Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Super Bounce...What Next?

What a rally...I got up today morning and looked at my screen and could not believe my eyes...lol..Being so used to seeing -4 and -5 % down for past few days, couldnt believe 5% rally...Nice...SO...What next? Are we done here?

I think there is some more pain to come to the downside...Why? Because the EWT structure is suggesting one more low..I have atonated this in one of the charts below...Now pls note that this can be a higher low also even though unlikely...I think we should target 3600 and 3550 in coming few days..After that what can happen?...We will test this bottoming area several times over and over...Thats the only way a bottom is formed...We will pick up but I think now we need to start looking at some good stocks to pick up...Looking over past fews data some stocks that really stand out to me is NTPC, INFY, RELPET, RELIANCE, BHEL and some others also but these look real good...Wait for some more pullbacks to buy OR buy more...

Okay now see the EWT counts on the daily I have tried to do...Dont take this as exact..EWT is just an attempt to try and determine possibilities...For trading we have to rely on other tools..


Okay having said that, we are in the last waves of the last wave...See A, B, and C has completed
4 waves; The fifth however extended...And out of this the 5th should start soon..Probably today..This targets 3600-3550 area...Also note this is the bottom of the channel - the doomsday channel as I have referred to it in previous posts :) .. Not sure if we get that far down even though its very very likely...But I feel we can confidently buy the panic lows that come within the next week or so...



Now the weekly...Several times I have mentioned how the weekly stochastics are a good longer term top and bottom spotter...As you can see...Almost there but not quite...We can wait for it to cross over...Before jumping in all out! ;)

Best.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Market Thoughts

Halo Friends...

Interesting day it was on Monday...Low volume...And FIIs and DIIs figure showed no big selling...So who sold? I think retail capitulated yesterday...Atleast to some extent....What I found most interesting here was how some midcap stocks went down heavily without any real reason...

One thing I have noticed is when we get very close to a market top, speculative midcaps start flying...daily 5%, 10% up and exact opposite at the bottoms...This is nothing but retail speculators getting active..Often very late to the game...Happens regularly and will keep happening I guess...

So what am I doing now?...Holding tight to longs and adding...Throwing in hedges and booking profits on them so that my cash longs dont suffer too much...Still in the red...But adding on as we go down...Markets are irrational creatures...When we go up we overdo it...When we go down, we overdo it...I think we are overdoing it now...How much more? Not sure but watch 3950...This is very very important in short term...Break this and it opens up 3800, 3600 and then 3400...
But now is a good time to be doing a bit of SIP daily into quality stocks...

Not posting charts today but above figures should be important...

One thing here is we need atleast 2 weeks of sidewise to up to turn the trend back up...So if you arent long yet, wait for this....Weekly stochastics as I have mentioned below should tell us when its safe to go all in....I will update when I see this happening..

Best.