Some thoughts..

Charts are there in previous posts. Still relevant for today. Just thought I would add some words to it for today :)

Looks like the 2.5 and probably the 5 week cycles have topped and we are now moving toward the 2.5week low expected this Friday(+or-1day). From there we are likely to have a bounce which can be again reshorted for a downmove into the 80week cycle nest of lows expected in Nov 1st week.

Now there has been a lot of good debate on the extent of the next downmove - some of this can be read in the earlier post comments. We are clear about the direction but its the magnitude that is doubtful at this point to me. Why? Because the upmove we saw from the last 5 week low was pretty awesome. And its not something one might expect from the last 5 week low in this 80 week cycle. So for this reason, the downmove also might not be as big as was initially expected. Now remember this is all speculation - we are sure of direction..so let us play that for now. Let the market go where it wants to go - we will profit from it as we know the time cycles.

Now why do I think this downmove wont be as big as initially expected? Market Internals are the major reason. Sunil over at TIMAMO has given some good studies on it. This is just one thing. Breadth is important - its like looking under the hood at a car's engine - on the surface things can look great or ugly..its only when you lift up the hood and look at the internals that you begin to see things that werent very obvious before. Sunil does some pretty good studies on this.
Apart from this, I track internals of the US market very closely..Better tools are available for this. And things are slowly becoming bullish.

All these reasons are telling me we might get at best a higher low. And for this reason, I do not think we will break 4700 this year. But I still reserve the right to change my views at any point :) I have been wrong many many times before! :D

But remember as I said above - Trading has got nothing to do with these so called forecasts. We trade for money and NOT to be RIGHT - Want to stress this point.

Many times I end up being wrong - but still manage to make some money out out it. As traders this should be our aim. Ego can be costly to any trader.

Now coming to cycles - I have some ideas as to why we might be turning bullish earlier than expected - Its because of sectors. Meaning there are many sectors out there..Oil and Gas, IT, FMCG etc..some of these sectors might have already bottomed out with their 80 week cycles..And so they might be lending upward pressure even though the broader 80 week lows have not yet come in. So...what I would say is be careful either way out there..The fag ends of cycles can be brutal if we have fixed mindsets - So I just say be flexible in your thoughts and positions.

Position Updates - I am short from yesterday open. Will try to cover at the 2.5 week low and reshort on a bounce into the 80 week low. This is the plan. I will also be looking to buy into good stocks for delivery as we go into the expected low. I am starting some pilot positions already just to track them. Let the market decide how far it wants to go in this downmove.

I hope with above post and explanation, my stand on this is a little bit more clear.
I dont really care how far down we might go.


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Ok, so thats my thoughts on the market. Next, several folks asked me about the Hurst software that I use and they wanted to get some more idea around it. I am going to do a write up here..show some examples of how the S/W works. The trades it generates, projections etc.

The software is called Sentient Trader. I have given a link on the top of this page which will direct you to the home page of Sentient Trader.

About the S/W - It is a great package out there in the market today which sticks to Hurst Cyclic principles to generate cyclic projection both time and price based. So it will give you projections in time and for price as well. And you can use this to analyse any market out there provided you have the data for it. Overall the software package is pretty awesome. It is expensive but worth every cent. I was very skeptical before buying it but have to say was pleasantly surprised by how much it has improved my trading. And whatever it cost me, I easily made that back and more within few weeks. It aids me a lot in all of my trading decisions and views nowadays. Readers on this blog would have seen the calls I made over time and you can judge for yourselves. Sure there have been duds - but that what makes the market. Cannot expect to hit home runs all the time. But on balance the software is an excellent aid to any serious trader out there in the market - Any market. We as Indians are always stingy when it comes to buying software - I know - But believe me this is worth every single cent.

CLICK HERE FOR THE SENTIENT TRADER HOMEPAGE

A chart that shows better what the software does -
(see also the charts from previous post: I think they are very clear)



There are many many other features also in the package. FLD lines which generate price targets..VTLs which will show if a low has passed on not and so on..Too much for me to go into in one post..But I will try to in later posts.

Feel free to ask me questions. I will be happy to answer.

Bests,
Lee