Past few days, Advance decline stats have been absolutely horrendous..This is very important information because it shows the market's internal makeup and structure and that is quickly falling apart. Now when we look at the full market not just Nifty, it shows a lot of weakness and lot of stocks are crashing every day. This shows the internal weakness and without internal strength, the market cannot move up from here..Apart from weak bounces that will quickly fail.
Today a small bounce is possible which can extend into end of this week. And then next week might again be bad. Either way, the maximum time I would give this current pause in the downtrend (thats only what it is - pause in the downtrend) is until the last few days of August or by September 1st/2nd..After which we should see a move below 4950 and below that 4800/4750. Take it for what its worth!
Now a chart.
Now what I would say first is my software is a bit confused here. So am I. Its a little bit uncertain now on the smaller term cycles. But longer is very clear..i.e we are going toward the longer term low in November mid timeframe maybe a LITTLE bit early.
Shorter term, uncertainty rules now. My main confusion is whether to place the 20 week low on the June mid low or whether to place it on the most recent August 8th low at 4950. If I place it this late, it shows an extended 20 week cycle which I am not very happy with. Still it will be clear after some more time.
So the next 20 week cycle has started - only question is when did it start?
So this recent low could be the 20 week cycle low OR the 5 week cycle low. Confused yet? :)
Even though this might seem confusing, the picture is clear in the medium term to longer term..Not a time to be bullish or bottom pick - YET!
Trade Safe.
Best,
Lee
No comments:
Post a Comment