Now this is going to be a funda post...So if anyone wants to skip go ahead - But I would recommend to read it very carefully since its something that will affect our actual lives also...Not just trading.
In earlier post - Sajal(Long.Short) raised some very clear thought out and important points...I am pasting this in here as I think everyone should be able to see the counter points to my earlier post.
1.What I have understood from your explanation that you are trying to establish a theory where--i) US will suffer a depression in the coming years ;ii)while India and China will shine.I don't know if I understood correctly but at least that I got from your undertone.
Just here lies my problem. If your first premise is true then your second assumption should be wrong.
Rather it seems like the stupid "decoupling theory" that cropped up Nov -- early Jan last year in our market which was ultimately shattered by just 2 back-to-back down circuit in Jan.
My point is --
a) In 1944,Bretton-Wood accord established the US$ supremacy in exchange-rate world over.It is the US economy which creates and circulates US $.
b)Politically US is the super-power and I am not seeing any country who can dethrone US in near terms. So, Bretton-Wood will continue.
c)If US recovers then a mojor contribution will come from this US$ supremacy by Bretton-Wood.I mean other economies will help US to recover by forgoing their own growth.
d)What earnings you are looking today of the Indian Incs, can change dramatically within a quarter or two.So we should not give much importance to the present marksheet of them.
Lastly,in short,my point is If US suffers nobody in the rest of world can avoid sluggishness(at least).Once a French President said beautifully... tying with US is like sharing a life-boat with an elephant.Now I totally agree with most of these points...Dont get me wrong...I like to see the 2 sides of the coin...And most of these things, I have already thought about a lot...I will try to outline my thoughts in order - But remember one thing...Economics is really a very very grey area - No one knows what can happen..Its more of speculation at a different level which is why I prefer to stick to TA - Atleast we have that to guide our trading...BUT its always good to have an idea of the BIG PICTURE...It will help in our trading - Always.
My thoughts - Sure USA is the major power now...And logically we must conclude that IF USA goes into a depression, the whole world will. Now this might be true in the beginning of the slow period but eventually others will step up to the plate is what my view is.
In every major economic cycle, we see one major economy crumbling, and another one stepping up to take its place. These are not 1 or 2 year events but a big process. For example, before the last great depression, England was the super power...Now its just a shadow of its original form. Same as for the Roman, Persian and Greek empires. The rise and fall - roughly will span around 200-300 years. I think the fall of the USA has started. And the rise of some other powers have also started. I feel for sure that China will be one of them. India on the other hand, not so sure but I do think we will also come close.
Now, HOW is the big question? Where will demand or growth come from? Well it has to come from within..Simple..No other way. This is one thing which I feel pained about - India is a service oriented economy - The way it is now - We will not be able to survive for long. We need to start building from within - Thats the only way demand and growth gets going. In the first part of the 20th century, there was a massive wave of infrastructure growth in USA - this is what fed the growth cycle. Same needs to happen elsewhere. China is on the right path - Recent plans show that. I am disappointed with the so called stimulus plans India has now..We need to stimulate growth from within...Period.
Okay enough of my rant.. :)
Now I can be totally totally wrong here. Its just a debate. Economists are probably more than often wrong - Else we would have seen this crisis coming. So what can we do?...Just trudge along trading these markets until we see some light. I will remain very long term bullish until that multiyear bull channel is taken out on the sensex. If this happens, well, I dont want to think about the state of the system then. Lets keep our fingers crossed that this does not happen.
Okay I know I bored you guys...Here is something more before I stop. See the image below.
It’s a geographic representation of the impact this financial crisis will exert across various nations as projected by a recent LEAP report -
LINKLEAP/E2020 has studied the situation for the main countries and regions of the world along seven precise criteria enabling to measure their degree of immunity to the financial detonator.
CRITERIA:
Share of the economy dedicated to the financial sector
Share of the economy dedicated to services
Level of household debt
Quality of financial system and household assets
Relative amount of public debt (municipalities and social systems included)
Relative amount of external debt (trade and payment)
Share of capital-based pensions on overall pension fund system.
Based on these criteria, [the] team was able to identify 6 major groups of countries hardly related geographically but with similar profiles.
The report goes with a projection of approximately how long each of these regions will be affected and also elaborates on main challenges in overcoming this systemic crisis. Great stuff to say the least.
Now you can see, the US and UK will be the worst off...Africa - well nothing will happen to them because of this crisis. China and India will be in a recession period for 2-3 years (US will be in a depression spanning around 5-10 yrs by contrast)
[Different language on the image but you can see what they are saying here]
Now I stress again...All this is speculation. Makes for good debate but not much use in our trading - But it always helps to understand the BIG picture.
Thanks to Sajal for all the valid counter arguments.
Best,
Lee
