Looking ahead to coming week, it might not be as easy to trade I feel. Because there are some changes coming up - most important of which is that we are closer to a temp low than before. Pricewise I am bit uncertain but timewise it should come around this Friday to next week Monday timeframe. Maybe a little bit more than that but in that timing vicinity. This will be the 10 week low as per my calculation and from here we will get a sidewise bounce sort of move for few weeks atleast.
Okay so bottom line as before - still bearish over medium term into the November 80 week low. Bearish also into the 10 week low in the next 6-7 trading days. Slightly bullish after that for couple of weeks and then again bearish for the final move. You can visualize this from the chart above. If we saw the last 20 week low in June 3rd week or so at around 5200 and from there we are in the last 20 week cycle before Nov. So this is a bearish cycle and we have already broken several key lows along the way.
Now we are in the last 10 week cycle in this 80 week cycle so its also a bearish one however some small bounce can be expected soon - this may come in the form of a larger scale wave 4. Ilango gives good counts on his blog around this scenario. Assuming we are in a wave 3 now, we should finish the downmove into the 10 week low and from there start the wave 4 I was talking about.
All ideas only. Does not have to pan out. And when trading we need to remember not to get fixated on any single idea but be flexible.
My trading plan for today is to get some hedges thrown in for my shorts because we are at some sort of support levels and also because my earlier hedges I had closed couple of days back. And then wait and watch. Levels wise, 4800 showed some support, breaking of which will lead to more downsides - 4700 might be another area we test soon. Below that, 4500 also comes into play. But one step at a time. Remember this might be the last portion of this section of the downmove so dont get overly bearish and fall into a trap.
If you arent short, then this is not the time to get into fresh ones. If you are short, take portion of profits off and hedge the rest. If you are long, expect some pain..maybe lot of pain before a low takes hold - Just a guess - Might be wrong on this also.
Wanted to post more charts and thoughts but no time..So will try to add some stuff later.
If you missed earlier posts on Hurst, you might want to read up again my earlier posts.
Best,
Lee
2 comments:
the software u use for hurst cycle do u have a cracked version ? meshachm80@gmail.com
Hi, no no cracked version. This is a highly specialized software - very few people in the world use it. I dont think there will ever be a cracked version because of the online support needed etc etc.
Lee
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