I dont have time for a detailed update today so will do so tomorrow.
Bottom line is 5 week FLD is not crossed. And the 2.5 week low is expected around Dec 12th - Which is next Monday. So we might not cross the 5 week FLD instead might try to but fail and then fall down a bit before moving back up.
This is really just speculation but I dont have any action signals yet. I might try some small shorts today via puts playing for the 2.5 week low OR I will use hedged futures to try to play for some downside. Target is however anybody's guess. 5000 seems to be strong support and ofcourse below that 4950-4875 area. 4800 is rock solid as per options data. So I think shorts should be hit and run only. Or be defensive in playing for it. The 5 week FLD cross is near - So we will have to be long from next week onward as per my calculations. Will post charts tomorrow.
Changed my mind. Posting a chart here with some comments and showing the current FLD position. Keep in mind no short signal is generated but I am trying some shorts with tight hedges. I will add until bit more higher into the 5200 area. I agree with Kumar Sir - above 5235, then better cover all shorts. Hedges should protect me till then. More comments on the rationale in the chart.