade? Do I go long without any cover? Do I hedge? Where do I hedge? What do I use to hedge? If its puts, what is the ratio to longs that should be maintained, whats the strike so that the portfolio is delta neutral? Am I making sense? What I am trying to say is I am NOT a financial advisor...This blog presents ideas..Unless someone understands the risk vs. reward, do not enter a trade. I get sad seeing suckers everywhere looking for 'calls'. I have said this before and will say it again - Do your due diligence...I read 100s of blogs and ideas from other...Why do I do it? To get ideas..Not trades..I will collate this information and try to see how I can use it in my analysis. Sometimes I find useful stuff...Sometimes not...But in the end my own ideas and chart reads will come through...So my sincere advice to all...Use this blog for ideas NOT for calls or trades...I dont want that on my concience. And also understand basic ideas of risk and money management. This is what will make you successful in the long run.

- Few days back a sucker commented in one of the posts below that I am consistently wrong and that Nifty is going to 1800...Remember he posted when it was at 2250...I knew we had a bottom in place there...That comment is still there for those interested to check it out...It was an anonymous comment but I wonder if that loser is still short 700 nifty points above. While I was not much bothered about his comment because I knew he was wrong about short term..Medium term still can go lower but then its all about playing odds...Right now its buy the dips vs. sell the rallies...And so keep buying the dips.

We also had another sucker on VFM saying that India and China is going to war he had RAW intelligence...And so on...Another sure indication of the bottom... :) Read that in case you missed it...It was one of the most hilarious posts on VFM. When nifty goes back down to test the lows, I am sure he will post again...Buy blindly

Coming to markets...Charts and more detailed analysis will follow later but in short what I think is the current configuration is still buy the dips but something is still nagging in the back on my mind that we need 1 more low....Till then we might just chop chop. This low can be a higher low also but we need to see that when we get there...I cannot count the waves properly..It looks like one more 5th wave low is needed and we might remain in a complex 4th wave for some time. At the moment I am confused at how long this uptrend will last and if we will even get much of a selloff later. I will analyse some more in the next post.



Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Important Update and Analysis

I just realized we've completed a very powerful chart formation here, i think its called the "funny blue lizard guy loses his lunch" pattern. I just forget how you're supposed to play this one.

Sorry guys...In case you did not realize till now...this was a weekend FUN I gave you some laughs...

On a more serious note...I am seriously considering shutting down this blog...Why? You might ask..Well several reasons...Dont want to elucidate them here...But I will consider any comments any one has before making a decision.


Monday, October 27, 2008

Market Thoughts and Ideas

Well folks, the decline/crash run much more in price levels than what I had been expecting. I will be honest - 2600 in Nifty was the worst possible level I was looking for...Market is a great humbler is it not? Broke 2600 with ease and went down to test 2250 area. Could be testing the multiyear flag breakout here - Chart below.

Let me be clear here...I am down on my cash holdings but I will keep adding on dips...I expect I will be much better off a few months from now...I booked a good deal of my puts yesterday...Thank God for Puts...Was able to recover much of my losses from the cash holdings...

My view going forward - Keep buying em big drops in the market..

See below charts also. First the long term chart I posted some time back. I admit we went much more than I thought we would but we are at an important area. Looks like we are testing the multiyear flag breakout area. If we fail this area, we can go to around 1950 on Nifty...Maybe around 6000 area on Sensex...BUT pls note this is the worst case..We need to be brave here and keep buying all the dips...No one can catch the exact bottom...But we can get close as possible.

Now the Nifty weekly chart...Comments on the chart.

Regd EW counts not going to make any statements out there...But sentiment is supportive of a major major bottom forming right here. But I am not going to worry about that. There is huge huge value out there...Dig for em and buy em...Dont be too nervous. A good example of a good stock is INFOSYS...Market down 25% from where I bought but INFY is UP 3% from my buy point...Thats just amazing and also a screaming BUY. Others I like right here are Educomp, KSOIL and NTPC..As always usual disclaimers apply and please do due diligence before following advice here...

Please note I had to say that since I hate to be the cause for ppl losing money if any....But having said that, I am confident on whats stated above. :) BUT expect retests of the bottom and maybe slightly lower going forward....Will be good areas to add aggressively to longs.

I remember at 6000 Nifty, ppl were calling and asking me about shares, demat accounts, IPOs and what not...I told them now is not the time...Now if I ask them to buy, they will look at me as if I am totally nuts...Thats sentiment guys...Be brave and buy now...As my friend Rajan sir says, Fortune does favour the brave! ;)

Comments welcome.