Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Saturday, March 7, 2009

One Year...

...Since the inception of this blog :)

My activity in this blog has been on and off at times..Even thought about quitting at times but came back strong..Started some new stuff but couldnt sustain that without harming other sides of the equation...But still, recently my blogging has gained more momentum and purpose and I am happy with that...Hope it continues the same way. I have always told my readers, if you like this blog, please tell your friends also.

I have always wanted to make this site more of a participation and sharing hub - something like here in the US..Hope my dream comes true...Need much more commenting and participation from you guys...

Join me in Wishing this blog a Very Happy 1st Birthday and many more to come! :)


Friday, March 6, 2009


Wow 34 comments in earlier post...Not exactly for the reasons I had in mind but it was good entertainment last night. I will continue to post the same way I always have...Naysayers or not...Anyway how was that bit of TA for you? The ABC upmove I called for...2620 on the dot..Yeah I'm an operator hehe...I will explain more on the ABC target toward end of this post.

Coming to all the hulabaloo yesterday...I guess when you have money on the line, its natural to become a bit emotional. When positions go my way, I cannot help but feel happy right? I am only human. I try to control emotions during a trade but after a trade gets over, I think I have a right to crow a bit. If anyone does not like it, please scram..This blog is not for you. When you have money on the line, when you put your trades on the line, its your credibility on the line...I dont know if anyone else has the guts to do it..Or follow up. What I do in this blog is unique in its own way..Its based on ACTUAL Trading..Unlike other big picture analysts who make viewpoints which are not tradable.

Comments - I enjoyed them a lot last night...And today morning...Lets keep the comments and ideas going...If you have thoughts, ideas etc, please do post them in the comments section...I am always on the lookout for new ideas, views, stock ideas etc etc...Most of the time I dont get time to look at different stocks so things like that would be appreciated in the comments section..

I think Neil compared this to I am fan of that site and happy that someone thinks I am close...But miles to go...

Okay now coming back to the ABC up target I called yesterday...Whats this Voodoo huh? Nothing simple ABC structure at minimum...Even though I did not trade it, I enjoyed that move after covering the short...

Explanation goes like this - After the downmove to support area 2540, it was natural to expect an upmove..This is why I covered. Next after that, a deep retrace...So see the first upmove was clearly impulsive. And so after the downmove taking support at 2560, we had an equivalent upmove leg again to 2620 and higher. So at minimum we have 3 waves in every move...A-B-C. If this is developing into a more bullish wave, we will have 1-2-3-4-5. Right now its too early to say but yesterday, the odds of having atleast a 3 wave move was high which is why I said we can get to 2620 and above...

Just thought I'd explain a bit on my call yesterday..Not sure if it sunk in..Some things can only be explained so much :) but if any questions, shoot in the comments section...Remember I dont have anything against constructive criticism...Its baseless accusations that I or anyone else for that matter cannot tolerate.

We shall see more on market later...Have a good weekend all.


Thursday, March 5, 2009

Intraday Update - March 06

1:10PM Update - Almost amazing isnt it..How the markets are following my ABC path given below..LOL..So much for my TA-less posts...Are you reading, you naysayers?

12:30PM Update - If we are doing an ABC pattern off the lows, 2620 is first target Nifty spot...2640-2660 next. We shall see if we get there....I am going FLAT into the weekend..And as I said before, I am stumped by the comments here...Best.


12:00NOON Update - Not saying anything else here..Not doing anything more here...I dont see a safe trade to take here...Also after reading the comments section, I am stumped...I have commented there to one guy..please read and comment also if you missed it before...Frankly I am stumped..To be sincere to myself, I looked back at the last week worth of my posts, I saw one talking about the 5th wave, I saw one about a real time flag breakdown, I saw one about the triangle breakdown, indepth analysis about this, targets, wave counts...etc etc...A lot of TA in my book. Frankly I dont know what this guy is talking about in the comments section of this post. Is this not TA? Do I trade on my whims and fancies?..I dont know what is missing in TA over last several posts...The only logical thing about the post and criticism is jealousy or a big loss he made on the long side...Same as the CALM-COOL guy and the Anonymous guys from before...Okay I am waiting for other readers to comment here...I am stumped for now...Good night.

