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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Wednesday

The wedge worked very well yesterday for a short term trade...Hope some of you banked some coin...

Today also the US market pushed up..I like the action because it made people more bullish...Sentiment is important..I think its very very close to topping out..

Our market..Tricky..Today we should retest the area of the highs again..Dont know if it will go above...Yesterday I reduced on my short exposure toward the end of day..I think I mentioned earlier that I would do this..Still short but not so much that I cannot add more..

So thats the plan..The top of the falling channel is at 2830-2840 range..So that should remain stoploss for shorts for now..Please note I never put in a hard stop..Instead will have a mental stop..

As for the market moves, there are few different possibilities...Infact the more bullish one was to drop to 2660 range over next couple of days and mount one more rally upward. Dont know if we get it but overall I would say we are in a topping mode right now...Lets see how it plays out.

If I see something worthwhile intraday, I will post.

Best.
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9 comments:

salildali said...

Hi lee,
One of the reader of your blog. What I feel is that nifty 2500 is difficult nut to crack. Even after Mumbai attack, next day it did not tank.
From High of 6357.10 we have made low of 2252.75 that is 65%. History shows that Indian market has fallen around 58% in bear markets. So we have already fallen more than 58%. Even if we consider 60% correction from top the value comes to 2543 for nifty.
It may require one of the following reasons to crack.
1) formation of 3rd front gov. 2) Collapse of institution in U.S. 3) War with Pak. 4) Very pathetic result by corporate.
So nifty will oscillate between 2500 to 2850. so shorting should be done wither below 2500 or above 2650 as per conditions of T.A. in between area is no shorting zone is what I fill.

March 17, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Lee said...

Salil, I was thinking earlier that 2500 would break and we would go to test the 2250 lows again...At minimum...

I do not think so anymore - which is what I meant when I said medium term I am more bullish than before..See the paths on the charts I drew earlier to see what I am looking for...

After the next downmove, I will be bullish.

Best.

March 17, 2009 at 9:50 PM
Unknown said...

I was looking the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) composite leading indicators (CLI) for India. It’s came down to 92.4 in Jan’09 from 102.1 of Dec’07. Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as: Expansion (increase above100), Downturn (decrease above 100), Slowdown (decrease below 100), recovery (increase below 100).
Although a technical bounce is due macro economy not suggesting any sign of recovery.

March 18, 2009 at 12:18 AM
Sujatha said...

Stop the nifty pls :)

Pls post about the US mkts 2day RSI lvls.

Dow Jones Industrial @ 97.47
NYSE composite - 99
Dow jones composite - 98.78
S&P 500 - 95.12

Is the above right? if so, any time it may fall? where can we get the exact 2day RSI lvls of world indices

March 18, 2009 at 12:36 AM
Prashanth said...

We seem very close to the Channel I had posted yesterday. Breakout (false or real, that time will tell) is very imminent.

March 18, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Unknown said...

Dow Jones Industrial Average RSI(17-Mar -74.19 & 16-Mar 29.72),
NASDAQ Composite RSI(17-Mar 76.16 & 16-Mar 26.36), S&P 500 INDEX RSI(17-Mar 73.93 & 16-Mar 26.81.You can refer to yahoo finance for more details.

March 18, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Abhimanyu said...

18th MARCH 2009
Lee still not closed at 2798 ....
2 times we crossed 2800 but did not sustain....
Market moves up even after getting bearish signal...
Then Over bought... and its good in case there is any fall

March 18, 2009 at 3:45 AM
Abhimanyu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
March 18, 2009 at 3:46 AM
Sujatha said...

Thank u Manoj for your information.

Will check yahoo finance

March 18, 2009 at 10:23 PM

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