So far downward pressure has been exerting itself as I thought it would and it should as we go into the 80 week low expected in Nov mid to end timeframe. Expect small bounces in between but the longer term trend will remain down until Nov mid/end.
Today/tomorrow, if we hold above 5000, we might stage a small bounce from there. If however we lose the 4950-5000 range, then like I said before, we will get to 4800/4750 in a jiffy.
I am still short from 5160(mentioned few days back)..added on the bounce yesterday..Today tomorrow I will watch to see if we can hold support..I might close most of the shorts if so.
There was a comment from Nagendra on how low we might go into Nov low and how high/timeframe after that - I want to be clear on this - Hurst defines the timeframes clearly. Targets we get hints on how far it might go..In this case, I have a target of 4500 on Nifty by November mid. I think even 4250-4300 is possible. Can we see below that? Its possible but for me the absolute worst target is 3800/3600 range. Not lower than that.
After the low, then what? Too early to say. But I would suggest you to read my earlier 2-3 posts below..There are lots of important information in there..Some stuff will give you clues on what to expect. Crests will be always translated - Since the next 80 week cycle will be bullish, you can expect a right translation. Read my posts from before to understand more on what I am saying here.
I will post the cycles chart in a few days. Not much change in what I posted before.
We are likely topping the first 5 week cycle in the last 20 week cycle of this bearish 80 week cycle. Its bearish all the way apart from small bounces. Sell the rallies and cover/take profits on the panic dips.
Take a look at CNX IT and S&P CNX 500 normal charts for how bearish it looks..IT index shows a breakout of an Head and Shoulders and even target achieved! Anyone trade this? :)
CNX 500 on the other hand shows a clear breakdown as well over past 2 weeks..Target is more than 20% lower! Check it out...