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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Keeping things small..

Sorry folks for the late update...not much to say...the bull juggernaut continues...Just watching how long it goes..

I am short but in smaller size..and not going to worry about all these silly upmoves...Its too late to go long so definitely not doing that..

If we do get some kind of pullback soon, we shall see then.

For now, short and watching...I will take off the hedge if I get an hourly sell..till then maintaining status quo.

Charts later..Bit busy today. I have some interesting thoughts to share but not now.


Wednesday, March 25, 2009

What am I doing?

PS: DONT IGNORE this one either...

12:00 NOON UPDATE: Could this be a flag? If so, breakout above will make market run up quick. Not sure for now..But if it does, its good for an intraday trade.


Okay guys...You saw I shorted a bit yesterday...I added some more today...And I hedged this with 3000 April calls. I am not sure at this juncture what we are going to do next...I see at minimum a pullback and then a move higher...It is actually too late to go long which is why I am not doing this...

For the bullish case, we need to have some sort of pullback here..else I am sorry to say, we are going into bubble mode and we will have a fast crash-like move...I am not raving bearish anymore..more like remember my positions reflect that...

I mentioned earlier that I am looking more at swing signals(thanks to kpl) for trading signals going forward..So that I keep out of trouble going forward.

See the 20hr swing below.

Coming to sentiment...Its turned very bullish now..I would be cautious on longs..If we get a decent pullback I shall look to go long..Ofcourse will reevaluate at that point...Frankly this is a very confusing juncture..tough trading.

EW structures...I have some interesting ideas..One bullish(the obvious one) and the bearish one...Now since the obvious is more often incorrect, I would be cautious. I am thinking STILL along the bearish lines...For those familiar with the EW lingo, I think its a bearish wave4 flat or a wave4 triangle still..with w5 down still to come..However we need to respect momentum here and wait for some confirmation on downside...tough to say right now...But I will post these scenarios with charts later..maybe tomorrow....If anyone else has thoughts on this, please comment.

Intraday setups - I dont have anything at the moment but I shall post if I do see something interesting...note that these setups and patterns dont come often but when they do, we can bank some good coin and low risk.


Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Trying a small short...

...not going nuts on this short...very small compared to my normal short...And I have a hard stop at yesterdays highs...above that and I'm out...else I am playing for a pullback to 2860 odd...maybe a bit lower also...but let us see...

I will share some charts in a little while.


Just a small break

Read all the comments...Just wanted to say some stuff..which I also posted in the comments section of previous post -

Everyone..really...No defeat and all...I will come back with more analysis..And will come back stronger...

Why did I say I am taking a break?

Just regrouping..rethinking..evaluating what went wrong and so on..

When a big loser happens, we need to do that, else emotional trades will happen.

For the record -

My last short trade - From 2600 odd till 2800 I shorted...My AVG price was around 2720...I had several signals to cut and run in between which I ignored...This was my first mistake. Adding a lot to a losing position was the second...

However breakout above 2840 was my last point as I must have mentioned several times in previous posts..Market gapped up above and never looked back...

To be totally clear...From 2720 to 2860 around 140 pts loss...If you take all the earlier gains, this is not so BAD....BUT thats a traders folly and false justification..For me this was the biggest loser trade so far..So I needed to step back and see what went wrong..For me it was more of mindset that anything else...I need to clear that and come back fresh..

I will do so soon.

Best and Thanks to everyone for their comments..I know a lot of bears lost money...You can see how much I lost above...

Dont worry too much..Its all part and parcel of the game.


I am trying some new stuff..i.e using the 20period swing system on different timescales to see which one is better. I might post some trial entries later today with this..The only thing confusing me for now is which timeframe to use...1hour or 30 min swing...Trying to evaluate which is better.

Regd outlook - This rally has gone too far..We should get some kind of pullback and consolidation after which we will make an attempt to take out the highs...So it looks like we have to put bearishness on the back burner and try to trade on the longer side and buy dips...

But this will come later...I dont think the pullback is done yet..I will use the swing indicators to show where to go long or where to go short.

More later.


Sunday, March 22, 2009

Intraday Thoughts

EDIT: Just wanted to make things clear..I am totally flat now..Not trading for a little while..Generally after some losers, its better to regroup and come back..So thats what I will do..Frankly I am surprised all the bullishness..But generally market defies logic...So maybe a new bull is starting..Who knows...More thoughts safe out there...And dont trust anything..bye.

EDIT: Dont know..Dont know..I am capitulating fully and going flat..Will decide on future positions later...Now just going to chill a bit...Better to let things sink in and not trade emotionally...Things look very bullish for now...Atleast for today.

Okay guys...The US market futures has done bears in...I am capitulating a bit over here...Covering all option position shorts in loss...Also rolling the future shorts to April...Also hedging ALL of them with 2900 calls. Dont know how this turns out...But I cannot see any reason to be bullish now..Maybe I am wrong and will be bankrupt soon...Feel FREE to fade me.. :)

Below is what I wrote few hours back...I still feel the same...But US futs gapping up has obviously thrown a spanner in all bears works...Let us see how this works out..
Tough trading..

Past several hours, I've been reviewing market data and charts..I've also been reading several blogs and forums...And overall, what I read is scaring me and making me question my earlier views in past few posts where I was toning down on my bearishness...

I see that everywhere, the bulls have started hoping against hope again...And on
what basis? That things cannot be TOO bad...HOW did they reach such a conclusion?
Price has done absolutely NOTHING on a medium term basis...So WHY bullish? I am pretty surprised...At best I expected some neutral sentiment..Price has not moved anywhere over past 3-4 months..So because of this one would expect more neutral sentiment...The bulls are back though...Last week pushed sentiment to the more bullish side...Maybe they will be right and we will push higher up...I continue to be skeptical But lets play point to point...