Updates...

A quick update here...

As I said before, I am bit confused on what next but some ideas here on what can happen...

Today should be up huge...Monday also might be up...good probability for it....we can get to somewhere like 3500...even 3600...more than that for this round might not be possible...after that again, i expect a downmove to an important low sometime mid to end next week....this will be the final low....and should be bought very aggressively...

Now the problem here is I do not know how low that low will be?....Can be a lower low....Can be something very close to 3000 also...

BUT there is also a possibility it goes lower to somewhere in the 2700-2900 range...
So best keep above in mind...

What can be done is keep buying in cash but also hedge positions with equal number of PUTs...Atleast our risk is managed for this month..The idea being that we build a long term portfolio for the next big rally...

What we are seeing now in the markets and economy is truly unprecendented....Something I have never seen...Bottom picking is never easy and can never never be 100% accurate...But the aim is to get as close as possible...And maximize reward with respect to risk...

All the best folks.

What Next?

It turned out to be a very good idea to get out of leveraged positions on the big upmove we had before...As I had adviced here...What next?

I am confused but I think we shall try to go a bit more higher and then come back down again to retest the lows and slightly lower...So what to do? Sitting out a bit until some sanity returns is a good idea...In cash, its a good idea to keep buying the dips...I am still longer term quite bullish...Only thing I am not very sure about is how the lows retest will happen...

From 3300 up to 3600/3700 again...And then back down to 3150/2900 range? Something like this I am thinking about now...And that low should be the major low...5th wave low that is.

Its all speculation...So better to avoid leveraged positions...In cash as I said...Keep buying the dips...I think anything around 3200-2900 is an excellent buy.

Best.

Yeaaahaa!! :)

See the US markets today...This is one for the record books. The fractal and yours truly nailed the bottom here in real time and fully boarded the bull bus...Hope some of the readers of this blog are aboard with me :)

Ready for a 10% up day or close?  :-)

I will probably exit a good chunk of my leveraged positions today..Cash I am planning to hold for some time...

I believe you aint seen nuthin yet! Still lot of gloom and doom and bears around...This ofcourse will continue to provide fuel for the ongoing rally.

A couple of charts for your review below. Comments on the charts. 

The other important chart I am looking at is the weekly nifty with stochastics...Still not turned up but close...

As I said before...You aint seen nuthin yet!...Enjoy the charts.

Best.

Market Thoughts for the Week

Well I posted to buy on Friday...I dont know how many bought in that panic with me...I see a very good possibility of an intense rally. I do not know if this is THE bottom - In answer to some of the comments and emails I got - BUT odds are we get a very strong rally maybe to 4140 area....Above 4140 and the bears will die big time...But one step at a time...The roadmap should be 3600 first...Evaluate there...Then 3800...Again evaluate...Then 4000-4100...Again reevaluate...Above 4140, and then we have something big on our hands...But as I said, one step at a time...I think we have had a washout...Capitulation...Still I see people calling for 2600, 2000, 1800, ZERO...lol...Well maybe we will get 2960 on this round but it looks unlikely to me...If we do get it, I will still be buying in cash...These opportunities do not come often...I will compare this crash we have just had to what happened when the commies came to power with the  Manmohan Singh government...God I wish I had the guts to buy at that time....Instead I sold...Everything I had...Now with the experience I have..And all the bearishness I see around, I think this is the time to buy. Maybe its just 3-4 months of rally...But still its a rally...Buy the dips is my advice...If you are risk averse throw in some PUTs to hedge your risk.

On the charts, I see that weekly stochastics is way down...An up week will probably turn it up and if so we will be on a longer term buy...

On EWI scale, we may have completed a BIG wave A down with a monster B wave rally to follow into the mid of next year before we have another major decline...

But now is the time to buy...I expect we will have a retest of the lows - But its not a big probability...I am lessening my futures trades and accumulating in cash...I bought heavily on Friday and today we will have a big gap up and then an attempt to fill the gap...I will watch this and probably buy the dip today afternoon...

All the best. These opportunities come once in a lifetime. I dont profess to be a trading god or anything..Others are there here like that...But I can recognize good odds when I see it.

Some good stocks - Infosys, Bhel, NTPC, SBI, Mosar Baer, KSOIL, LnT. Other welcome to add to the list..I am still digging for gems amongst the carnage.

Charts will follow later.

Trade Safe.

Best.