Careful out there!
Lee
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Update - March 31st
Been meaning to post some charts for some time..Here are a couple with comments which show what I am seeing and my thought process here.
Careful out there!
Lee
Careful out there!
Lee
30th March
I wanted to post some charts here..but dont have time to..
So..Bottom line is..yes very bullish..but I think trend is turning or might soon.
Book profits on longs and wait to see what will happen.
The TURN is coming...
OR else we go all DAMN bullish very soon.
Will post charts tomorrow.
Best.
So..Bottom line is..yes very bullish..but I think trend is turning or might soon.
Book profits on longs and wait to see what will happen.
The TURN is coming...
OR else we go all DAMN bullish very soon.
Will post charts tomorrow.
Best.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Confusion
Will be very frank here..
Confusion reigns supreme.
Its anyones guess here what will happen.
5800 is the bull bear line as I said before.
I got out of longs today with decent gains.
Shorts..I am going to start building them today with stop of 5820.
Be cautious. If you are confused or not confident, pls dont do anything.
I will post some charts tomorrow which might clear some stuff...some more
views..more thoughts etc etc
Best
Confusion reigns supreme.
Its anyones guess here what will happen.
5800 is the bull bear line as I said before.
I got out of longs today with decent gains.
Shorts..I am going to start building them today with stop of 5820.
Be cautious. If you are confused or not confident, pls dont do anything.
I will post some charts tomorrow which might clear some stuff...some more
views..more thoughts etc etc
Best
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Week Ahead - 28/03/2011
In last update I mentioned above 5540 we can see a good rally and we did that above and beyond what I thought might happen.
There is no doubt - things are looking quite bullish now. I have tried to give some views in the charts below on possibilities. This week after an initial pop, we should see some pullback - Use that to exit shorts and try some longs. I got out of all shorts on Monday and took a bucketload of calls to cover the loss - I will close those today and wait to get some good long entries.
Longer term chart looks still bearish however I see potential of a change coming up.
Chart gives more idea. I will be moving focus to stocks going forward and wait to see what Nifty does.
Another look at the chart from far
Best of luck and trade safe. Do your own due diligence and do not follow anything written in this blog blindly.
Cheers.
There is no doubt - things are looking quite bullish now. I have tried to give some views in the charts below on possibilities. This week after an initial pop, we should see some pullback - Use that to exit shorts and try some longs. I got out of all shorts on Monday and took a bucketload of calls to cover the loss - I will close those today and wait to get some good long entries.
Longer term chart looks still bearish however I see potential of a change coming up.
Chart gives more idea. I will be moving focus to stocks going forward and wait to see what Nifty does.
Another look at the chart from far
Best of luck and trade safe. Do your own due diligence and do not follow anything written in this blog blindly.
Cheers.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Market - 25/03/2011
Quick update. Market at the cusp of the triangle today. Can go on upward to test 5600 today assuming we can sustain above 5540 area. 5600 is the higher end of the trading range - will it break out? A little bit of selloff is due for a reset soon because market participants are bullish now. However OI data is quite bullish and continues to suggest higher prices in the very short term.
More detailed analysis and charts over the weekend.
Best.
More detailed analysis and charts over the weekend.
Best.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Intra Thoughts
Interesting is all I can say. I am still bearish over medium term but short term is bullish no doubt. Lets see if we can test 5600-5650 levels. I am shorting at 50 point intervals for now. Scaling in. I dont think we will be able to sustain above 5610..but let us see if it will work out over time.
My current positions -
Short 1 lot at 5450
Short 1 more lot at 5500
Will short 1 more at 5550 and 5600 and then wait and watch.
Even though I say 'lots' above its a ratio of what I am doing. Meaning 1 lot can mean 10 also depending on the size if you know what I mean.
Let us see. I am a positional trader not an intraday one. Some folks seem to think I am over analysing and I can see what they are seeing from their perspective. Its all about timeframe. I mean an intraday trader cannot come here an make sense of what I am doing. That wont happen. My timeframe is 1 to 3 weeks. Remember that.
