Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

20/20

No not a cricket match :) ... I am talking about hindsight here...Its funny how that works...Hindsight is always 20/20...What does that mean? It means looking back, we always know the exact points in time where we should have done something...And looking back now, I realize I should have covered shorts and probably sat out this current upmove.

Some of you readers might think I am a fool for letting this profit go by...But again the hindsight thing comes into mind...

I do not have much concern over here as I think this is just an oversold bounce in a very badly damaged market. In the bigger scheme of things, its not a big deal. I know I was in decent profits last Friday and after today's close overall position is in a small loss...I admit this is psychologically draining to see what was a profit go into a loss...But I follow the Jesse Livermore maxim...Sometimes in a trade, you just have to sit tight and wait for the BIG ONE...And that is what I am waiting for here...Might have to take some more pain but the payoff could be big.

The other thing I am feeling now is...after starting this new position updates thing on the blog, it has increased the pressure on me several times over...The pressure to not get into bad trades...The pressure to keep on winning...I guess this is why almost no one will do something like this...I am however going to tough it out and see how it goes...If I feel my performance is getting impacted, I will decide to stop the same...After all that is more important to me. Right now its quite too early to say for sure...But I am keeping a close eye on it.

Coming to the markets...Ok we got a good rally...Next area is 2805-2860 resistance bundle or wall...It would be very tough for the market to go over this...But if it does, we will challenge 2920-2950 range....As of now I dont have a clear plan on this trade if this happens...But I will see when we get there...Break 2720 on the downside and I think the downmove will continue in earnest to 2500 odd. Right now its a toss up and cant say for sure what the short term move will be...Intermediate term..i.e over next 2-3 months, I am very confident we shall see 2200 area and lower again. In the meantime, some pain is bound to be there.

If I get some time later, I will post charts with the counts I think we are in now.

Comments welcome.

Best.

7 comments:

sajal said...

hi lee,
i do not fall into the groups who think u act foolishly by not taking profits as i myself believe cut ur losses small let ur profits big.and when u make 50 to 60% trades winning u reach the goal.
i have just joined here otherwise i may have helped u in the trade management.i have some 15 yrs experience in indian stock market.
wishing u the very best.

Lee said...

Hey Sajal...No no...did not mean the comment at you or anyone else...I guess its what I also feel deep down that came in the post..nothing else.

Best.

nsajal said...

i know u didnt...just lettin u know my view about stock trading.
dont ponder over it too much ... may spoil ur next trade.

Anonymous said...

sir, thanks for your blog as i am following and improving the knowledge. I doubt,whether to insulate the news/rumors from TA for a trade decision . News in the market is always effecting the trade though technically ok.News based trade fails and TA based trade is successful as far as my observations are concerned. Will this vary in Bull market news Vs bear market news. Please comment.

Lee said...

Dear Anonymous, pls post with some name..I have lot of difficulty responding to anonymous posts...

To answer your Qs..Yes..Ignore news always...Any kind of news will always be reflected in price..So all that matters to us traders is price..

Now having said that, it is always best to have an idea about underlying fundamentals...For example right now, things are bearish..so that is dominant..But does not mean that we can have sharp bear market rallies..But underlying trend is down..Again this can be determined by price.

FWIW..

Best.

Anonymous said...

One unasked suggestion. Please take out option for comments. If any one has a question, he can either mail you or use the chat.

Too many cooks spoil the broth. Profit or Loss, decision is yours, but comments becoming more of I know better which hampers free thinking.

Anonymous said...

Thank you sir