Good question right? I am in a dilemma right now. As I mentioned earlier, cycles are very unclear right now so trading this is tough. I was expecting some sort of bounce into 5100 range - may happen or not - need to wait and see.
But, so far, the pressure or money flow has remained on the downside and that is expected to remain so until the projection of the Nov low.
Trading short term has been volatile and full of whipsaws.
This is the problem. And I am not sure how to resolve it unless you are ready to take some pain.
Today, I will look to close the few longs I have and maybe go short in few amounts. Not sure if the market will let me. Its very fluid right here. Need to see how the market is trading before making a decision either way.
The other problem is within US, tomorrow is a big day...there is a fed statement..there is lot of news coming out...So news will direct the trading atleast on a short term basis.
Wait and watch.
Best,
Lee
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Trying on long side
Just started..4800 is support for today..Just started very small..will buy on dips.
Best,
Lee
Best,
Lee
Looks Corrective - For Now
Its corrective all the way and may last for some more time. There is an outside chance that the 5 wave down has started but it only gets confirmed below 4800. And then also it can quickly find support.
So for now, its essential to be quick and nimble. Scalping and very quick trades might work. So for some time I am not going to post my trades because it will changes quickly in and out. Yesterday is an example. I couldnt post frequently enough depending on how I traded.
As I have been saying so many times - one thing is sure - longer term/medium term is bearish into the expected Nov 80 Week low. Nothing else is certain at this point of time but it should clear up over time.
Now as you can see from above..Its very confusing. The main confusion point is where is the last 20Week low. Unless this is placed, we cannot resolve the lower timeframe lows. 10 Week, 5 week etc. See the questions marks? That shows the confusions. I am hoping things clear up by next week or so. Till then we have to scalp.
Problem is earlier I was thinking that the June mid low is the 20 week low. And what we are getting now could be either a 5 week low and then in few days the 2.5 week and so on. But this picture shows something different. That the last 20 week cycle may have extended - which is bearish - and low we might be coming out of a low point.
If this is the case, then a bounce higher above 5000 into the 5150-80 range cannot be ruled out. So as I said confusion overall. But being bearish overall is safer. If you are bullish, I will suggest, keeping the trades short(timeframe) and safe. Also hedging while it reduces the profits, gives some peace of mind. This is how I will be playing for next 1-2 weeks - both longs and shorts.
If you guys have any questions, please feel free to ask. I sense that some questions are there..I saw a few here and on mail which I tried to answer..but still anything else, please feel free to shoot and I will answer them over a weekend post.
Best,
Lee
So for now, its essential to be quick and nimble. Scalping and very quick trades might work. So for some time I am not going to post my trades because it will changes quickly in and out. Yesterday is an example. I couldnt post frequently enough depending on how I traded.
As I have been saying so many times - one thing is sure - longer term/medium term is bearish into the expected Nov 80 Week low. Nothing else is certain at this point of time but it should clear up over time.
Now as you can see from above..Its very confusing. The main confusion point is where is the last 20Week low. Unless this is placed, we cannot resolve the lower timeframe lows. 10 Week, 5 week etc. See the questions marks? That shows the confusions. I am hoping things clear up by next week or so. Till then we have to scalp.
Problem is earlier I was thinking that the June mid low is the 20 week low. And what we are getting now could be either a 5 week low and then in few days the 2.5 week and so on. But this picture shows something different. That the last 20 week cycle may have extended - which is bearish - and low we might be coming out of a low point.
If this is the case, then a bounce higher above 5000 into the 5150-80 range cannot be ruled out. So as I said confusion overall. But being bearish overall is safer. If you are bullish, I will suggest, keeping the trades short(timeframe) and safe. Also hedging while it reduces the profits, gives some peace of mind. This is how I will be playing for next 1-2 weeks - both longs and shorts.
If you guys have any questions, please feel free to ask. I sense that some questions are there..I saw a few here and on mail which I tried to answer..but still anything else, please feel free to shoot and I will answer them over a weekend post.
Best,
Lee
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Talk about bad timing
Yeah..I know..should have held on..Its funny how the market works and plays with our emotions..I am back short in very small amounts. Will add if conditions work out.
Meshach, Already posted details of the cycles below. You may check the charts below.
EDIT: Can see a 5 wave move intraday. This may be an A wave of the B wave within this 4th wave move. So means we can add shorts on upmoves today to cover either later today or early tomorrow. Then one more bounce upward lasting maybe couple of days to complete the 4th wave move.
All guidelines only. Trading 4th waves are always tough - Its what separates the men from the boys! :) If in doubt, stay out.