If it does not work out for you then please quit this blog. I will take a little bit of drawdown to make bigger gains. If you cannot stomach it then this is not for you.
Best.
My current positions -
Short 1 lot at 5450
Short 1 more lot at 5500
Will short 1 more at 5550 and 5600 and then wait and watch.
Even though I say 'lots' above its a ratio of what I am doing. Meaning 1 lot can mean 10 also depending on the size if you know what I mean.
Let us see. I am a positional trader not an intraday one. Some folks seem to think I am over analysing and I can see what they are seeing from their perspective. Its all about timeframe. I mean an intraday trader cannot come here an make sense of what I am doing. That wont happen. My timeframe is 1 to 3 weeks. Remember that.
If it does not work out for you then please quit this blog. I will take a little bit of drawdown to make bigger gains. If you cannot stomach it then this is not for you.
Best.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Some Macro thoughts, Nifty shorter term and a look at a couple of stocks
Macro thoughts...Ofcourse this is only speculation. I think we are going to put in a very important low longer term toward end of this year - this will be a great opportunity for us in India to some some real good stock picking for longer term portfolios. I will be awaiting the next buy on my weekly chart. Shorting like I said before is always a game for the professional in my view. I feel retail guys should always be on the lookout for cash opportunities and focus on picking good stocks when there is doom and gloom in the markets.
I will show a great example in my next post on this and what I mean..What my plan is etc etc.
I think we are going to do a lot of volatile moves over next several months until we get a sustainable bottom.
Remember in 2009/2008, US market bottomed in March..We had our ultimate bottom in Oct and a secondary in March. What I mean to say is we are leading the US market by around 4-5 months. This time also we hit a top before them. Too early to say for sure if it was the ultimate top or not though I think it is for now.
Emerging markets are an excellent barometer for what the hot money is doing. And it does look like the 2009 March situation is playing in reverse. Just my take on this.
My very limited cycles knowledge also points toward an important low later this year. We will have to see how it works out over time.
At this moment I dont see any chance of 3500 on Nifty being breached. I think we might get to around 4200-3800 and stabilize over time.
Reposting my comment from earlier post here so ppl dont miss it -
====================================================================
Stop losses are a real ART Yoda. I have kind of given up on them and instead am focusing on my signals.
Sujatha - tough question. For me this is where a bit of discretion comes in - mean to say more of feel kind of trading. Also simple supports and resistances.
I know the larger picture. Then I take a top down approach from there. For example 5650 broke, I was already building shorts from 5700 odd (gut feel) and when 5500 hit, I covered up, reshorted higher etc etc..I dont know - these kind of things just come my experience over time..And managing trades means I keep risk lower nowadays.
Leverage - I almost keep it at 100%..Mean to say if I have 5 lakhs - I will just short 2 lots = correct value more or less. To add 1 more lot, I need 2.5 more lakhs.
Trading hours big challenge - But I try to manage for a few hours. If I feel some important move will come, I will sit out the full trading day.
Thanks Bee..Read your mail also.
Thanks Prashant..
Ashish, you have asked a very difficult question. I will be completely honest here. Every trader will go bust several times in the stock market. No way out of it. I too have gone bust atleast 2 times. But I always made sure I dont lose more money than I can actually afford to lose.
I remember within first 2 yrs, I went bust once.
I studied lots and came back. Things went well for 3 years or so. Very extremely well for the next 1 year - got very overconfident and starting playing with huge amounts..started playing without SLs etc etc. Ofcourse I dont need to tell you what happened.
I have come to find that money management is the most important thing in trading. Understanding your risk and playing accordingly.
I would say right now, I play with less or NO leverage. Sure profits are smaller but need to keep greed under control. I am net on net okay now. Net profitable I mean. So yes it is possible and you can do it also. First thing needed is belief in yourself.
Lets continue this discussion.
==========================================================================
Now heres a look at a random stock just to show my methodology and how I trade with a top down kind of approach. This is for the long side only. Short side I just focus on Nifty. Lot of comments in chart - open in new window to read.
A look at nifty shorter term. Comments in the chart.
