So..looks interesting right here what the cycles are doing...If I were not trading or directly involved in the market, I think I might have taken this as a serious academic exercise. Thats how interesting these cycles are playing out right now.
In college, I used to hear, cycles, fourier transforms, spectral analysis etc..But now I see the practical analysis of it. Funny right? Now we see the practical aspect of it!
Ok so now coming to the market, I sold cash positions yesterday. I dont know maybe market will brand me as a fool very soon because I did this. I know most of you will lol..but I have to go with what the market told me to do..So sold cash positions, established shorts at the 5300 area with hedges at 5300 calls. So I will just watch today most likely. We are declining now into the the 80 week low but the problem here is that the US 80 week low is projected toward Nov end while our 80 week low should come in sometime next week. This is the reason why we are more bullish that the US or other western markets.
This is the reason why I mentioned better to sit out and then buy in size when we have more confirmation on the low. I know in earlier post comments, there were questions on longer term buys etc..And what will happen next year..I have some ideas on this..so I will do a post on this a little later. It looks like we are NOT THERE YET.
Best,
Lee
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2 comments:
Hey Lee,
How are you? HAppy diwali.
well this diwali has been a "bearish" sort of diwali as the open was higher and close was lower. now many ppl may not consider it as a valid indicator but i believe this is a decent indicator bcuz if we have bearish diwali we end making major lows in the year and bullish diwali indicate we end up making major highs in the year. overall tone for the year is also in similar tones
I am expecting a low around 4830 within next two weeks (though this conflicts with your timelines of seeing major lows next week)but I am heavily short since 5100 and thus biased
regarding your assumption that we are sort of leading, I also agree with you. Our markets are sort of leading US markets (and it has a valid reason, foreign hedge funds are big players here and can easliy influence the market direction so we tend to lead while the same funds are not so big players in US and thus not able to influence market directions with their trades instantly)
lets see how it pans out :)
do keep updating on your Hurst cycle views. I find them very informative
Hi Aly,
I am fine..same to you as well.
I dont know Aly..very confused right now..I am thinking maybe the low is in and bears will have to wait until next year..I have outlined my thoughts in latest post..read them and let me know what you think.
Best,
Lee
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