Its the end of the year and looking back on this year, I am sure that no one would have expected what played out. Not to this extent. I expected some kind of top at 5800 and sold out on all my long positions and went flat....Market continued upward without me but I was content since we can never expect to catch the last 10% of any big move...Not unless you are very nimble.
The end of the bull run was marked by the famous Reliance Power IPO...Retail went crazy at the time this one came out and even though I warned all my friends not to put any money in this they still went ahead...loosing most of their money in the process. The day the IPO came out marked the bull market top and never looked back. Has retail learned their lesson? I think not. They still listen to the CNBC clowns - even now. Folks its not a bottom. Their is no such thing as a V bottom. It will take time.
So what do I expect 2009 to bring? It will be bittersweet for sure. The first half is bound to be bad..I expect we shall see new lows...Then after this one super bear market rally. Again pundits will come out calling a new bull market....Will it be? Maybe...But lets take it one step at a time...We will surely go through a basing process over the next 12-18 months...Ups and downs...But there will be super rallies to play...Lets be a trader for some more time and try to catch these big moves before turning on our investment mentality again. 2010-2011 may be the time another bull market starts. Now this is all speculation...But this is my expectation.
Okay enough of raving...Lets go the charts and more closer stuff...Chart with comments attached below. In the post below this one, I mentioned it was good to short at those levels since we were close to the upper area of the channel. Its in good profits right now...What next? My expectations and comments are on the chart. Enjoy.
Once we set this important low in Feb-Mar 2009 timeframe, I expect we shall get a huge rally from the lows...which may be around 1800-2000 on Nifty...this rally should happen into late 2009...maybe a 100% rally also...But let us see that when we get there.
Best and Wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous New Year!