Range contraction is what it is. Today would be interesting for a variety of reasons. One thing I have noticed is the correlation b/w the Indian and US markets has diminished greatly over past few months. So todays strong US move - would be interesting to see how we are going to react.
The FIIs have been using this as a excuse to liquidate nowadays. I think that is when they get the volume to do what they want to do. Means good gap up on world markets; then sell off. It will be interesting to see if the same trend continues today.
5600 remains decisive for the medium term timeframe. IF and thats a BIG IF we manage to get over and sustain 5600 over next few days, then we can go above to test 5800. I would put this as a low probability for now and instead watch how we react at 5500-5550 range. I will be looking to put back on the shorts at this area and then see if we can get to 5600 or if we get back down to test 5300 area again - my money will be on this. Let us see.
Bottom line is this - Trend is down. Rallies should be used to short or exit from longs. How exactly you do this depends on your trade management and personality.
We will focus on EW counts next post.
Later.
More later.
I will show a great example in my next post on this and what I mean..What my plan is etc etc.
I think we are going to do a lot of volatile moves over next several months until we get a sustainable bottom.
Remember in 2009/2008, US market bottomed in March..We had our ultimate bottom in Oct and a secondary in March. What I mean to say is we are leading the US market by around 4-5 months. This time also we hit a top before them. Too early to say for sure if it was the ultimate top or not though I think it is for now.
Emerging markets are an excellent barometer for what the hot money is doing. And it does look like the 2009 March situation is playing in reverse. Just my take on this.
My very limited cycles knowledge also points toward an important low later this year. We will have to see how it works out over time.
At this moment I dont see any chance of 3500 on Nifty being breached. I think we might get to around 4200-3800 and stabilize over time.
Reposting my comment from earlier post here so ppl dont miss it -
====================================================================
Stop losses are a real ART Yoda. I have kind of given up on them and instead am focusing on my signals.
Sujatha - tough question. For me this is where a bit of discretion comes in - mean to say more of feel kind of trading. Also simple supports and resistances.
I know the larger picture. Then I take a top down approach from there. For example 5650 broke, I was already building shorts from 5700 odd (gut feel) and when 5500 hit, I covered up, reshorted higher etc etc..I dont know - these kind of things just come my experience over time..And managing trades means I keep risk lower nowadays.
Leverage - I almost keep it at 100%..Mean to say if I have 5 lakhs - I will just short 2 lots = correct value more or less. To add 1 more lot, I need 2.5 more lakhs.
Trading hours big challenge - But I try to manage for a few hours. If I feel some important move will come, I will sit out the full trading day.
Thanks Bee..Read your mail also.
Thanks Prashant..
Ashish, you have asked a very difficult question. I will be completely honest here. Every trader will go bust several times in the stock market. No way out of it. I too have gone bust atleast 2 times. But I always made sure I dont lose more money than I can actually afford to lose.
I remember within first 2 yrs, I went bust once.
I studied lots and came back. Things went well for 3 years or so. Very extremely well for the next 1 year - got very overconfident and starting playing with huge amounts..started playing without SLs etc etc. Ofcourse I dont need to tell you what happened.
I have come to find that money management is the most important thing in trading. Understanding your risk and playing accordingly.
I would say right now, I play with less or NO leverage. Sure profits are smaller but need to keep greed under control. I am net on net okay now. Net profitable I mean. So yes it is possible and you can do it also. First thing needed is belief in yourself.
Lets continue this discussion.
==========================================================================
Now heres a look at a random stock just to show my methodology and how I trade with a top down kind of approach. This is for the long side only. Short side I just focus on Nifty. Lot of comments in chart - open in new window to read.
A look at nifty shorter term. Comments in the chart.
Range contraction is what it is. Today would be interesting for a variety of reasons. One thing I have noticed is the correlation b/w the Indian and US markets has diminished greatly over past few months. So todays strong US move - would be interesting to see how we are going to react.
The FIIs have been using this as a excuse to liquidate nowadays. I think that is when they get the volume to do what they want to do. Means good gap up on world markets; then sell off. It will be interesting to see if the same trend continues today.
