Need to watch this a little bit. Now we can assume that the last 20 week low was set around June 20th timeframe. I believe there was a question on this in the comments section so yes my answer is this is my preferred possibility. If so, then right now we are setting the 10 week low around now and from here we can expect a short term rally for a few days if not for a couple of weeks. But as has been the case for the past few lows, this one also should be left transalated and we should set the high in a few days and continue down until the Nov low - the 80 week major low.
So a dead cat bounce is all we can expect at this point. Lets see...Around this area till 5000? Possible. Clearing 4960-5000 and staying above will target 5100 around. More than that, is tough.
So today my plan is to cover shorts today..I am not sure, we might get a gap up and then consolidate for a while..a lower low is also possible. So wait for a while is what I think..And when going long, I will also hedge it considering the uncertainty and also the shortened trading week this week. If I go long, 4650 is the area I will be watching with great interest. Holding this is crucial for the short term uptrend. Longer term, I expect the market to slice through this like a hot knife through butter. But lets wait a little bit on that ;)
EDIT: Covered at open and trying few longs...
Best,
Lee
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