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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Is it over?

Not looking good folks...Yesterday was a clear harbinger of things to come..I was expecting a bigger and better bounce but did not happen to the extent of what I thought. But yesterday's market has damaged the charts and I do not see an easy way out of this....

Weekly stochastics has more or less crossed over to the downside. Weekly MACD did the dreaded kissback I was talking about and rolled over. Daily MACD also issues a sell..So what gives? We can see maybe a very small bounce today but ultimately I see a lot of weakness for us in medium term...Retest of the lows and maybe lower is on the cards.

Yesterdays market left me very frustrated. Market is doing pretty much what I expected it to do but I am just not timing my trades right...Or in other words trying to do too much and catch every swing... :( Probably I need to learn how to sit tighter in my trades!

But well better luck next time then.... ;)

BTW, how was my GOLD call? Good profits very made use of it?


Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Market Update - August 20th 2008

Later when I posted market thoughts, I mentioned we should have weakness and then strength later in the week. Played out pretty much as expected. Now the weakness might be over or very close to over. Yesterdays lows are important...Or slightly lower at approx 4270 levels. Below this the most important number as stated before is 4150.

I am trying to build some longs right now - this will be a very short term position..Or a scalp only...I will bail on weakness or if I get something close to 4520. But lets see how it plays out.

See hourly below. We look like we are very close to some important support levels. I think its critical we hold this area where we are at now.

Next the daily - I have added some notes on this. Nothing much more to say.

Then the weekly. Again same thing..Notes on the chart. We are quite close to a big intermediate term decline but before that I am expecting a decent bounce. How much we bounce I do not know yet..But it could very well be a lower high...Watch carefully - Things could get quite ugly soon. I think longs are risky unless you are very nimble....I am also looking to build up some shorts at higher levels.

I will post a 'Big picture' article after some time.
Trade safe ;)



Well folks...The GOLD bug has finally bitten :)

See chart below...I figure its in a nice ABC correction after which a good uptrend should start again....

Other reasons why GOLD should go up is flight to safety and inflation. Overall its a good a safe place to park some money. I believe we have some very tough times ahead and GOLD is a good place to park some money. I am buying GOLDBEES..No leverage...Bit by bit until I build a sizable position. Again note that this is a long term position without leverage so I will not be worried about short term price blips...

And we are very close to long term supports. The 770-740$ area is extremely strong support.

Buy the dips...

Watch out for my 2 next posts probably today itself where I will go over market thoughts and also take a look at the bigger picture....Tech and Funda...Will touch over GOLD again then.


Sunday, August 17, 2008

Market Update - Monday Aug 18th

Quick update today..Not posting any charts..Earlier posted charts still hold valid.

Now at this point, I am very uncertain about market direction..My gut says we are going to dip very hard in the first half of the week and then MAYBE we recover after that.

Either way, nos to watch is 4480 on upside, 4420 and 4350 on downside. Deep support is 4150..Below this, bears will rule big time..

I might just stay out and watch this week until I get some more clarity. I favour downside for now as I said last week 4470 was important - We broke that convincingly. So bears have the upper hand short term...Intermediate term, bulls have to hold 4350 If not, its a clear ride to 4150...And if thats broken, God save the bulls.

On a different note - One analyst whom I respect a lot and whom I also consider as a mentor of sorts - Rajan Sir has started a new blog -

Check it out...I will be adding this link also to my blog lists on the right shortly...