Bottom line is the nominal lows of this 80 week cycle might have already be seen and we are in an uptrend. However we are close to resistance at 5450-5500 so expect a pullback and consolidation for next few days/week. Infact if you remember, this was one of my preferred scenarios - break out above 5200 and then retest it from above. But several possibilities are there.
See the charts and study them. I have tried to analyse various timeframes and possibilities here. I have included a GOLD chart also. Also the final picture is the portfolio update. I think I will move this to be a bi-monthly update from now on - being a cash portfolio will take time to grow. Posting weekly does not make much sense.
Nifty Normal View - Daily
Nifty Weekly View - Weekly
Nifty Hurst View
Nifty Hurst View - Expert Model
Gold Hurst View
Cash Portfolio Update
Link to Sentient Trader Software
Comments are welcome.
EDITS: 10:07AM - In case you guys are wondering whats going on, there is a major currency intervention going on in the Japanese markets. This is what is causing the turbulence in the markets..Yeah its a reason..but we are going for the cycle lows soon looks like..A higher low as I have been saying..So I have been slowly building into shorts here in futures. Cash positions remain as is. The last time they intervened in Forex was Aug 4th. You all know what happened Aug 4th, 5th and after that also. Play cautiously
Best,
Lee
4 comments:
Thanks a lot Mathews for taking efforts to post the Gold Chart.
Thanks 4 update lee.
Special thanks 4 sharing gold chart.
I think gold already made short term bottom near 1540. Gold will rise slowly but uptrend will continue, 1702 will be good support in short term and 1540 in long term, and in any correction always buy gold, we will see new all time high very very soon
Lee,
great work i must say.
One important thing, to really understand the asset classes movement from here on, we should consider the pair currency, the most importan being USD/EUR if euro has run its course and is on for a major downfall then all asset classes are for downfall if not then otherwise, its a mad bull run.
Just a thought.
GOLD is also a good indicator, but if currencies are not allowing then all asset classes tend to fall(including GOLD).
One very interesting chart, have a look at Dollar index and DOW now. You will see the similarities. DXY had a mad run from 74-79 levels and then collapsed.
I am just wondering if same can happen to DOW and hence nifty.
Cheers!!!
Sachin,
Thanks.
Currency pairs are probably the most difficult thing in the financial markets to understand. For me anyway. But I do agree they drive a lot of events in the markets on a whole.
Best,
Lee
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