10:20AM Update - Okay I covered - 2530 odd..Almost 100 pts profit as I said yesterday I entered at 2630 odd if you remember..One of my best trades of recent times...esp coz it came in one day...Anyway I fully acknowledge that it can go lower to maybe 2490-2450 range. But enough is enough..Taking profits here.

One of my main qualms is the 2 days holidays next week Tuesday and Wednesday..If this was not there, I would have been much more sure on my positions but now I might just do nothing else and wait till Thursday...Still a profit is ALWAYS a profit!


Thanks Sam n Shaq for the comments.

A little after the open - Well I am totally confused right now...My gut is saying to take profits right now...My logic is also saying something close..But still I am not sure...What should I do? :)
Any thoughts?


At The End

How does the chart look at the end of day -

I have to crow and thump my chest a bit here .. lol .. It was a beauty of a pattern - bearish flag breakdown - Called here in realtime. I also made a very good trade yesterday and I dont think its over yet. This should put end to doubts in anyones minds on whether TA works on not.

So what next?

The ART of Sword Catching - I see a lot of ppl doing this on a lot of forums and boards - Be careful guys..This is no ordinary market. Dont know why you have to bottom pick/sword catch - It has never ended well for anyone doing this. Just my thoughts but wait for some more time before bottom picking. We all think that 2500 will hold...What if it doesnt? We will have a panic crash. You dont want to be holding longs if that happens - Believe me!

The decline seems to be accelerating now. We still seem to be in wave3 of 5 to the downside. We will have a wave 4 one of these days - I do not know if it will come from 2500 or 2400 or 2300 - So not going to trade this...Holding short for now.


Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Charts and Intraday Commentary

12:00Noon Update - Well there you have...Breakdown which I called in realtime..Hope you guys enjoyed it and also made some coin :-) We might consolidate from here - a little maybe - but I think market is saying it wants to go much lower...Will not be a straight line ofcourse...I am 50% short from today morning..Ofcourse I wanted to be at 100% eventually but not doing anything more today...This shows why scaling into shorts is important - instead of waiting for higher levels.

11:05AM Update - See chart below...Could be important..I have increased shorts to 50%..Might not do anything else today...

10:10AM Update - Starting the short campaign with a small position...As I said before, I am just scaling in now...First 25% at 2630 area...More later...I will be shorting more as time goes by today...Not going to post level by level

I am surprised at the lack of strength today...Anyone, any thoughts why?
I dont know how far up we go...Right now, global markets look week. Need to wait and watch how our markets react. Either case, I will begin the shorting campaign today..Slowly scaling in like I did before also...Keep watching this space for intraday commentary.

Daily with some important comments outlined on the chart -




I find it quite interesting as to the timing on how they release these stimulus news :)...In the morning I got up and came to know RBI has cut rates again..

I wonder on what basis they do this? Was it preannounced? I dont know...Did they see something in the markets to do this? I dont know...

Its just a side thought I had..But again it shows that in trading, the charts are best to be relied on..Ignore all news...Still I know many new guys focus on news, tips, rumours etc etc...I have always told people like this - Quit now Else market will make you quit....I generally watch cn(BS) for entertainment...nothing else...When market goes down 5%, its fun to watch these guys run around like headless

Okay anyways coming to the market...As you could see from my realtime updates in post before, I covered all shorts...It was very good timing...I still got it..hehe :P
And I also said I started scalping on the long side. I do have a small long position even now which I did not post here as it was a risky trade and I did not want anyone else to get into trouble because of me. But nevertheless, I will close this today if we do get the anticipated rally.

Next, I will go back to shorting mode again...Scaling in as I explained before..This time range for scaling in will be 2680-2740...maybe a bit higher also...The plan is to keep selling those little rallies of hope.

Anyone still holding some short term longs, its a good opportunity to get rid of it and go short...The RBI has given us this chance...Dont miss it :)

Post with charts and then later intraday updates etc will follow today.

On a sidenote - I would like it if you guys comment more...In the posts...Does not even have to be about the posts...Just tell me who you are, what you do etc..Just nice to know who are my faithful readers :)...And then we can also get into discussing about the markets and moves and trading..Why not? I mean the comments section can be used as a forum also....I am also thinking of adding in 'disqus' over here..For those that dont know, it makes the comment section like a forum thread which is pretty good if the discussions get more active...We'll see

Okay later then!


