Been a while since my last update. Had a good time off from the markets.
Now several things here when I look at the conventional charts and also the Hurst charts. No low has really been confirmed yet. Even after this much rally. You would remember earlier I was looking for a low somewhere in Nov timeframe - the 80 week low - and then a good rally from there. Now even though we got some rally, I am not sure if this was the real long lasting low. I mean to say I expect more downside this year. I dont think it will be easy to trade this because of the sharp rallies in between.
Bottom line for me is that my weekly mechanical system remains on sell and will until we take out 5400 conclusively on the upside. This will come down to 5200 in March timeframe. So if we manage to go above 5200 in March, a new bull market will be confirmed as per my standards.
I know its big points and long timeframe but I am shifting my trading to this kind of timeframe for now esp because I dont have the time for shorter term trading right now and esp for this reason I will not update my blog as frequently going forward. Weekly signals are what I will be trading going ahead. And from a Hurst perspective, when I get a more reliable view, I will post the same. Right now Hurst is a big mess and like any system it has its good and bad times. Right now, until a good low is confirmed, I will not trust it. And this new 80 week cycle seems to be a bear cycle which is why I expect 2012 will also be a bear year atleast until mid year. Well the market has to disprove this by trading above 5400 in next 3-4 weeks or 5200 in next 10 weeks.
Short term I dont have much guidance to offer except that we seem to be getting into topping range right now and not much more upside is left near term. I think there are many other blogs out there like Kumar Sir's or Ilango's which give much better short term guidance..:) No need to rely on me. I will post from time to time..Maybe a weekly or even bi-weekly update going ahead. Lot of extra responsibilities have come up for me workwise during the past few months - So I really think this is the way to go for now.