10 Week low IS IN - EDITED

Yep..sure looks like it. Yesterday before market open and I think even few days back I mentioned that likely the 10 week low was coming in and looks like it did last Friday/yesterday. I remember few weeks back I was mentioning of a likely low around this timeframe. In between I remember thinking it would come early. Overall worked out fine - except for the fact I missed to take full advantage of the shorts I had due to the huge gap up yesterday.

Unfortunately that's what happens at the fag ends of cycles. Still we know its a low...so take what we have and run..See the open yesterday..never even came close to it after the open...What a rally!..shows the power coming out of the 10 week low. So I humbly covered my shorts around 4840 and went long, pyramiding as we went upward so overall did good yesterday. Today, respecting the holidays, I might book profits. 4960-5000 area might be a good area to do this. We will see where it opens.



So like I mentioned yesterday, the last 20 week lows came in likely on June 20th. And now we are 70 days from that low = 10 weeks. So its the 10 week low alright. And what next. As has been the case on the last major lows, the rally and tops have been extremely left translated. This one should also be the same since we are in a bearish cycle and also this is the last 10 week cycle of this 80 week, 4.5 year and 9 year cycle.

So expect the highs to be set in within the next 4/5 days to the next 2 weeks. And the price should be something around 5100-5180(if we can clear 5000 for good). 5250 will be the stop loss for the bearish case to work out. If these work out the way I think it will, we will top around there and move quite lower into the Nov 80 week low..Somewhere below 4000/3800 is what I am thinking for the coming last leg. But one step at a time.

I will post some normal TA and charts next. Along with some more considerations. If you guys have any questions or comments, you are more than welcome. I see lot of visitors but very few comments..I hope people are getting what I am posting..If not, then just ask.

EDITS:

1. Covered 50% longs at 4988 AVG. Hedged rest 50% at same level. Now wait and watch.


2. Covered rest at 4980..Closed hedges also..Totally FLAT now. Just watching. I expected bit more but looks like everyone is scared of the holidays..Still not bad for a 1 day counter-trade :)

3. Got to go sleep. But if I was awake, I would try scalping a bit on short side now..Unfortunately cannot..So cheers all and I will post some more ideas over next 2 holidays. Its past 12:30am here and I need to go to work tomorrow..so GN!

Best,
Lee