Tuesday, March 3, 2009

The Fifth

12:45AM Update - Okay guys...after closing shorts close to the lows of the day so far, I am trying some scalps on the long side...Its too much work to post these trades here and also follow up on them since timeframe is very small..So I do not plan to do so...Cheers..Have a good trading day. I think we will get chance to reload shorts higher up around 2700 maybe even higher...Bye!
11:45AM Update - Got out of all shorts at 2590 odd...I think we can still go down to 2550-2500 range but I will err on the side of safety...Good profits...So Cheers!
Not planning to go long for now...Not positional definitely...Cannot rule out a bounce to the 2680-2740 range in Nifty SPOT...So I might intraday scalp..Nothing else...Best!
It is said that wave 3s are panicky, emotional moves where the majority of the selling happens and wave 5s on the other hand, are just slow descents/grinds down born out of apathy toward the markets. The analogy can be of "boiling a frog".

The fifth wave also brings about a wider acceptance of economic woes among the general public..Everyone knows things are bad...Everyone knows market is never going to recover again..Everyone knows we are in a recession OR worse a depression.
(compare this to sentiment when we were at 6350)

Above sounds familiar?

Yep where we are right now...The 5th wave of C...Which means the final decline before we get a very very significant rally upward. Maybe even a doubling from 2000-2200 odd levels wherever the market actually bottoms.

Within this 5th of C, we seem to be running in the 3 of 5 of C. See charts below and should make things more clear...

I expect this current selling wave might not breach 2500 so I will look to cover my shorts if I can...And try to again reshort higher for lower targets which cannot be determined accurately right NOW. If the market does not give me a good entry, I will not do anything but instead will plan how to trade the next big move up....Thats probably where the next BIG money will be made. Moving plan for now but I will fine tune it today and mention in the intraday updates.

Chart -

So thats my rough plan FWIW...Its a moving target and so I will adjust my trading accordingly...Always the last bit of declines will be tough to trade successfully.

My first target of 2550-2525 which I have been calling for long is very close. :)

PLEASE NOTE - VERY IMPORTANT: Even though I said there can be a small bounce at 2525 area and even drew the same on the charts, there does not have to be one...It can be a straight move down also - simple capitulation. I would not be surprised with this. The only problem I have is HOW to trade it..Just hold onto shorts or hedge somewhere in between? Well whatever I do, I shall post intraday.


Monday, March 2, 2009

Fear of Regret

1:00PM Update - Dont know...I dont see much reason for me to cover the shorts I have left. I can be wrong. As I said before, you can cover and try to reshort higher if you can but I am sitting tight...If we rally into 2740 range tomorrow, I will add back the shorts I covered yesterday...Maybe the last update for today. :)

11:45AM Update - Well we got that first obligatory bounce to 2680 and decline back. Now we might be setting up a good bounce here into the 2740-2750 area. So risk averse folks close shorts and try to short higher. I might just sit tight. Wait and watch whats going on. 2740-2760 if we get there should be a good short for those not already short.

I will start first with a section from the 'Zurich Axioms'

The Second Major Axiom
"Always take your profit too soon"

Amateurs on Wall Street do it. Amateurs in poker games do it. Amateurs everywhere do it. They stay too long and lose. What makes them do it is greed, and that is what the Second Axiom is about. If you can conquer greed, that one act of self-control will make you a better speculator than 99 percent of other men and women who are crambling after wealth.

Always take your profit too soon, the Second Axiom says. Why "too soon"? What does that puzzling little phrase mean? It refers to the need to cash out before a set of winning events has reached its peak. Don't ever try to squeeze the last possible dollar from a set. It seldom works. Don't worry about the possibility that the set still has a long way to go -- the possibility of regret. Don't fear regret. Since you can't see the peak, you must assume it is close rather than far. Take your profit and get out. It is like climbing a mountain on a black, foggy night. The visibility is zero. Up above you and ahead of you somewhere is the peak, and on the other side is a sheer drop to disaster. You want to climb as high as you can. Ideally, you would like to reach the peak and stop exactly there. But you know "ideally" doesn't happen often in real life, and you aren't naive enough to think it is going to happen now. So the only sensible course is to stop climbing when you have reached what you consider a good height. Stop short of the peak. Stop too soon. Sure, when the fog clears and the sun comes up, you may find you're less than halfway to the top. You could have climbed a lot farther. But don't nurse this regret. You aren't all the way up, but you are up. You've made a solid gain. What's more, you've made it and kept it. You are a good deal better off than all the blunderers who scrambled blindly to the peak and toppled over the other side.