5600 remains decisive for the medium term timeframe. IF and thats a BIG IF we manage to get over and sustain 5600 over next few days, then we can go above to test 5800. I would put this as a low probability for now and instead watch how we react at 5500-5550 range. I will be looking to put back on the shorts at this area and then see if we can get to 5600 or if we get back down to test 5300 area again - my money will be on this. Let us see.
Bottom line is this - Trend is down. Rallies should be used to short or exit from longs. How exactly you do this depends on your trade management and personality.
We will focus on EW counts next post.
Later.
More later.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Back Again
Okay guys..after a break of almost 2 years, I am back. I hope I will be able to consistently post here for a while.
What I have been doing for the past couple of years..a bit of soul searching..trying to improve my trading methods. More importantly trying to improve my money management techniques - this is by far the most important thing any retail investor/trader should do - But it is the one thats ignored by everyone..More on that later.
I have found that the best way to do things is to focus on the bigger picture..Keep leverage down to a bare minimum. Have a clear idea on the RR ratio..Most folks dont try to determine the risk but instead focus on the reward alone and in the end get bombed.
Another thing guys - Option trading is NOT investing. I saw someone say on a forum some time back that they had 'invested' in 5700 calls. What the hell!...Thats not investing..its speculation lol.
Anyhow coming to the chart. I have posted something similar some time back. This is the weekly nifty chart with KPL's 20 period swing on it. So its a 20week swing. I have found this is the best way to catch the longer term trend and swings with a fantastic accuracy rate. You can see the buy and sell arrows for yourself. This tool is great for a longer term investor and trader.
As I mentioned before, when 5650 broke, I think our market has entered into a longer term bear. This will be negated only on trading above 6181. Over time the swing will come down and we have to keep monitoring this to determine buy point.
I think we are looking at a possible bad year in 2011 and if we get a good low toward end of this year, then I will start looking for possible longs toward then. It might turn out to be the buys of a decade if it plays out the way I am thinking it will...Speculation at this point but lets see. I will say more about this later.
More comments on the chart. Count the points from arrow to arrow. Only price as I have found that that is the only thing can be trusted. Most folks will focus on thousand different indicators which only muddies up the picture. Focus on price alone.
I have been trading on the long side last year until the swing turned down as shown in the chart.
Bear markets are tough to trade for the retail investor. Its a game best left to professionals. Still I am trying to do something on the short side - atleast trying to capture some of the down swing. Lets watch and see how this plays out. Patience will be of great importance here.
More later.
What I have been doing for the past couple of years..a bit of soul searching..trying to improve my trading methods. More importantly trying to improve my money management techniques - this is by far the most important thing any retail investor/trader should do - But it is the one thats ignored by everyone..More on that later.
I have found that the best way to do things is to focus on the bigger picture..Keep leverage down to a bare minimum. Have a clear idea on the RR ratio..Most folks dont try to determine the risk but instead focus on the reward alone and in the end get bombed.
Another thing guys - Option trading is NOT investing. I saw someone say on a forum some time back that they had 'invested' in 5700 calls. What the hell!...Thats not investing..its speculation lol.
Anyhow coming to the chart. I have posted something similar some time back. This is the weekly nifty chart with KPL's 20 period swing on it. So its a 20week swing. I have found this is the best way to catch the longer term trend and swings with a fantastic accuracy rate. You can see the buy and sell arrows for yourself. This tool is great for a longer term investor and trader.
As I mentioned before, when 5650 broke, I think our market has entered into a longer term bear. This will be negated only on trading above 6181. Over time the swing will come down and we have to keep monitoring this to determine buy point.
I think we are looking at a possible bad year in 2011 and if we get a good low toward end of this year, then I will start looking for possible longs toward then. It might turn out to be the buys of a decade if it plays out the way I am thinking it will...Speculation at this point but lets see. I will say more about this later.
More comments on the chart. Count the points from arrow to arrow. Only price as I have found that that is the only thing can be trusted. Most folks will focus on thousand different indicators which only muddies up the picture. Focus on price alone.
I have been trading on the long side last year until the swing turned down as shown in the chart.
