Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Looks Corrective - For Now

Its corrective all the way and may last for some more time. There is an outside chance that the 5 wave down has started but it only gets confirmed below 4800. And then also it can quickly find support.

So for now, its essential to be quick and nimble. Scalping and very quick trades might work. So for some time I am not going to post my trades because it will changes quickly in and out. Yesterday is an example. I couldnt post frequently enough depending on how I traded.

As I have been saying so many times - one thing is sure - longer term/medium term is bearish into the expected Nov 80 Week low. Nothing else is certain at this point of time but it should clear up over time.



Now as you can see from above..Its very confusing. The main confusion point is where is the last 20Week low. Unless this is placed, we cannot resolve the lower timeframe lows. 10 Week, 5 week etc. See the questions marks? That shows the confusions. I am hoping things clear up by next week or so. Till then we have to scalp.

Problem is earlier I was thinking that the June mid low is the 20 week low. And what we are getting now could be either a 5 week low and then in few days the 2.5 week and so on. But this picture shows something different. That the last 20 week cycle may have extended - which is bearish - and low we might be coming out of a low point.
If this is the case, then a bounce higher above 5000 into the 5150-80 range cannot be ruled out. So as I said confusion overall. But being bearish overall is safer. If you are bullish, I will suggest, keeping the trades short(timeframe) and safe. Also hedging while it reduces the profits, gives some peace of mind. This is how I will be playing for next 1-2 weeks - both longs and shorts.

If you guys have any questions, please feel free to ask. I sense that some questions are there..I saw a few here and on mail which I tried to answer..but still anything else, please feel free to shoot and I will answer them over a weekend post.

Best,
Lee

1 comment:

Shai said...

Hi Lee,

It's good to see a write up on time cycles.

Why do u not consider June 20 to be a previous cycle low? For me the bounce off it was good enough and we are currently in the next cycle which is left translated and at current prices has met it's objective on the downside.

Though it's too early to call a bottom for the IT cycle, we may be nearing the end of the current daily cycle.

It's interesting to see that you use EW and time cycles, where as I have an inclination for Market profile and use cycles to get objectives certified.

Will be happy to exchange notes.

I last did a post here : http://www.vtrender.com/2011/07/price-n-time.html