Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Monday, September 29, 2008


US markets today...Man thats a crash...Biggest decline in a day that I have ever seen....Biggest since 1987....

Everyone ready for a 20% down day today? :-)

Its very likely unless some massive governtment intervention comes in. I think my longer term targets will get achieved very soon.

Dont miss the charts and TA below. When I did below analysis today early morning, I had no idea US markets would crash today...Man what a move! Almost like our own markets :)

PLS do not be in a hurry to bottom pick/knife catch. There will be lots of time. We are in panic mode now...Let the market find its bottom.


Charts and Updates

After a long time I am finally getting an opportunity to put up some charts and detailed analysis. Its some busy and crazy times for me what with the hurricane and internet being down...Well things are kinda back to normal now and I am back in business. 

I got a lot of emails from readers of this blog asking why no charts..Well reason is above as I did post several times over here...Thank you all for your wishes and concerns at this time...!

Now to the markets. 

If you remember my fractal post, I had clearly said we will get something like this coming...I did turn short term bullish in between which turned out to be a dud as it did not bounce as much as I expected and I would have been better off just holding shorts...Unfortunately market has been very volatile and whipsaw-y nowadays that its been tough to time short term trades...My thought is avoid trying to catch the knife either way...Wait for bounces to short seems to be the wiser thing to do...Unless you want to take a sizable drawdown.

Okay lets look at the hourly chart here. Some things I have pointed out on the chart. You can also compare with the earlier move we had similar to this(see fractal post) and it should give some ideas on how this can go now...

Next the daily. I have market the possible move happening here over the next couple of weeks. I expect a very very important bottom to be set here in October itself maybe...Maybe around 3200-2900 range. We should then embark on a major multimonth rally...But these are based on waves so we will revisit this in another post in a few days. Also note in this chart, note the macd and stochastics clearly showing the downtrending nature of this move. 

If I were to guess, I would say the market continues the decline, makes a low around 3600 and then moves upward to test the 3800 line again setting up a perfect short before we go down to much lower targets as shown in chart below.

Next the daily log chart...
Note how clearly we are within the doomsday channel as I had dubbed this before...We should move toward the bottom of the channel soon...

Finally the weekly. Nothing much to say except both macd and stoch on weekly also on sell...Watch for the stochastics turn back up on weekly to signify a longer term bottom. This is what I will be watching for.

I am really amazed at how well my fractal post worked from a couple of weeks back! Enjoy :)

Comments welcome.


Sunday, September 28, 2008

Not looking good

Charts will follow in the post after this.

For a few days I was entertaining a bullish notion...I was wrong about short term..Looks like longer term bearishness has taken stronger hold and we are going to make a very important low. Where I do not know...But I think odds of breaking 3800 are very high this time. I know of very few situations where a support is being tested for a 3rd time and surviving...So it should break and we should test 3600 and lower. We will visit that when we get there. After making this low, we should embark on a strong multi-month rally...(the bigger B wave - will explain more with charts)

I got stopped out of all longs and am now looking for an area to short. But it situations like this, its dangerous to chase an entry...Maybe just sit out for now.