Bear markets are tough to trade for the retail investor. Its a game best left to professionals. Still I am trying to do something on the short side - atleast trying to capture some of the down swing. Lets watch and see how this plays out. Patience will be of great importance here.
More later.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Amazing!
Well the bulls continue to amaze. Every little pullback is being bought..and yesterday it looked like some big money really came in..I only wonder why they are this late to the game but who am I to judge. Anyhow, on the log scale on the daily, Nifty looks to have broken out and next logical target is 3800 area. But keep in mind, market defies logic...Lets see how far this goes. I tried some shorts yesterday..monster moves stopped me out ofcourse..so nothing doing now...wait and watch...
Been thinking again about this blog for a while..And due to various reasons, personal and otherwise, I am taking a rather longish break from blogging..Not sure how long.
I have lots of personal changes coming up...will be moving to India in while and so on so I wouldnt have much time to continue this blog at the same level that I am doing now...Besides I am finding the whole thing stressful at the moment.
So I am going to step back a bit from blogging..And see how I can manage it..If I feel comfortable, I will be back with weekly or bi-weekly updates...For now, bye, take it easy in trading and always keep a watch out for the unexpected.
Best.
Been thinking again about this blog for a while..And due to various reasons, personal and otherwise, I am taking a rather longish break from blogging..Not sure how long.
I have lots of personal changes coming up...will be moving to India in while and so on so I wouldnt have much time to continue this blog at the same level that I am doing now...Besides I am finding the whole thing stressful at the moment.
So I am going to step back a bit from blogging..And see how I can manage it..If I feel comfortable, I will be back with weekly or bi-weekly updates...For now, bye, take it easy in trading and always keep a watch out for the unexpected.
Best.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Da Wedge
Looks like we broke down from the wedge pattern and now backtesting it..Shorting with a tight stop has good risk-reward here.
Best.
Best.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
The Week Ahead
EDIT: Intraday at 12:15PM - Interesting action on intraday charts...Here 15min..Looks like a break. I shorted the break..small size only. I missed shorting the open even though my gut told me to..Nevertheless shorted at the break shown in the chart.
Lets see.
====================================================================================
Another shortened week ahead..I have found that these kind of weeks throw me off a bit..I mean timing wise it can make things a bit 'OFF' but well we got to live with it I guess.
Market this week - I am again expecting we see a pullback. It could be very fast and could also be a sidewise shallow correction. Buying the pullback could be profitable..I think for this time. But dont be in a hurry to buy - In my very humble opinion. Lets look at some levels on the charts.
NIFTY HOURLY
NIFTY DAILY
NIFTY WEEKLY
TWO POSSIBLE COUNTS IN RED AND BLUE
As you know I am totally flat right now..I am not sure what I will do next. In 2 minds..I.E to let the market settle down a bit before going long again..OR try a quick and small short for 2 days? Tough call. We will see as it goes. Will update if I see something interesting or do take a position today.
Best.
Lets see.
====================================================================================
Another shortened week ahead..I have found that these kind of weeks throw me off a bit..I mean timing wise it can make things a bit 'OFF' but well we got to live with it I guess.
Market this week - I am again expecting we see a pullback. It could be very fast and could also be a sidewise shallow correction. Buying the pullback could be profitable..I think for this time. But dont be in a hurry to buy - In my very humble opinion. Lets look at some levels on the charts.
NIFTY HOURLY
NIFTY DAILY
NIFTY WEEKLY
TWO POSSIBLE COUNTS IN RED AND BLUE
As you know I am totally flat right now..I am not sure what I will do next. In 2 minds..I.E to let the market settle down a bit before going long again..OR try a quick and small short for 2 days? Tough call. We will see as it goes. Will update if I see something interesting or do take a position today.
Best.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
OUT
Out of longs...from 3166 to 3374 odd..
Not doing anything now..
200+ pts..I will take that.
I will post some charts and thoughts later if I can.
Best.
Not doing anything now..
200+ pts..I will take that.
I will post some charts and thoughts later if I can.
Best.
