Friday

So big global turbulence going on while our markets are closed. Dont know why this always seems to happen when we are closed :) I have wondered about this before also on the blog..Its weird. Anyhow, it is what it is.

I still stand with my earlier views. I.E the 80 week low did come on Oct 4th at 4700 and we are unlikely to break that for next 4-5 months(till the 40 week cycle top). Next the 5 week low - I did mention it came likely came in last week. But not very sure now - it could be right ahead of us maybe today. Then the 10 week low likely around end of November. Maybe we will just chop around a bit more.

Looks like today market will gap down below 5200 so 5150 becomes important and below that 5100. But unlikely to get so far - Atleast I think so. But we are at potential supports here and so we might get a good size bounce here and then we can re-evaluate. There is pretty good put support at 5100 and 5000 so I do not expect these to break this month. I can be wrong but just seems extremely unlikely unless something really really bad happens on a global scale.

I mentioned in last time update I will be using these scary declines to buy back into stocks..All with the expectation that the 80 week low is behind us and the next 10 week low end of November will provide a base for a good end of year rally into Jan/Feb timeframe. Will phase out my buying until Nov end. Need to wait and watch.

Hope I answered all your queries here Aly.

Have a good trading day All.

Best,
Lee

80 week low confirmed

Yeah I know quite late. But better late than never right?..Anyhow I have the 80 week low confirmed on Oct 4th at 4740 odd. And the next 5 week low came up much higher at approx 5200. This 5 week low came up approximately where we expected our 80 week low. So overall since this low came up very early, its bullish in cyclic terms.

Latest ST outlook -



As you can see in the chart, the 80 week nest of lows is confirmed. And so we are cleared for atleast a few months worth of rise. If I have to guess, I would say cleared for upside until Feb end. This is when we can expect the next 40 week cycle to top. But lets take one step at a time.

What am I doing? - After selling most of my longs at approx 5300-5350 range, I accumulated a good portion back as per my earlier post in the 5200-5280 range. So still net long but have more ammunition to add longs if we do get some one or two day scary declines. It will be a good opportunity if we get that.

Next we have the 10 week low around end of Nov. So this can be another good opportunity to add to longs. So buy the dips will be my mantra going forward.

Target wise - I have a very rough target of 5700 based on Hurst methodology. But I havent fine tuned this yet. Sustaining above 5700 can open up 5900 and even a challenge of our all time highs.I will do a detailed post on this tomorrow. This is based on FLD(future line of demarcation) crosses which generates targets per Hurst Methodology..I havent spoken about this yet but will do so tomorrow.

Best,
Lee