Crucial Juncture

No other way to describe it. It is a crucial point right now for the bull/bear case. I am not talking about short term here but little bit longer term.

Earlier I was looking for the 80 week low to be a good low..I mean a serious long term low below 4700 maybe closer to 4000 which would give lot of confidence for going long for a longer period of time. However, past couple of weeks action has had me rethinking on this. Now this might just be a way of conditioning by the market where after the weak shorts are weeded out, we just continue the decline in earnest and break all previous supports and lows. Remember this is still a possible scenario. However seeing the strength so far..the strength in internals and so on..Its making me think..that we might not go below 4700 this year. Maybe not even close. I still expect some basing and downward moves till end of this month to set the 80 week low..But am thinking it JUST MIGHT be a HIGHER low. Now this is just speculation at this point. But I am getting ready my 'BUY LIST' of stocks. To buy after this 80 week low..or during it scaling in.

I know market is supreme..prices are king..this is the reason why I have to tone down my bearish expectations at this point. Frankly speaking, it would have just been much better for the market to go lower than 4000 now itself and make a long lasting low. But it looks like that is not meant to be and we might not get much better than 4700 to buy here. So bottom line is expect weakness till end of month but it might be nothing more than a consolidation before the next big move up.

If this is what the market decides to do..I do not think it will be a long lasting low but just a low for this current cycle and the REAL long term lows will only come sometime next year...Preferably after the March-April timeframe - that will be when the next 40 week cycle tops out...And then bottom toward June-July timeframe. So again bottom line is, we seem to be creating some type of bottom here with backing and filling and it will be a good enough bottom until March-April of next year when we might go back to BEAR MODE.

All speculation at this point of time. But I think this is what is happening. So time might be close to buy for a few months to take advantage of those gains. I am not talking about FNO here..But cash..I will post when I start buying but I already started looking for good stocks with potential..Still refining the list. I will post here when I am ready.

Chart -


I think whatever I said till now shows up in this chart. For now indecision and probably and consolidation kind of move lower until the overbrought situation is resolved after which we can move above 5235 and higher. Frankly I dont like it..I wish it worked out differently but the market is what it is..And fighting the market will quickly bankrupt us. Our aim should always be to get on right side of market. Now its indecisive but I think market will show its hand in next couple of weeks. Till then hit and run trades will be optimum. If you know how to trade intraday, do that..else do nothing at all..Covering the few shorts I have today will my aim..I might just change it to puts to reduce my risk..And also I am looking at longer term stock holds toward end of month - I mean buying into stuff. I will post on that when I do..with prices..so that we can track it in a spreadsheet. I used to do this for FNO but it became such a hassle that I stopped. I think I can do it for stocks..So I will be doing the same very soon.

Chart shows last 5 week low came in Oct 4th..so now in last 5 week cycle. So like I said its downward right now..But as of now it looks so far like its not a new bear move but a consolidation before another move upward. Now this is just speculation on my part..Market will show its hand soon. Need to see where this might stop...Important points are 5000 and 4900 areas. Breaking 5000, can get us to 4925 area quickly. Breaking 4900, will get us to 4800 area. More than this at this point I see as doubtful - looking at the strength shown by market so far. I know all this can change in one day..This is why I am waiting till end of October before making any longer term decision. Till then hit and run only. Protection of capital is supreme.

I know someone asked me about INFY cycles..I tried so much couldnt get clean data for it..so many splits and bonuses that prices are skewed. If anyone has clean data, please feel free to share with me..CNXIT data is preferred rather than INFY..I will post an analysis after that.

EDITS: Market open: Covered all shorts. I am just going to trade intraday from now on. Atleast until some more clarity emerges. Did some longs..now covered and doing some shorts..Will keep doing this for some time

10:00 AM: Interesting..Looks like intra resistances are starting to kick in..Back in short like I mentioned..But I am doing intra for now..So I wont be posting updates on trades from now. But my broader view is posted above.

Best,
Lee

Oct 12th/13th

Well after I well and slept yesterday, the market just took off and looks very strong right now. Even I have started questioning my earlier views - have to say looks damn bullish. I am still holding the shorts with the hedges. Today I will roll the hedges upward. Oct 12/13th - this is the timeframe I mentioned for a top. We are there. Now who has the guts to short? lol :)

I will be back a little later with more thoughts. Today we have to see how the market deals with 5150-5200. Above this and I think game changes.

Best,
Lee

INFY..

