Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Tough Call

Once again I feel we are at some sort of crossroads here in the market. Today we have to hold 5200-5160 area. Else the trapdoor to lower lows might open up again. My idea of shorting in the 5350-5400 area was correct but I also covered too early I guess when I did yesterday. There are some quite bearish possibilities opening up here atleast for the next 1 month. I think we need to be very careful here over the next 2-3 weeks. Remember I was looking for the next low in the next week but it can extend a bit being a major low. So its time to be careful I think.

So I am wondering what to do today. I do have some long cash positions as I have been mentioning for a while. But today I am again wondering whether it makes sense to close most of them and again rebuy again in a couple of weeks. Its a tough call. I would say if you dont have any positions, better to just sit out the next 2-3 weeks and then buy in size. Break of 5160 opens up 5050. And break of that opens up 4800 and maybe even new lows. But we might bounce about a little today and tomorrow before the market makes a decision on what to do next. Lets go point to point without any preset notions. On upside market needs to break above 5450-5500 to go higher. Maybe much higher.

I am sorry I am not able to make much of a directional call here but market has once again thrown us a curve ball and so need to do our best to navigate it.

Bottom line is I will be taking a very defensive position here for the next few days until more clarity emerges. And we should get this over the next few days.

Comments are welcome. Remember always - I am also just like you guys trying to navigate the market.

Best,
Lee

3 comments:

Sujatha said...

"I am sorry I am not able to make much of a directional call here "

No sorry :) 199% wat u wrote is the fact. some may wonder about ur nos. the unforgotten hero Nos. 5160/5050 yes, that's the fact me too expecting this one atleast by early next week?? or as u said 2-3 weeks is crucial can't say "this is positional trade " :D

Keep coming.

tanayb51 said...

D/Lee,
Your informative Hurst works are so far very useful.But,I'm now in doubt
regarding long term buy.
Hope,u'll not mind for raising this issue.Actually I've respect for Vivek
Patil.He is saying of 32 week cycle
bottom(4720) in place & 32 wk top would be in Feb-Mar,2012 after which
we might see devastating fall.
So,I'm in a dilemma regarding time of long term buy.So,just communicating if u've any comments.
with thanks & regards
Tanay

bvdr said...

Thanks for the update. Like you said earlier hit and run is the best strategy now.