Status Quo

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Status Quo

Best,
Lee

8 comments:

golfdude said...: Based on EW, I feel we might have just completed Wave 4. Maybe we will
slowly embark on a Wave 5 down. 4720-5168 end of Aug was 8 days, and now 4729-5160 is in its 8th day. Your Oct end low might come true.; October 16, 2011 at 9:45 PM
Unknown said...: Fantastic.
Clear picture oct end-nov start is too important; October 17, 2011 at 1:48 AM
Aly said...: Lee,

thnks for showing the graphs and esp. the cycles. helps a lot in understanding the cycles and the timelines. based on your graphs it seems that :
1. we are heading towards an intermediate low around end oct / beg nov
2. this may imply a bear diwali
3. markets should recover after that to some extent. However that recovery will be short lived in the sense that we should see a lower low in mid april; October 17, 2011 at 6:27 AM
Nandi said...: Hi Lee,
Thanks for the self speaking charts.
@Aly, I agree with you.; October 17, 2011 at 8:43 AM
Sachin said...: Lee,

I would like to disagree here.. the 80 week low is still towrads the end of november as predcited by charts.. and as you know the last 3-4 weeks of any down cycle is very very fast.. so i am still for a major low by November end.. below 4700.. then i would like to buy in deliveries for next 40 weeks of next 80 week cycle..we are still in bear cycle till 2016.. Let me know if this is not correct..; October 17, 2011 at 9:21 AM
Sachin said...: And i would like to thank you for your perspective on TIME cycles.. it has changed the way i trade now..

Cheers!!!; October 17, 2011 at 9:23 AM
Lee said...: GD, could be. But market internals are not supporting this viewpoint as of now. It is looking strong - maybe a wave 2 instead of 5. This is my preferred view but will be quick to change on a dime if situation warrants it. Check out TIMAMO - Sunil's blog - for some idea on the internals I am speaking about.

Thanks Jigs & Nandi.

Aly, Agree with 1. 2 - maybe. I am not too excited about bearish prospects at this point. I expect a good recovery from the 80 week lows expected in Nov 1st week - I expect we will remain in an uptrend - maybe it will continue till March/April..And then lower from there. I will add some thoughts around this in my next post.

Sachin, we agree about direction. But we disagree about magnitude. Its ok - I have some reasons which are making me not so excited about downside at this point..I think 4900-4800 will hold at this point. And btw 80 week low will come in around Nov 1st week not Nov end. We shall see what market will do..see my thoughts above as well. I have some solid reasons for not being overly bearish at this particular point - its not because of the big rally we saw till now. Internals are bullish. Cycles are turning bullish. Sure you are correct about the final parts of the bearish cycles being vicious - but if this was the case, we would not have had such a big rise from the lows - I dont think so. So yes we can collapse here below 4700 but time is running out for the bears. I will add more thoughts in my next post on what might be happening to the cycles. See its not just time based analysis - there are lot of nuances to Hurst analysis..A lot of which I am not talking about here due to it being quite complex..I will again touch upon this in next post.

Best,
Lee; October 17, 2011 at 11:01 AM
Lee said...: Btw, I am short from yesterday's open in NF..just wanted to make that clear..its just the magnitude of the downmove that I am doubtful about. Direction is clear..Will be short till the projected 2.5 week low..Then cover for a while and reshort again after a bounce for the final 80 week lows. Just a high level plan. Will not worry too much about how low it will go.

Best,
Lee; October 17, 2011 at 11:06 AM