..Thats what will drive things today. And well the IIP number also although to a much lesser extent. We can speculate a lot about the results - IF it will be good or bad..But ultimately its the markets's REACTION to the results that will matter.

I dont have much more to add to yesterday's post. Except I am beginning to see a lot of bullish signs but my timing model is still saying low at end of October. So I will respect my system. Will continue to try and short but I will be reducing my aggressiveness on this for the time being. Its better to live and fight another day. Things are murky right now. Hit and Run trades seem to be the best option for now.

EDIT- 11:15AM IST: Well 2 big new items are out. Not so impressed with action so far. My earlier call was for a top today or tomorrow(Oct 12th/13th timeframe). So far it is looking quite possible. Reshorted today back at higher levels. I have hedged with 5100 calls. Now will wait and watch. We need to get below 4900 area to start feeling comfy on bearish positions.

Best,
Lee

Dicey here...

...Have to admit yesterday's rally was a good one..I dont care much for rallies that show a big gap up and then do nothing for the full day. Yesterday's was good..Went and tested support at which I covered a big amount and then tried to reshort as we went higher. I say it is good because this is how a strong rally is built. Test support and then try to make a move higher.

Not that it makes much of difference. Today also looks like a gap up. So now I am uncertain how to deal with this. Do I cover? Do I hold and watch? Do I add to shorts? Dont know. Dangerous here either position. As I mentioned before, the Oct 12/13th date was when I was expecting a top to come. So still on target but price wise this is going much above what I expected. Today if it clears 5030 and stays above, it opens up the 5150-5200 range again. So lot of pain to take if you are short. So I am confused :) Whats new. If we go above 5200 without much of correction, then have to admit we might be going much higher. However I still think we have one more downmove lurking in the shadows which will come once majority is once again bullish. Too many unknowns out there..Infy results is another one..I have posted some thoughts on this in earlier post's comments section.

However, for today, will wait for clues after opening and act accordingly. Will post updates. I am holding some shorts so its a toss up as to what to do at this point. Will watch price action and make a decision.

EDITS:
1. Looks like going up..Covered almost all shorts..Will look to readd back later. Intraday scalping till then

2. Very uncertain here..Shorting back in slowly. They never make it easy do they?

3. Part booking and reshorting higher might be a good plan of action here. Will add back later. INFY results is also a wild card here.



Best,
Lee

Market Updates - Oct 10th

So its pretty sure now I think..That we got the 5 week low on Oct 4th. And that we are in the last bounce from there. I think this is an ABC move from the lows and I think I mentioned last week, we have done the A looks like and in a B now after which we might get a small move high in a weak C. I mentioned Oct 12th as an important date. I see this bounce or sideways move will continue into then. Price wise I already mentioned - 4910-4950 range and then 5030. On Friday market couldnt sustain above 4900 and came down from there. So shorts in that area did well. If we get some more down from here, part booking and reshorting higher will be good. Trade management is important to reduce risk and also remain on right side of the market.



Ok so bottom line is - 5 week low came on Oct 4th. This is the last 5 week cycle before our expected 80 week nest of lows(nest of lows means its also the 40, 20, 10 and 5 week lows). So its an important low. And it will come around 5 weeks from Oct 4th. So around the Nov1st week-Oct 31st timeframe. Will be watching closely in this timeframe for a low and also a chance to buy into some good stocks on cash side. I know there were some comments and questions around this - remember I am waiting for broader market to bottom before looking at stocks. So we will start doing that in Oct end.

But first more work to be done on the downside. Lets watch Oct12/13th as a possible timeframe for topping out this 5 week cycle and heading down. Why does it top early? Because its a bearish 5 week cycle being so late in this 80 week cycle. So it tops early and should head down for 3 weeks or so after that into our 80 week low. Price might remain in this range until Oct 12th before heading down hard OR it might have started already - I am not very sure. But risk reward favours short side greatly right now until a clean close above 5030-5050 range. Keep shorting the rallies till then with some trade management.

A note to all - Please dont ask me questions about you personal trades. I will no longer answer. I did not ask you to get into any trade - then why consult with me on getting out? Is it fair? Also dont ask me questions like - is market going up? Is it going down etc etc. I am posting my clear cut views here daily. If you cannot get that info from here, then I cannot help you. Sorry for being a bit brash. But I have been getting some tiring mails and chats. See its technical doubt or a genuine question, I will answer. Just cannot spend time and energy to try and help with others trades at this point of time.

Will post edits if anything new comes up today.

Best,
Lee