Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, August 30, 2008

State of Mind of the Nifty Trader!

Confusion confusion....what to do :-)

Btw, a note on this blog, we surpassed 10000 visitors a couple of days just a few months I think...I admit there were slow periods in between due to my work and other commitments but hopefully we can maintain the momentum going forward. Thank you for supporting this blog with your visits and comments....!

Weekend Analysis to follow soon....See above picture for my current state of :-)


Thursday, August 28, 2008

Expiry Day

Well market declined much more than what I expected it to in one day. However we are close to short term strong support(4200, 4150) so I do not rule out a fierce short term rally fuelled by short covering. Intermediate term and longer term, I do not see anything exciting to be bullish about but short term bears can feel some pain. Break 4160/4140 area and the bears will rule big time...Retest of the lows and even lower will come if this happens.

Trade Safe.


Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Make or Break!

More likely is break. Be extremely cautious here folks. I smell some serious danger ahead. Only thing I dont know yet is when the carnage will start. Over the past few days I have seen some very bullish messages around. Dont be fooled by all this noise. Let the market speak. What we have seen so far is weak hearted attempts to take out overhead resistances. But market says no. Today US markets look bullish so far..But I will remain net short from 4400 as I said I will do in previous update until I have a daily close above 4450 area. Then will reevaluate and post what I do next.

No charts today. Nothing has changed. Everything looks the same on the charts. The range compression we have seen so far says the next move will be a doozy...! Up or down is the big question and I vote for down until further notice! ;)


Sunday, August 24, 2008

Weekly Trends and Analysis

Analysis for the week ahead. I will present a bigger picture look at things after we look at the charts.

Starting with the daily. Some comments on the chart - open in new window to view. Here we can see the MACD is signalling danger. Last time it happened, we had a major downslide. Will we do the same this time? We need to watch this week very closely.

Next the weekly chart. Here the stochastics is trying to crossover to the downside. Last times it happened resulted in major mayhem in the markets. Break 4240 and its probably over for the market - Under this 4150 is also strong support but 4240 might be more important as its last weeks panic low.

Daily log chart shown here to present a different look at things. Note how we are back in the downtrending channel on this one.

Lastly hourly charts with comments on it. Nothing more to say here.

Overall charts and market are showing some confusing views. Prefer to sit out in cases like this. I am looking to build short positions at higher levels maybe starting today. So many strong resisitances at higher levels. This week being expiry week might see a lot of index management by the market makers. Might be a good idea to sit out...Daytrading can be done though. I have given some key nos in the charts above. Play in between these levels.
Okay now coming to the bigger picture.
Lets face it folks. We are in a major economic upheaval. We need to pay attention to the global picture also. Being in the US of A, I see things here and I am convinced beyond a doubt that we are probably in a very serious economic predicament - There are no jobs..Jobs are being cut as it is...People have stopped buying cars and houses...Overall tighening of spending. Flashback to 6 months back and it was very very different. People were upgrading their cars, their houses and so on...Its funny what a few months can do. The last few years saw people spending without any restriction money that they did not even have in the first place. Easy credit and uncontrolled spending is what lead to all of this. So pain is being faced right now and may continue for more time than what people are expecting.
Come home to India and as I said some time back, the PE growth in our markets have been quite pathetic over the past year. 8% or so. I mean that is really bad. We factor in inflation and the real growth becomes even more pathetic. We are in for some dire times folks. Be careful with your money.
BUT as they say, its always darkest before the dawn and the same is applicable here. Markets are a leading economic indicator. We will begin to recover before the broader economy. When?
I expect we shall see a major downturn over next few weeks...maybe a month and then go toward new lows....The next new low at maybe 3600-3400 levels will be a fantastic buying opportunity for the longer term. Again note that the levels and timeframes here are more of speculation that anything else. Take it with huge handfuls of salt :)
Its my longer term view on the markets and economy and so will be continuously updating them...I think we shall make a significant bottom within next 3-4 months...Then a big upmove into March of next year...More decline/consolidation after that...But let us see how the next few months play out first.