Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Couple of Questions to All

I had a couple of questions/requests to all...I would appreciate it if anyone responds helping me out with this.

1. I wanted to build an intraday database on Amibroker esp for Nifty but am unable to find good sources of data for this. I have a subscription to desitradermall but downloading each days worth of data and building a DB for more than 2 years is a monumental effort..I know backups are there but even there, the data has differences, is a little bit I tried but was not able to get this done..The main reason I am trying to do this is to be able to put EW counts on the whole correction we have got from the last top. So any help in getting the database built up would be appreciated.
The other option is - if anyone has the database already in ami, I could just copy it over and it should work - Please comment if anyone can help me out in this.

2. Tax question. I havent filed anything in my tax returns related to stocks till now. I am unsure how I need to go about this. I started trading back in 2003 mid/end timeframe. So till now no details about my trading operations in my tax returns. But I have been filing tax regularly based on my normal day job income and details. So basically its an omission from the returns.
The main reason I wasnt concerned in the initial years is because I wasnt really making much but now I need to do this to avoid future problems. So I am unsure how to go about this. Is there any way I can account for all the previous trading details in my next return? Will I get in any sort of trouble wrt fines etc if I decide to show all years or just the past one year? Is there any way to avoid this? What is the best way to get everything back to normal and legal? Any help is appreciated.

Comments and suggestions requested.


Thursday, September 1, 2011

Friday - EDITED reopening after 2 days off. Will be interesting to see how we perform today. In my opinion its bit of a toss up today. Since we were closed for 2 days and other markets performed reasonably good in those days, we should have a tendency to catch up. However today US markets were weak. So we might also exhibit weakness sometime during the session today.

Last time, I mentioned that the 10 week low was in and we are bouncing out of it..And what a bounce. Going in even at 4840 levels yielded awesome profits. So it was a good trade and call. Now as I have mentioned several times before, we are in the last 10 week cycle of the 80 week, the 4.5 year and the 9 year cycle. So this is an extremely bearish cycle. Which basically means the top of this cycle will be left translated. Basically that is how the bearish cycles will work - The tops will come in very very early in the cycle - thats how we get left translation. In bull markets - exact opposite - Right translated cycles where the peak is formed very late and then weak and quick declines. Hope I am making sense. This one might be forming the peak already around here or maybe a bit more higher around the 5100-5150 range. This is what I am looking for now to slowly scale into shorts.

I am not sure if I should start today or wait for a few more days. I will take a call as we go through the trading the day. 5100 area and above might be good to start scaling in slowly. The important thing is not to get too confident on this and also to play position sizing adequately.

Now if you look at this chart, the breakdown point is quite clear - 5200. This is where the descending triangle broke down and culminated in a devastating move down to 4750. So this is why I was saying any rallies have a maximum cap of this area. If we do manage to go above and sustain above, then we have to admit that something else is going on. We arent supermen with insights into the future - we are traders - so we have to operate on IF-ELSE scenarios - sorry just grounding expectations here. We have good odds but that does not justify not using stops or stop out points.

So for the bearish case, 5200/5220 is the point where it should not go above.

Over next few days to 1 week is the timeframe I expect for this topping process. We should back in and out toward this. Not sure exactly what structure we will take but let us see. My bias is very clear - I will be looking for a top during the next few days - maybe sometime next week - maybe sometime today. Will wait and see how we trade today because making any further decisions.

Thoughts and Comments are welcome.

Oh and by the way, Chandra, I do have analysis on US markets also. I will put this up over the next few days. I do tie up my analysis b/w India and the US very closely even though I dont mention it here. I will explain more in next post(s).


1. Big Gap up..Shorted a pilot position on the gap up and hedged it as well. Now wait and watch if this warrants additions to position.


Monday, August 29, 2011

10 Week low IS IN - EDITED

Yep..sure looks like it. Yesterday before market open and I think even few days back I mentioned that likely the 10 week low was coming in and looks like it did last Friday/yesterday. I remember few weeks back I was mentioning of a likely low around this timeframe. In between I remember thinking it would come early. Overall worked out fine - except for the fact I missed to take full advantage of the shorts I had due to the huge gap up yesterday.

Unfortunately that's what happens at the fag ends of cycles. Still we know its a take what we have and run..See the open yesterday..never even came close to it after the open...What a rally!..shows the power coming out of the 10 week low. So I humbly covered my shorts around 4840 and went long, pyramiding as we went upward so overall did good yesterday. Today, respecting the holidays, I might book profits. 4960-5000 area might be a good area to do this. We will see where it opens.

So like I mentioned yesterday, the last 20 week lows came in likely on June 20th. And now we are 70 days from that low = 10 weeks. So its the 10 week low alright. And what next. As has been the case on the last major lows, the rally and tops have been extremely left translated. This one should also be the same since we are in a bearish cycle and also this is the last 10 week cycle of this 80 week, 4.5 year and 9 year cycle.

So expect the highs to be set in within the next 4/5 days to the next 2 weeks. And the price should be something around 5100-5180(if we can clear 5000 for good). 5250 will be the stop loss for the bearish case to work out. If these work out the way I think it will, we will top around there and move quite lower into the Nov 80 week low..Somewhere below 4000/3800 is what I am thinking for the coming last leg. But one step at a time.

I will post some normal TA and charts next. Along with some more considerations. If you guys have any questions or comments, you are more than welcome. I see lot of visitors but very few comments..I hope people are getting what I am posting..If not, then just ask.


1. Covered 50% longs at 4988 AVG. Hedged rest 50% at same level. Now wait and watch.

2. Covered rest at 4980..Closed hedges also..Totally FLAT now. Just watching. I expected bit more but looks like everyone is scared of the holidays..Still not bad for a 1 day counter-trade :)

3. Got to go sleep. But if I was awake, I would try scalping a bit on short side now..Unfortunately cannot..So cheers all and I will post some more ideas over next 2 holidays. Its past 12:30am here and I need to go to work GN!


Sunday, August 28, 2011

Short term bottom in or close?

Well as I said last Friday, I did short near the top around 4870 and am enjoying some nice gains as of now...I believe we are close to a short term bottom or might set it today.

Need to watch this a little bit. Now we can assume that the last 20 week low was set around June 20th timeframe. I believe there was a question on this in the comments section so yes my answer is this is my preferred possibility. If so, then right now we are setting the 10 week low around now and from here we can expect a short term rally for a few days if not for a couple of weeks. But as has been the case for the past few lows, this one also should be left transalated and we should set the high in a few days and continue down until the Nov low - the 80 week major low.

So a dead cat bounce is all we can expect at this point. Lets see...Around this area till 5000? Possible. Clearing 4960-5000 and staying above will target 5100 around. More than that, is tough.

So today my plan is to cover shorts today..I am not sure, we might get a gap up and then consolidate for a while..a lower low is also possible. So wait for a while is what I think..And when going long, I will also hedge it considering the uncertainty and also the shortened trading week this week. If I go long, 4650 is the area I will be watching with great interest. Holding this is crucial for the short term uptrend. Longer term, I expect the market to slice through this like a hot knife through butter. But lets wait a little bit on that ;)

EDIT: Covered at open and trying few longs...