Best,
Lee
Meshach, Already posted details of the cycles below. You may check the charts below.
EDIT: Can see a 5 wave move intraday. This may be an A wave of the B wave within this 4th wave move. So means we can add shorts on upmoves today to cover either later today or early tomorrow. Then one more bounce upward lasting maybe couple of days to complete the 4th wave move.
All guidelines only. Trading 4th waves are always tough - Its what separates the men from the boys! :) If in doubt, stay out.
Best,
Lee
OUT
Got out of shorts on the morning dip. Closed all positions. In hindsight, I should have closed around 4800-4850. Nevertheless I did earn some money through the hedges but not ideal. Will watch for now..And plan to short higher. My biggest worry right now is a possibility of 5150-5180 coming in few days.
There is still chance for dips here..But want to watch for some time.
Thanks,
Lee
There is still chance for dips here..But want to watch for some time.
Thanks,
Lee
4950-5000 range
Well the rally continues. I did not expect it to do this much. I guess thats why they call it trading and the stock market. Cant expect things to work out all the time.
Anyhow today would be a very interesting day. Because after this big rally in the US markets, it would be interesting to see how we react. A gap up is sure but then what? We have been notorious for spiking on overseas markets and then giving it all back and more..So today will be interesting to see if we stay to form or do infact take support somewhere and rally.
For now 4750-4800 has established itself as temp support. And clearing 4950-5000 range and staying above, we can attempt the 5180 area again. Kpl provides a view on this here-
5180
I am not very sure how to trade around this with my existing positions but I will post updates later today after seeing a bit of the action.
Cycles wise, things are murky again. And this tends to happen in the fag ends of cycles. Once again, taking profits early would have proved to be very prudent. Hurst always mentions on trading short - need to be much more cautious than when trading long. Because as I have mentioned many times - Lows tend to be spiky and fast. Highs on the other hand can be a bit more rounded out giving us more opportunities to get out of longs.
Still over the medium term, nothing has changed. The 80 Week low is still scheduled for Nov mid timeframe.
More later today.
Best,
Lee
Anyhow today would be a very interesting day. Because after this big rally in the US markets, it would be interesting to see how we react. A gap up is sure but then what? We have been notorious for spiking on overseas markets and then giving it all back and more..So today will be interesting to see if we stay to form or do infact take support somewhere and rally.
For now 4750-4800 has established itself as temp support. And clearing 4950-5000 range and staying above, we can attempt the 5180 area again. Kpl provides a view on this here-
5180
I am not very sure how to trade around this with my existing positions but I will post updates later today after seeing a bit of the action.
Cycles wise, things are murky again. And this tends to happen in the fag ends of cycles. Once again, taking profits early would have proved to be very prudent. Hurst always mentions on trading short - need to be much more cautious than when trading long. Because as I have mentioned many times - Lows tend to be spiky and fast. Highs on the other hand can be a bit more rounded out giving us more opportunities to get out of longs.
Still over the medium term, nothing has changed. The 80 Week low is still scheduled for Nov mid timeframe.
More later today.
Best,
Lee
Monday, August 22, 2011
Rolled Up
Rolled over to higher strike calls(5000) in the morning pop up as I said, after booking profits in 4800 calls (from 80s until 136..so made up for any notional losses in the shorts).
Now we wait for a retest of the lows or lower. Maybe maybe not :) Wait and watch!
Best,
Lee
Now we wait for a retest of the lows or lower. Maybe maybe not :) Wait and watch!
Best,
Lee
Bounce..for now
Ok we got the bounce. 4900. 4950 can come. I hedged yesterday with 4800 calls. Today I plan to roll that to either 4900 or 5000 calls. Now why did I hedge yesterday? Because in this intense volatility, it becomes extremely difficult to forecast cycles. Even my software is having problems placing the lower timeframe lows..let alone the higher timeframe ones. So I expect the 10 week low to come in around 6-7 days. But thats not what the Hurst software is expecting. So I have to go with my judgement. So I will go with my expectation that the 10 week low is coming and will coincide with the EW wave 5 down of this full wave 3 structure down. If I am wrong I will give some money back but overall will still be ok.
Today, I will cover the calls I have for a good profit and roll to higher strikes anticipating more bounce.
BUT since this whole month has been weak, expect expiry also to be weak. Longs might need to wait a little while more..maybe for a retest of the lows..maybe a bit lower to set some divergences. Somehow I dont expect a V shaped bounce.
I meant to post some charts but not now..a little later today.
