Another thing I just wanted to show. See this below chart. This is a slightly modified model(expert model in the software) I am using. This one actually says the 80week low is already in. I dont like the 'look' of this due to various reasons..So not favoring it at the moment. But it is however a very good possibility considering the strength over past several days.
Lets see how far the next low comes - depending on that we can confirm. Remember shorter term this doesnt make any difference - 2.5, 5 week cycles are all operating fine.
I have been building into stocks whenever we have been having big bad down days..Its been going good so far. Around 30% into cash stocks right now. Rest I will be building in whenever we get big down days.
I am including a snapshot of what I hold right now..Entry price and current price along with current profit percentage. For obvious reasons I am not including quantity/size here. But I am 30% invested now - will add more on declines. The way I operate is very simple - I will monitor this basket every few days and whatever is outperforming on looks good on the charts - I will add more to them. Whatever looks bad, I will either give it a few more days or cut the position. I will post this snapshot every week maybe Friday going forward. This is to monitor a pure cash portfolio performance using Hurst cycles.
EDITS:
11 AM: Should have updated before..Todays move kind of shows the downpressure. Unless we take some support around here, we will go down to test 4950-4920 range again. I have been adding shorts from 5090 NF since the morning. Looking good so far. Regd the stocks portfolio, like I said, days like these are an opportunity to cherry pick. The key is not to get over excited and do everything in one day. We have till Nov 1st week.
11:45AM: May be overdone for today. Exiting shorts at 5040 and going flat. GN!
Best,
Lee
4 comments:
Thanks for the update. A bit confused about the 80 week low. Was hoping for a bigger fall. Probably the low may be correct if the Europe problem is sorted out and has been discounted.
Lee,
The portfolio that you have built.. is it based out of cycles of the individual stocks? Or you bought them as per your choice?
One more thing.. As per EW biggies.. the nifty is still to do its W5 to complete this C correction? Do you agree with that? If you track EW?
Sachin,
I do track EW. But problem with EW is that always there are open possibilities..I mean I know of analysts(I have been one myself) who are always waiting for that final w5..whether its to the top or bottom.
This whole move has been corrective from the top...We have done an ABC move I think from the top. Now we might be doing another huge X or an impulse up. Time will tell. I dont like to speculate too much on EW. Would rather trade the time cycles combined with other basic TA. Its been good to me so far.
The portfolio I have built is not based on cycles of individual stocks..Just strong stocks selected using basic TA.
bvdr, thats the job of the market..Keep us waiting for that elusive final low.. :)
Best,
Lee
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