Some Mumbo Jumbo
Some more mumbo jumbo from my side..more of an extension to the post below this..
Often I've wondered why we go through good patches and then bad patches..Is it luck or is it all in our head? I think its the latter..Even a gambler has good streaks...but again is it chance? is it luck? Or is it something else?
I have had some stupendous periods of gains and good trades .. I have wondered what made me do that..What created that? And why does it not continue ad infinitum? I believe its all about being in the 'zone' .. Now what is being in the zone..simple..I am sure we all would have played some kind of sport in our life and during some point of time, we would have been playing at the top of our game in a particular game..and NOTHING you do...NO MATTER what you do, it always goes right..Thats the ZONE.
Now traders also have this zone...I have found myself somehow stumbling into this ZONE sometimes..Its mostly by accident but sometimes by design as well..And once we are there, usually something stops the streak and reality snaps back..I think a lot of it depends on having the right amount of confidence and also the right amount of common sense...Most expert traders remain in the ZONE permanently and trading for them is like a second nature..Traders like me..well not quite there even though we'd like to be there...Its a tough game this trading..No matter what you do in life..what all you do successfully, nothing can prepare you for trading successfully except for trading itself.
Its a tough road..Most give up..
But heres to sticking on the road..And getting into that permanent 'ZONE'!
Thoughts on the market later.
Best.
Often I've wondered why we go through good patches and then bad patches..Is it luck or is it all in our head? I think its the latter..Even a gambler has good streaks...but again is it chance? is it luck? Or is it something else?
I have had some stupendous periods of gains and good trades .. I have wondered what made me do that..What created that? And why does it not continue ad infinitum? I believe its all about being in the 'zone' .. Now what is being in the zone..simple..I am sure we all would have played some kind of sport in our life and during some point of time, we would have been playing at the top of our game in a particular game..and NOTHING you do...NO MATTER what you do, it always goes right..Thats the ZONE.
Now traders also have this zone...I have found myself somehow stumbling into this ZONE sometimes..Its mostly by accident but sometimes by design as well..And once we are there, usually something stops the streak and reality snaps back..I think a lot of it depends on having the right amount of confidence and also the right amount of common sense...Most expert traders remain in the ZONE permanently and trading for them is like a second nature..Traders like me..well not quite there even though we'd like to be there...Its a tough game this trading..No matter what you do in life..what all you do successfully, nothing can prepare you for trading successfully except for trading itself.
Its a tough road..Most give up..
But heres to sticking on the road..And getting into that permanent 'ZONE'!
Thoughts on the market later.
Best.
WOW
..I mean just wow...Been a long time since I've seen something like this...Market digested the big gap down and just powered ahead like its a new bull market..My decision to cover and go long in the morning paid off nicely..Position size was not as big as I would have liked but lol, I'll take it...Beer money :)
The markets are getting a bit ridiculous now..I still have a bad feeling this wont end well..but well thats just me..We shall go by what the market does...200pts in one day from low to high!!...well I wont complain as I caught all of this move...Still its amazing how this is going now...Looks like no one wants to miss the bull bus.
As you might have observed(lol, right), I havent been in good form lately and whenever this happens, it pays to step back a little and regroup before trading again...Bad streaks good streaks call it what you will but I believe its all in the mind...I guess I might be finding my groove again..Keeping fingers crossed.
Trading in the Zone is a good book by Mark Douglas on psychology in trading...I recommend this to everyone..More than often the enemy is within us..I want to also sincerely thank SS(Timamo) for encouraging and helping me during this time. Thanks!!! :)
Footnote: I would be very careful in the market now..Its close to euphoria now..You know what comes next..It can run some more but the last 5-10% of the rally is dangerous to catch - use extreme caution folks.
More later.
Best.
The markets are getting a bit ridiculous now..I still have a bad feeling this wont end well..but well thats just me..We shall go by what the market does...200pts in one day from low to high!!...well I wont complain as I caught all of this move...Still its amazing how this is going now...Looks like no one wants to miss the bull bus.