Best,
Lee
Today, I will cover the calls I have for a good profit and roll to higher strikes anticipating more bounce.
BUT since this whole month has been weak, expect expiry also to be weak. Longs might need to wait a little while more..maybe for a retest of the lows..maybe a bit lower to set some divergences. Somehow I dont expect a V shaped bounce.
I meant to post some charts but not now..a little later today.
Best,
Lee
Sunday, August 21, 2011
4800 Bagged and Tagged - Hurst Updates 8/22
Excellent week I had last week..was completely in sync with the market..got most of the moves I was anticipating.
Looking ahead to coming week, it might not be as easy to trade I feel. Because there are some changes coming up - most important of which is that we are closer to a temp low than before. Pricewise I am bit uncertain but timewise it should come around this Friday to next week Monday timeframe. Maybe a little bit more than that but in that timing vicinity. This will be the 10 week low as per my calculation and from here we will get a sidewise bounce sort of move for few weeks atleast.
Okay so bottom line as before - still bearish over medium term into the November 80 week low. Bearish also into the 10 week low in the next 6-7 trading days. Slightly bullish after that for couple of weeks and then again bearish for the final move. You can visualize this from the chart above. If we saw the last 20 week low in June 3rd week or so at around 5200 and from there we are in the last 20 week cycle before Nov. So this is a bearish cycle and we have already broken several key lows along the way.
Now we are in the last 10 week cycle in this 80 week cycle so its also a bearish one however some small bounce can be expected soon - this may come in the form of a larger scale wave 4. Ilango gives good counts on his blog around this scenario. Assuming we are in a wave 3 now, we should finish the downmove into the 10 week low and from there start the wave 4 I was talking about.
All ideas only. Does not have to pan out. And when trading we need to remember not to get fixated on any single idea but be flexible.
My trading plan for today is to get some hedges thrown in for my shorts because we are at some sort of support levels and also because my earlier hedges I had closed couple of days back. And then wait and watch. Levels wise, 4800 showed some support, breaking of which will lead to more downsides - 4700 might be another area we test soon. Below that, 4500 also comes into play. But one step at a time. Remember this might be the last portion of this section of the downmove so dont get overly bearish and fall into a trap.
If you arent short, then this is not the time to get into fresh ones. If you are short, take portion of profits off and hedge the rest. If you are long, expect some pain..maybe lot of pain before a low takes hold - Just a guess - Might be wrong on this also.
Wanted to post more charts and thoughts but no time..So will try to add some stuff later.
If you missed earlier posts on Hurst, you might want to read up again my earlier posts.
Best,
Lee
Looking ahead to coming week, it might not be as easy to trade I feel. Because there are some changes coming up - most important of which is that we are closer to a temp low than before. Pricewise I am bit uncertain but timewise it should come around this Friday to next week Monday timeframe. Maybe a little bit more than that but in that timing vicinity. This will be the 10 week low as per my calculation and from here we will get a sidewise bounce sort of move for few weeks atleast.
Okay so bottom line as before - still bearish over medium term into the November 80 week low. Bearish also into the 10 week low in the next 6-7 trading days. Slightly bullish after that for couple of weeks and then again bearish for the final move. You can visualize this from the chart above. If we saw the last 20 week low in June 3rd week or so at around 5200 and from there we are in the last 20 week cycle before Nov. So this is a bearish cycle and we have already broken several key lows along the way.
Now we are in the last 10 week cycle in this 80 week cycle so its also a bearish one however some small bounce can be expected soon - this may come in the form of a larger scale wave 4. Ilango gives good counts on his blog around this scenario. Assuming we are in a wave 3 now, we should finish the downmove into the 10 week low and from there start the wave 4 I was talking about.
All ideas only. Does not have to pan out. And when trading we need to remember not to get fixated on any single idea but be flexible.
My trading plan for today is to get some hedges thrown in for my shorts because we are at some sort of support levels and also because my earlier hedges I had closed couple of days back. And then wait and watch. Levels wise, 4800 showed some support, breaking of which will lead to more downsides - 4700 might be another area we test soon. Below that, 4500 also comes into play. But one step at a time. Remember this might be the last portion of this section of the downmove so dont get overly bearish and fall into a trap.
If you arent short, then this is not the time to get into fresh ones. If you are short, take portion of profits off and hedge the rest. If you are long, expect some pain..maybe lot of pain before a low takes hold - Just a guess - Might be wrong on this also.
Wanted to post more charts and thoughts but no time..So will try to add some stuff later.
If you missed earlier posts on Hurst, you might want to read up again my earlier posts.
Best,
Lee
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