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Sunday, April 5, 2009

Pullback due this week....

Lots of discussion regarding following the trend..I agree that we need to follow the trend..But tell me? - How do you define the trend? Hourly? Daily? Weekly? What I mean to say is where do you decide that the trend changed?

The market over the past several months have been rangebound...A large range but still rangebound...Anyone trying to trend trade on the daily would have been burnt...Maybe it is changing now..Do not know..Since the daily was burning me, I decided to move to the hourly. Since then the market has not given a meaningful pullback..just surging ahead on top of gap ups and new found optimism.

I am open to a new mini bull starting but this action is not healthy in my very humble opinion..Up on gaps..Same can happen in reverse.

We should see some sort of pullback atleast..this week and then maybe power up higher..The 3240-3260 area is of obvious importance as I have pointed out in previous charts. We are this close to taking it out...So lets watch that...If long and market goes above that, setting stop a little under that might be prudent.

For shorts, I am still waiting for the hourly to set up a sell so that I can go in short in bigger size. Unfortunately its not happening...Maybe that is the plan..Power ahead like this till 6300 without any pullbacks? :)

Best.

5 comments:

Abhimanyu said...

Lee,
I think ....
There are only 2 trends in market
Make money or Loose money ...
Every thing else can go in strategy

Local said...

This entire rise I've been convinced the trend is down.:)

Unknown said...

Nifty range for this week is 3050-3400.
3400 is strong resistance,should be used for short sell with sl 3450.
http://stockplan.blogspot.com/

Kaushik said...

Lee,
Markets have surprised the bears recently.So how about surprising the bulls??
What I believe is going to happen is a minor pullback to 2900 level,then a sharp rally to 3450-3500 level around and then drastic fall below 2500 by end of May. We are having a election time.So expect a lot of DIIs acting as a stabilizer.Even though of worst outside news,we will hold our level day after day and then on a fine sunny morning of May ......

Lee said...

@Yoda..yeah you and me both!

@Kaushik, yes its possible..I also think now, there is more to this rally...Lets see..I will post some scenarios later today..

Best.