As you might have observed(lol, right), I havent been in good form lately and whenever this happens, it pays to step back a little and regroup before trading again...Bad streaks good streaks call it what you will but I believe its all in the mind...I guess I might be finding my groove again..Keeping fingers crossed.
Trading in the Zone is a good book by Mark Douglas on psychology in trading...I recommend this to everyone..More than often the enemy is within us..I want to also sincerely thank SS(Timamo) for encouraging and helping me during this time. Thanks!!! :)
Footnote: I would be very careful in the market now..Its close to euphoria now..You know what comes next..It can run some more but the last 5-10% of the rally is dangerous to catch - use extreme caution folks.
More later.
Best.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Getting Interesting...
Back into the grooove... :)
Getting interesting in here...down to first support..taking a stab at some small longs...Not sure of timeframe yet.
PS: Dont get into this trade unless you have balls of steel! :)
Best.
Getting interesting in here...down to first support..taking a stab at some small longs...Not sure of timeframe yet.
PS: Dont get into this trade unless you have balls of steel! :)
Best.
Pullback and then...
So we are going to get the pullback..And what next? Dont know..lets look at the charts.
HOURLY
DAILY
Looks like after this pullback, we might make one more attempt at the highs..Maybe a bit higher as well before a more serious pullback..As of now, the megabearish scenario is on hold...After a rally with this much momentum, we need to look to buy the dips..For NOW...Not to say this cannot change quickly as well...
For NOW, the hourly is on an uptrend and the 20hr swing is on a buy..until this changes, it pays to buy the dips...Overall(1month-2months), I believe we shall top out and have a downmove but its not possible now to say how far this goes, so lets not try to predict and instead play the hourlies.
I might look to go long today on the pullback..small amounts only..As you might know, Lee needs to get his GROOVE back :)
In other news - Cramer calls the bottom again :D
LAST TIME WHAT HAPPENED -
Best.
HOURLY
DAILY
Looks like after this pullback, we might make one more attempt at the highs..Maybe a bit higher as well before a more serious pullback..As of now, the megabearish scenario is on hold...After a rally with this much momentum, we need to look to buy the dips..For NOW...Not to say this cannot change quickly as well...
For NOW, the hourly is on an uptrend and the 20hr swing is on a buy..until this changes, it pays to buy the dips...Overall(1month-2months), I believe we shall top out and have a downmove but its not possible now to say how far this goes, so lets not try to predict and instead play the hourlies.
I might look to go long today on the pullback..small amounts only..As you might know, Lee needs to get his GROOVE back :)
In other news - Cramer calls the bottom again :D
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
LAST TIME WHAT HAPPENED -
Best.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Pullback due this week....
Lots of discussion regarding following the trend..I agree that we need to follow the trend..But tell me? - How do you define the trend? Hourly? Daily? Weekly? What I mean to say is where do you decide that the trend changed?
The market over the past several months have been rangebound...A large range but still rangebound...Anyone trying to trend trade on the daily would have been burnt...Maybe it is changing now..Do not know..Since the daily was burning me, I decided to move to the hourly. Since then the market has not given a meaningful pullback..just surging ahead on top of gap ups and new found optimism.
I am open to a new mini bull starting but this action is not healthy in my very humble opinion..Up on gaps..Same can happen in reverse.
We should see some sort of pullback atleast..this week and then maybe power up higher..The 3240-3260 area is of obvious importance as I have pointed out in previous charts. We are this close to taking it out...So lets watch that...If long and market goes above that, setting stop a little under that might be prudent.
For shorts, I am still waiting for the hourly to set up a sell so that I can go in short in bigger size. Unfortunately its not happening...Maybe that is the plan..Power ahead like this till 6300 without any pullbacks? :)
Best.
The market over the past several months have been rangebound...A large range but still rangebound...Anyone trying to trend trade on the daily would have been burnt...Maybe it is changing now..Do not know..Since the daily was burning me, I decided to move to the hourly. Since then the market has not given a meaningful pullback..just surging ahead on top of gap ups and new found optimism.
I am open to a new mini bull starting but this action is not healthy in my very humble opinion..Up on gaps..Same can happen in reverse.
