Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Sunday, March 15, 2009

What I see.....

12:30PM: I said we'd test 2730, and here we are testing it...May sell off from here..Infact I think good odds for it..Above it and we can run very fast to 2750 and maybe even 2780..Low probability for now..

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11:00AM: Okay so initial upmove over..And a pullback..It looks like its taking support around here..So it will try again 2730 range...Need to see how it reacts there before determining what can happen next..I added bit more to shorts in the am..As I said earlier, I was 50% short earlier...added bit more today...Not yet at 100%...I will reserve that for IF we trade at around 2820.

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Before I get into the charts and forecasting...Let me say some stuff...Most of you guys think that when I come out and make a statement like market is going to rally and test so and so a figure or market is going to fall and test so and so a figure, I look into my crystal ball and dole that out to you..OR that I am an operator moving the markets :D ..OR well that I am bullshitting you...But well that is NOT the case...Absolutely NOT...There is a lot of study that goes into this forecast..LOTS..That most of the normal folks wont be able to wrap their head around it!..LOL..I am delusional..A little bit crazy...A little bit paranoid...And very dedicated to the market that probably Mrs. Lee will soon drive me out of the house! LOL :D ..Thats probably why :) Not trying to be coy..But just trying to say - Dont take this stuff for granted..There is a lot of effort going into this..I am not God..I am wrong more often than right..But thats what we have exit plans or Stops in place for..But when I am right, I WILL rock and roll...And thats when most naysayers come out I notice...like last week and before :) So today, I will try and show some of the stuff I am looking at..

Its a very very interesting juncture...Infact I'd call it the most interesting and confusing juncture since the BIG BAD BEAR began in Jan of 08. So lets get into it...Guys you can comment, you can criticize, do whatever you want. I love reading comments..I love reading thoughts from others...Whether its FOR or AGAINST..so pls post..With reasons ofcourse.. :)

The only thing I cannot tolerate is -
1. Blatant criticism about positions without ANY reasons.
2. Questioning about positions AS IF I am your financial advisor..Which I am NOT!.

Anything other than above, please guys, I urge you to post..Post charts thru stuff like imageshack or jing..I will comment..I will help if you guys are looking for help...Anything...

Ok lets start then, we shall look at some charts first with my comments annotated on them...And then we shall go into my thoughts on what market shall do this coming week -












Okay...now what do I think...I feel..that we have 2 possibilities..Test 2760-80 odd and move down for the finale capitulation...I dont know what the reasons will be but in TA we dont search for reasons :)

The 2nd possibility is that we go down from around 2720-2740 odd to test 2660-2600 range before pushing higher up into the 2810-20 range...before again the finale capitulation move..

The last possibility - I give low probability to this but as traders we need to have this always in back of mind - Is that we go above 2820 and 2850 and sustain there..This will mean a move to around 3250 first and then above than 3600 and 4200..LOL...Look at the charts objectively and you will see what I mean...

For now, I do remain bearish but I will be ready to change on a dime as we might be near to a MORPH point....More than Ever!

Comments welcome as always.

Best.

1 comment:

Saif said...

any idea whats moving akruti.is it pure speculation or have fundamentals changed .its up 50% in last 6 odd trading sessions!!!ideal for short :)