Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Closed NF and HEDGE

EDIT: DUMPED HEDGE ALSO. Going to sleep and dont want to keep this open. What makes me feel bad about this trade is that the futures buy was almost a perfect entry yesterday but the trade got messed up due to the hedge..I learnt a lesson but will share more over weekend.

Overall a bad trade. Oh well still a good week. The hedges were not properly done on this trade. I know why now but will post this and more thoughts over the weekend. Going flat for the weekend...We will see more next week.... 

Sheet also updated above. Have a good weekend all...


Close Nifty Futures at 2755. Hedge(PUTS) are still open. The way I hedged this was all wrong..Even though the trade entry was really good, the hedge was too large to make the trade effective. I will try to rebalance this trade today....Watch here for updates.

Later tomorrow I will write more on the hedge and what went wrong. I am also learning and experimenting in this.


Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Trade Updates

Closed short from 2963 at 2704
Close Hedge from 102 at 31

Opened Long at 2706
Opened Hedge at 102

All positions updated in sheet above.
This 'long' trade is a short term trade. Please avoid if risk averse!

Edit: The reason being I am not very confident on this trade since daily trend is firmly down.


Market Updates

Well got the bounce...On quite weak volumes...But globals are in deep red now...So looks like we can retest the lows and maybe slightly lower. If so, I will likely take profits on short positions and go flat. And look to reshort higher. Will update positions if I do this.

Chart and comments below.

Dont miss the couple of posts below this explaining the new position update feature on the blog.


Trade Methodology

Got some questions on the trades so thought I will outline some stuff here...

First of all the PE option mentioned above was actually CE being a hedge. I have fixed that - It was my mistake. I have also updated all the figures with latest values. I will do this every end of day or if I do take a new position.

Now about the positions - I am not the kind of trader who trades daily. Only positional. Now I might 'manage' the position and the hedges some days but mostly will let them be. Coming to above positions, it was a double short position before but I covered half of it at 2740 which is what you can see above the open trades - did this since I was expecting a nice bounce which we did get. The other half is still running - I will decide when to close this based on market moves. Whenever I do this, I will update the sheet and also post a blog entry mentioning the exit. Once this is done, overall profit figure will be updated and the trade will move to closed trades.

Then regarding the hedge, why do I have double the futures position? Well most of the time, I try to make it delta neutral especially if I am not fully confident and then I will manage the hedge positions depending on my assessment of the risk in the trade. See the simple idea is that futures will move much faster than options...So if I profit, I am cutting down on profit with the hedge but it will be a profit...On the other hand, if position moves against me, I have protection against account blowup. I have written a good deal on this a few posts below this one - And why exactly I follow this method of risk management vs. hard stops.

Now coming to following these trades. Since these are already open, I would not recommend trading them. If I do new ones, you can try but remember its totally your decision and your risk..In fact, I would feel much more comfortable if people inclined to trade this first paper trade and then follow if at all you need to...Best always is to trade using your own analysis and use mine for confirmation!

I will post market thoughts and updates a little later today.


Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Some Updates

Well faithful readers on this blog....You would have noticed that I have added a spreadsheet on top which essentially shows my trade performance since the beginning of this year...

Some notes: 

- The detail on the left shows details on the actual trades I have taken. I think the tabs are self explanatory.

- On the right hand side, you can see the details of the profits/losses which I booked so far and the positions still open and unrealized P&L. It also shows the performance record till date since beginning of year.

Some thoughts here:

- Why am I doing this? - 2 reasons. One is to act as a trading journal for me. I was already doing this - Now its public for all to see...Thats all.

2nd reason...Well this one is a bit more entrepreneurial in nature in that I want my performance to be recorded in case I ever become a money manager...Now I must confess..This is one of my ambitions...Well whether it comes true or not...I want to do this...

Okay...So how can you use this?...Well whenever I trade, I have already made clear before, I take hedges to protect myself...You can see this for yourself in above trades. Be very careful IF you try to follow my trades...usual disclaimers apply.

I would like to hear comments on my new venture and ideas..So dont be shy...let the comments flow...I am willing to consider any changes if valid and needed.

And also, if any one of you have ideas on what it will take to be a money/fund manager, please let me know or get in contact with me at my email id. 

Now you can see all the details on the sheet..I have adjusted a bit..Please do note that options are just a hedge for my main position... Also dont take any positions until I take new positions..I will update when I do this and also do a blog update.

If you want to, you can click on the right hand side icon of the spreadsheet to open in a new window and see everything in detail.

Again I stress..Do not take positions based off this just like that. Follow strict money management rules as I do...And as always disclaimers apply.


Monday, January 12, 2009

Position Update

No charts. Just a quick update on trades and the market. 

Some bounce is possible to relieve the oversold levels...So I took off some more of my short positions but still holding core position with hedges. If market rallies to 2900-2950 area, I will add back to shorts and also close my hedges - we will see when we get there. The caveat is that the daily trend is now firmly down...So any rallies might be weak...Which is exactly why I am not playing this long but keeping core short position. 

As always its a game of odds. Trade Safe.