We should see some sort of pullback atleast..this week and then maybe power up higher..The 3240-3260 area is of obvious importance as I have pointed out in previous charts. We are this close to taking it out...So lets watch that...If long and market goes above that, setting stop a little under that might be prudent.
For shorts, I am still waiting for the hourly to set up a sell so that I can go in short in bigger size. Unfortunately its not happening...Maybe that is the plan..Power ahead like this till 6300 without any pullbacks? :)
Best.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
NUTS
This thing is just too strong...
What a rally...feel disappointed to have missed out..The hourly buy alone would have netted 600 points so far..damn!
The worst part was..no substantial retrace and most of the gains came on gap ups..
Frustrating to say the least...
I really dont have substantial positions in the markets now...Some shorts only as I said before. I will likely get out next week sometime...
And then, will just wait and watch...And will post if I get a signal on the hourly.
Trading that and ignoring everything else seems best.
Lot of news, the G20 etc next few days..Our market is on long holiday..Will be interesting to see what comes out of all of this...
Have a good weekend all - and take your mind off of the markets :)
Best.
What a rally...feel disappointed to have missed out..The hourly buy alone would have netted 600 points so far..damn!
The worst part was..no substantial retrace and most of the gains came on gap ups..
Frustrating to say the least...
I really dont have substantial positions in the markets now...Some shorts only as I said before. I will likely get out next week sometime...
And then, will just wait and watch...And will post if I get a signal on the hourly.
Trading that and ignoring everything else seems best.
Lot of news, the G20 etc next few days..Our market is on long holiday..Will be interesting to see what comes out of all of this...
Have a good weekend all - and take your mind off of the markets :)
Best.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Bull Over or Just a Retrace?
@ 11:09AM - HEADS UP: Market is just chopping around..But 20hr swing is now at 2962.75. Below this and we have an hourly sell. I would respect this signal just looking at the earlier track record. Chart below -
Also see the red line I have drawn below. Below this, we can see a strong selloff.
=====================================================================================
Bull Over or Just a Retrace?
===========================
Ah the billion dollar question..No I dont have an answer now but just some clues...
I was not able to post yesterday as I was moving house..Been damn busy over the weekend...Hopefully things can get back to normal soon :)
The market..All the baby bulls got their heads handed to them...Had some idea this might happen but did not expect it to be so dramatic. Well now the big question is are we starting a new bear move or it this just a retracement in this so called 'new bull market'? I dont know...
I mentioned a few days back that I had some interesting stuff to share. Chart with comments below. Now note this is just a scenario. I dont trade based off of this..Just looking at the bigger picture.
AGAIN just want to stress..Dont pay too much attention to above..Using EWT for trading can be fatal for those who take it at face value..Just use it as a guide.
Looking at the hourly...My main trading system for now.
All in all a bit of a confusing picture...But we should get more clarity in coming days.
Personally, I do think the bears are back though. If I do get another rally, I will use it to reposition myself better.
Will post intraday updates if something interesting comes up.
Best.
Also see the red line I have drawn below. Below this, we can see a strong selloff.
=====================================================================================
Bull Over or Just a Retrace?
===========================
Ah the billion dollar question..No I dont have an answer now but just some clues...
I was not able to post yesterday as I was moving house..Been damn busy over the weekend...Hopefully things can get back to normal soon :)
The market..All the baby bulls got their heads handed to them...Had some idea this might happen but did not expect it to be so dramatic. Well now the big question is are we starting a new bear move or it this just a retracement in this so called 'new bull market'? I dont know...
I mentioned a few days back that I had some interesting stuff to share. Chart with comments below. Now note this is just a scenario. I dont trade based off of this..Just looking at the bigger picture.
AGAIN just want to stress..Dont pay too much attention to above..Using EWT for trading can be fatal for those who take it at face value..Just use it as a guide.
Looking at the hourly...My main trading system for now.
All in all a bit of a confusing picture...But we should get more clarity in coming days.
Personally, I do think the bears are back though. If I do get another rally, I will use it to reposition myself better.
Will post intraday updates if something interesting comes up.
Best.
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