Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Thursday, April 2, 2009

NUTS

This thing is just too strong...

What a rally...feel disappointed to have missed out..The hourly buy alone would have netted 600 points so far..damn!

The worst part was..no substantial retrace and most of the gains came on gap ups..

Frustrating to say the least...

I really dont have substantial positions in the markets now...Some shorts only as I said before. I will likely get out next week sometime...

And then, will just wait and watch...And will post if I get a signal on the hourly.
Trading that and ignoring everything else seems best.

Lot of news, the G20 etc next few days..Our market is on long holiday..Will be interesting to see what comes out of all of this...

Have a good weekend all - and take your mind off of the markets :)

Best.

11 comments:

Abhimanyu said...

****The worst part was..no substantial retrace and most of the gains came on gap ups..****

Lee,

In my view gap up is the main doubt about new supports 2860, 2969, 3K, 3147 etc
Most of these were BIG resistances and mostly broken with gap up
But it did not invite any one for profit booking ?

What kind of this new magic is ?

BSE HAS FORMED NEW LOW ..... NSE DID NOT IT JUST KIESSED OLD BOTTOM
Something like going away from dear one Bcoz they may not meet each other in future or at least for long time ...

Lee said...

Yep Magic definitely..Ripping out the guts of the bears...

I still dont trust this new bull market one bit...But thats just my gut feel...

I see many targets thrown out now..3350 upto 4400 also..

Not that its not possible..but we are now bordering on the edge of euphoria..I feel.

Above 3240 and sustaining..Yes more..maybe much more is possible..

Been tough trading for me past few weeks...Its all psychology and mind games now.

Lessee..

Best.

Lee said...

And you're right what was taken out with gap ups can be quickly be taken out same way with gap downs.

Best.

Prashanth said...

3240 was the target of a channel breakout. That has been achieved. We may overshoot a bit, but I don't expect it to be a long shot considering that today there seemed to be huge shot covering what with Nifty future trading nearly 20 points premium.

While front line and F&O stocks have participated in this leg of rally, overall market picture is still of distress. This signifies that this is a very strong bear rally. A friend of mine once said that its easier to make money by being a bull in a bear rally than a bull in a bull market since time is very short. I had not experienced it, but this seems to be one such thing.

Lee said...

Yep Prashant...But these things come out of the blue..no one participates in them...thats why it moves so fast..

Right NOW, market is heavy...OI at 4cr?(I heard..not verified..you might know better)..man that was the case before the Jan crash..

This is not gonna end pretty..When it will end is the question though.

Best.

Saif said...

OI is 7 crores!!!..it definitely is scary...mostly conc in 2900-3200 band...and mainly by puts...i dont know how one can read this...but when will bears wake up!!!...
all sorts of figures on dow jones of 9.1k ...n sensex at 13k...

Sunil Saranjame said...

Hi Lee,

You sure're not a trend follower right? Why? Why fight the markets? Having a bias in trading is a no no.

ss :)

Abhimanyu said...

Lee,
I can't see any cci div. on daily NSE chart infact there was one CCI DIV. for which NSE came down on 30th march and now up
IF any one has seen SUCH DIV. on NSE pl. specify the time frame or date range
one point of profit booking can b the weekly CCI(14) which is @175 & this one hint of OB zone
this Weekly CCI(14) still in up direction but it has slightly lost its angle and taken right turn
so Weekly CCI(14) of 2/4/2009 is Second largest top since July 2007
ON 28/9/2007 Weekly CCI(14) was 233.86
ON 4/1/2008 Weekly CCI(14) was 140.85
AND NOW
TODAY (2/4/2009)Weekly CCI(14) is 175.16 !!
NSE DID NOT FALL when Weekly CCI(14) was @233.86 but that point it started CCI(14)DIV. That DIV. formed till 4/1/2008
I Don’t have old data b4 July 2007
***So Lee u may find something with old data to find Average or min time for Weekly CCI(14) to form considerable DIV.
Due to this we my find abt next Huge fall of NSE if any

Lee said...

Hi SS, trend following..well I missed this one..and then never got a retrace to enter which is basically what I have said in this post..Maybe I was wrong to do that but risk-reward did not look good to me at the time..now it hindsight..well you know...

Bias..yeah its tough to shake off...

Pi said...

Hi,

I know.. what a whopper of a rally.. and the worst part is.. I lost our because of my own fault

I have formed my own trading system which takes EOD buy/sell calls based on certain rules, and have back tested it since 1990, with awesome results. Only thing is, once the buy call gives you 12-15% move, its too difficult to resist the temptation to book profits, and even short when the same goes up to 20%. I mean my system went long at around 2600, been long ever since..

Yesterday I resolved (after losing quite some money on going short), that come what may, I am going to stick to my system... I mean what is the need to not follow the system and use your own thinking when the system works so well... thats really a no brainer :(

I have to be more disciplined !!!

Sunil Saranjame said...

@ Lee, okie! no problemo! It happens.

You win some,you lose some but you live.You live to fight another day.

tc,

ss :)