Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Friday, February 13, 2009


Okay guys...its been a tough week...very tough for me...One day the bear case presents itself and the next day, the bull case presents itself...We are in a range...Period. And I have been wearing myself out trying to trade it positionally instead of scalping.

The fractal called for a down day yesterday which we did not get. Maybe because of the last minute stick save in the US markets but whatever it is, we did not get it....I thinned down a lot on my option positions yesterday only because the time decay was killing and ofcourse took a loss in them. Going to avoid option trading from now on...

Overall a disappointing week for me...We may have topped as I said before but as each day goes by, I am becoming more and more skeptical...Maybe we just stay in a range for some more time....Just frustrating everyone...The budget next week might provide more direction...Maybe.

I am still holding my core short position but I will likely bail if market makes more of a push higher...And again maybe try at higher levels.

Overall not happy with my trading over past couple of weeks...I see that some emotion also entered in lately.. So I am taking a break from blogging...
Definitely for a few days...Maybe even a bit longer.

In the meantime, best of trading to everyone.

Wishing everyone and good weekend and happy valentine's. :)


Thursday, February 12, 2009

Round and Round we GO

Update to the same fractal call I been posting here for a while.

EDIT: Damn - 'I AM' on the chart should read 'AM I' :)
Man last minute stick save on the US markets...Can you believe it..lolz

If this is right, Friday should also be a decent down day.


Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The Playing Field

EDIT: Forgot to mention something. See how they killed all the bears yesterday. See how they closed the gap - Exactly what I said might happen in previous post. Now what this achieved - bullish sentiment is stronger now...I find this very interesting. I think we are building CAUSE here. But I still have to say bottom line is we have to get out of the triangle below..

Simple and self explanatory chart. Thats the field...How high up will we go? Not sure at this point. But whenever we break 2850, it will be game over for bulls.

Notice also above how stochastics is close to tipping point.

2960 is a potential topping point...Above that it will be 3050 and above this 3120. Quite unlikely we run that far. I will be looking forward to adding more shorts today/tomorrow depending on the levels - whatever I had thinned down few days back.


Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Whats New?

Before I start, here is a GYAN -

What is the definition of insanity?
Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different outcomes! :)

A very smart guy...genius in fact said this...not not me :D....Yeah Albert Einstein.

My last 2 posts were just in jest in case you did not realize...Still some amount of seriousness is there lol...

Okay pure market views. Looks like we get gapper down today...And the usual attempts to fill that gap. It seems to me like we are being conditioned to a Pavlovian Dog instinct. One day a gap will come which will not fill...That day we will see real panic and maybe a bottom..Today is not that day.

Charts with comments.

Points to watch are 2860-50 on downside. I am not saying that the bull case is dead until a close below this point. In fact I think we shall close the gap the today or atleast try to. So its not like all is clear for the bear. Its just one more chip in our favour.

Even though I was mostly joking in last 2 posts, do not miss them since there is matter in them as well as the comments.


Damn! Somebody Woke HIM and HE aint happy :)

See this is what you get for taunting bears! :D (refer post below this)

All in jest of course - Just having some light fun....While the bear case
has been strengthened today by the US market action, its too early to
say if we can have one more marginal high - But less chance.

Thanks to all who commented in earlier post. I have posted my thoughts
and conclusion also there in case anyone wants to read it.

A more serious update later today.


There he sleeps...Somebody please wake him!! :)


EDIT - WOW looks like the US Bear just woke looking for a fakeout/trap :-|
Someone please wake the Indian Bear too :)

On a different note - Would you prefer my usual written updates or the videos? I noted that not many people download the video compared to those that visit here.

Markets - The beat goes on. 20day swing SL taken out. Now its on a buy...Likely this will also fail - stop is at 2660 odd I think. We are in the RANGE from HELL for now.

I still believe we are setting an important top right here. My beliefs should ofcourse be taken for entertainment purposes only! :)

Will post a more serious update later.


Monday, February 9, 2009

Video Update - Feb 9th 2009

Latest Video update from my side...Video quality is good...But could only put the full file on another server...Go and download from there to watch -


Sunday, February 8, 2009

Important Week Ahead

Meant to put out another video today...Unfortunately did not get time but still want to do this quick update since I think this week is a very important week.

The most important chart development I think is that the SL for the 20d swing has come down to 2930 - meaning that shorts should exit if market closes above 2930 any of these days. Will it happen? Well let the market tell us. I am going to review market action for next few days to decide how to manage my trades.

Something I have noticed recently is that few readers are turning aggressive, downright critical, mostly senseless comments that I cant even understand what they are trying to say. Come'on guys if you want to offer counter points, I welcome that since I can see the other side of the coin...But aggressive and taunting posts will get you nowhere. If it continues, I will be forced to take some additional steps like no comments allowed at all...Or even take this blog private so you can read by invite only....But we shall see. I dont like it when people come out taunting esp when I take a lot of effort to this analysis and updates...Its very frustrating to say the least.

The good thing though is that whenever these guys come out like this, market flips in my favour. So we shall see.

Okay enough of my rant.

Some interesting things I see on public sentiment also. Suddenly forums, news, blogs etc have turned bullish - They were bearish till Thursday. For me this is damn interesting. Market has not done much in this period to warrant this much bullishness...Is it the news? The stimulus plans? Well we all know how the last few stimulating plans helped the markets :D
Bottom line is this market should be allowed to heal by itself...sure it will be slow..but it is the only way. The more money you throw at it, you are only worsening the process.

There are a few things I am watching and also some cycles that say we are going to put in a real top within Monday-Wednesday timeframe this week. Whether this will happen or not I do not know but I am watching this week closely. I admit time is fast running out for the bearish case and the earlier fractal we were following can fail if the bullishness continues this week. I will be looking for an important top this week beginning.

I will post the video update tomorrow.