This happened to a lot of stock market speculators in our Indian markets also recently!

Carrying out the precept of the Second Axiom seems to be extraordinarily difficult for some. The main difficulty may be the fear of regret.

The fear is particularly common and particularly intense around the stock market.

Okay the market - Well the triangle is now officially broken. I am not going to post a chart of this today. Most blogs on the net already have this so you can look that up elsewhere.

So what next. This break gives a target of around 2250-2000 odd on the Nifty. Does not have to happen but thats what this breakdown is targeting. It will not happen immediately or in a straight line - Expect sharp rallies in between. BUT its not time to be bullish yet...Not yet...As I have been saying for long, bottom will be in March last week or April mid to end.

We can target 2525-2550 area first and maybe then have a bounce to the downtrend
line of the triangle...Or back to test the breakdown point of the triangle before collapsing again. Again this too will not happen easy - It will be a slow and tortuous ride.

I am not sure yet what to do with the rest of my shorts. I will wait and watch the markets today before making a decision. Maybe do nothing at all.

Why did I post the excerpt/axiom above? Well just wanted to say its okay to take profits early as a follow up to my earlier post. I used to regret doing this a lot..GREED is a very strong emotion just like FEAR(the 2 primal emotions that drive the stock market)...But nowadays, I tell myself - Its just another trade! Believe me - having this attitude in your trading will improve you as a trader by a lot.

I will post intraday updates later today.


Sunday, March 1, 2009

Round and Round - Part Deux

1:00PM Update - Covering around 50-60% of my shorts here..Mostly the puts and some of NF shorts...Reasons because I want to go to sleep and dont want to watch the market here - its like watching PAINT DRY! :P AND ofcourse profits are always profits!

Next thing is looks like 2660 is holding for covering and watching seems good and prudent...

Lastly I dont like this action...We could be basing for a quick move upward. Not sure anymore..SO when in doubt, be safe..We shall see tomorrow what to do with the rest of the shorts..This relative strength in our markets has me skeptical for now..But not fighting with the market..Lets see if we are setting up an important buy very soon. 2500 area obviously remains important medium term. Still holding few NF shorts.


11:10AM Update - Okay market is hovering around the 2700-2690 mark so far. I am not convinced this is the low of the day. I think we see more downside today itself. Be careful with bottom picking. Either way I want to cover some of my shorts today. I will wait and watch for some more time before taking a decision.


Okay next our markets for today. Might be pretty bad with the US futures also looking down. I will post intraday updates in this thread itself.

The triangle structure spanning the past 4 months has been lending support to nifty so far. Today might be the day it finally fails - A close below the line will confirm it. You can see how they stick saved the market past 4 sessions to avoid a meltdown. A daily close below 2730 will have me interested AND intraday move below 2650 will bring about a big move.

A gap down is also almost surely assured today. I think the selling climax I was looking for so long might finally be here :)

Position updates if any - I will state them in the intraday updates here itself.

Chart for now -


Nifty Weekly Comments - Stochastics on a FIRM sell. I trust this indicator a lot - people who used to visit my blog from the beginning would remember more on how I used to use this for trading.

We might be close to a selling climax. Not going to try to pick bottoms until I see some bullish confirmations or unless we get close to 2200-2000 NIFTY levels..

One other thing - One bullish looking stock that I think looks interesting is CAIRN. Nice volumes and a possible triangle breakout. After a long time, I am looking at a stock with a bullish perspective. Keep an eye on it. Not sure if its a good idea to start scaling into it now itself or wait a bit more...I am also bullish on OIL..So CAIRN is a good proxy play.

Intraday comments later.