Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Another Fascinating Juncture

Another interesting week of trading has gone by and the next 2 weeks for me will be very very interesting and important...Now almost all weeks are like this so you might wonder whats so special about this one?...I will explain. Lets start with the weekly.

Now what is important here is that the MACD has turned up and is on the verge of breakout out upward...BUT see the last time we were this close...It just kissed back and failed. I will be watching this one very intently for the signals that the same will happen.

Notice also how the stochastics gave an important intermediate term buy and is still on a buy.
I have been hammering the table about this important gem for a long time.

If I were to take a guess, I would say another kissback and failure for the MACD but let the market tell us that.

Now next the daily. We have a breakout out of the channel and we are targetting higher levels of 4720-4750. Important fibo levels in both retracement terms of the bigger decline and the recent more smaller decline. 4800 odd should be tremendous resistance and I would wager we fail before we get there...

I also think that the next SIGNIFICANT low will be a major major BUY point. You can refer my counts from earlier and see why I think so. ABC-X-ABC after which a big multi-month rally.
This is still what I am thinking and still sticking with it.

Here is the chart I had posted some time back. See the lines drawn predicting possible moves for the market and see market action up to date. It performed quite well for me and was able to make some bucks. However its still sad how ppl ridicule EWT..Recently on a forum I frequent many folks came out making fun of EWT...Its funny when ppl do not understand something, then like to laugh at it..I dont hold it against them...Its just ignorance.

I make it a point never to belittle a new method but instead try to understand and prove it right or wrong...If its useful, its a good tool to add to your arsenal. If not, well let it go. This is the hallmark or a good trader. Also finding out what works for you and sticking with it. Its very important to be open to new ideas when trading in the financial markets.

Okay enough of preaching. Lets look at the hourly also. At this point nothing is clear from this one. I am not going to try to count the subwaves because it is just not clear...I do believe however that we are still doing an ABC correction upward after which we should go lower...

Maybe a retest of 3800 or maybe a bit lower. Again dont expect this to happen all of a sudden. Tops and Bottoms are very painstaking affairs. Give it time.

Fundamentally speaking, I was looking at EPS data of the NIFTY for this year and was shocked to see we have a very miserly growth figure of 8% odd last year. This is quite shocking and way below what I was expecting. And with the RBI tightening down on things, we need to pay attention here. Maybe its time to put the INDIA SHINING story on the back burner for some time and just play the market trading the swings.

Comments are welcome please. This is what will give me incentive to post and also will heighten discussion and well enliven up things more!
Trade Safe and Have a Great Week! ;)


Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Market Update - Aug 5th

Bullishness is back on the street...I was bullish from the slowly turning bearish...we may get atleast a pullback from this levels...We need to see the nature and extent of the pullback to decide whether to buy the dip...
Market can go up to 4750-4800 area on this move...Before that, we can have some pullback...Or a serious dip...If we go below 4350, then it will be a much bigger correction or start of a new bear move...Any corrections that stay above it may just be a smallish correction.
Note how the stochastics are in the range of highs where it has signalled the start of a new correction or bear move...Better to book profits in longs if you have any...
I have started some small shorts which I will be looking to add to over next few days if we go some more higher...Taking each day as it comes...