Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, June 23, 2012

June 24th - Update

Hello Folks,
Been a while. Since I am not trading the markets anymore - Instead operating on a much longer term timeframe, I dont feel the need to constantly watch or worry about the markets anymore :) Its a good thing. So because of this, did not feel like updating for some time. But I think now its time to put up my latest view.
So here goes:

As I mentioned some time back, weakness was expected into June end as we moved into the 20 week low. I think we got it and now we are climbing out of it. So this 20week low was the first major low after the 80 week low in Dec. So after this, the 40 week low may be sometime in October only. We might have a good but choppy advance with dips ofcourse until the 40 week peaks. Lets see how it turns out. Hurst view chart below.
One very weird thing is that the US market cycles have diverged from the Indian one. No longer in sync. Means US is now doing the 40week low but we are working with the 20 week low. Interesting.

Next a normal chart look.Weekly is still on buy with SL of 4770. It came very close to giving a sell but just held on. Chart looks bullish on an intermediate timeframe. I will hold my portfolio until I get a weekly sell.

Portfolio screenshot. Small differences. Got rid of several non performers. Added to performers. And I guess added in VENKEYS as a new stock.

As a result of cutting losses - its a 1 lakh loss. So the profit you see of 1.3lakh is in effect 30K only. Just clearing this lest anyone thinks I am misrepresenting anything!

Not very great I know....but then considering I started buying at 5350 odd, I think ok. And we may just may be on a launching pad here. Lets wait and watch.



Nifty Neethi said...

Dear Lee,

In your portfolio what are parameters
that you applied to select the stocks and what kind of money management system that it got as i see could not figure out the fund allocations method here.

Shaggy Boo

Lee said...

Hi Shaggy,
Nifty giving a buy on weekly is the main trigger. So going above last 20 week high. Once I get this, I select the stocks. Its purely based on discretion.I actually went through around 1000 different stocks to select around 80-90. From there I trimmed it down to this and also added to all the stocks that were outperforming.

I dont have any set money management rules. But lets say I put in 15K in each stock first. I then added to those that outperformed....Again its purely based on discretion.

Let me know if you have any more Qs.


Sachin said...

Hi Lee,

Good to see you making updates.

Can i ask you one favour, is it possible to share nominal cyclic model for some individual stocks like SBIN, LnT, IVRCL etc.

It will really help me to understand further this analysis method.

I am still making a log of nifty movement as per FLD's

It quite impressive. :) :)