Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Friday, March 6, 2009

The ABC

Wow 34 comments in earlier post...Not exactly for the reasons I had in mind but it was good entertainment last night. I will continue to post the same way I always have...Naysayers or not...Anyway how was that bit of TA for you? The ABC upmove I called for...2620 on the dot..Yeah I'm an operator hehe...I will explain more on the ABC target toward end of this post.

Coming to all the hulabaloo yesterday...I guess when you have money on the line, its natural to become a bit emotional. When positions go my way, I cannot help but feel happy right? I am only human. I try to control emotions during a trade but after a trade gets over, I think I have a right to crow a bit. If anyone does not like it, please scram..This blog is not for you. When you have money on the line, when you put your trades on the line, its your credibility on the line...I dont know if anyone else has the guts to do it..Or follow up. What I do in this blog is unique in its own way..Its based on ACTUAL Trading..Unlike other big picture analysts who make viewpoints which are not tradable.

Comments - I enjoyed them a lot last night...And today morning...Lets keep the comments and ideas going...If you have thoughts, ideas etc, please do post them in the comments section...I am always on the lookout for new ideas, views, stock ideas etc etc...Most of the time I dont get time to look at different stocks so things like that would be appreciated in the comments section..

I think Neil compared this to evilspeculator.com...Wow I am fan of that site and happy that someone thinks I am close...But miles to go...

Okay now coming back to the ABC up target I called yesterday...Whats this Voodoo huh? Nothing simple ABC structure at minimum...Even though I did not trade it, I enjoyed that move after covering the short...

Explanation goes like this - After the downmove to support area 2540, it was natural to expect an upmove..This is why I covered. Next after that, a deep retrace...So see the first upmove was clearly impulsive. And so after the downmove taking support at 2560, we had an equivalent upmove leg again to 2620 and higher. So at minimum we have 3 waves in every move...A-B-C. If this is developing into a more bullish wave, we will have 1-2-3-4-5. Right now its too early to say but yesterday, the odds of having atleast a 3 wave move was high which is why I said we can get to 2620 and above...




Just thought I'd explain a bit on my call yesterday..Not sure if it sunk in..Some things can only be explained so much :) but if any questions, shoot in the comments section...Remember I dont have anything against constructive criticism...Its baseless accusations that I or anyone else for that matter cannot tolerate.

We shall see more on market later...Have a good weekend all.

Best.

7 comments:

VISHNU said...

Dear Lee,

So we have seen 2620 and I shorted at 2610 expecting the next down move, so what is the target you forsee after 2620?

VISHNU

Lee said...

Hi Vish,

2660 might come...Infact that is one of the levels I am also looking at...I will start shorting before that probably...

Above this 2660 I would be bit scared..I mean 2720-40 and then 2780 can come...Above 2780, I think bear case will be close to dead..so its unlikely...I will throw more thoughts on these lvls next post

I think Jeetu has posted some thoughts on this regd in his latest post...I am also on same page wrt to his levels...

Either way I am going to start shorting from our Monday regardless of holiday...More after the holiday....What I do is scale into shorts...That way I can avoid missing a move...

Best,
Lee

Saif said...

hi...can we have banknifty analysis ..thats one index which is getting hammered past 6 weeks...no bottom in sight for banks...just for a change

long.short said...

Dear Lee,
I have a question? Please dont laugh at my immaturity.I dont know anything about TA.
Does ABC comes after 1,2,3,4,5 waves??

what happens after ABC??

And what is ABC-X-ABC??
can you explain this for me with an illustration on chart?
TC
sajal

Lee said...

Shaq, will do something on banknifty soon.

Hey Sajal, no question is stupid :)

1-2-3-4-5 is an impulsive wave...ABC is a corrective wave...SO let us say we have an impulsive wave upward: 1-2-3-4-5, then we will have a corrective down..of ABC at minimum..sometimes it can be an ABC-X-ABC which is a double corrective - deeper correction...

Now, same can go other way also...1-2-3-4-5 down and then ABC up...If you see the chart in this post, this is what I have outlined..right? Basically a corrective corrects the earlier wave - down or up...

And in each wave it will have 5 or 3 waves depending on if its an impulsive wave OR corrective wave...For example in the chart here, look at the A wave, it is a clear 1-2-3-4-5 wave...Same for the C wave :)

I know its gets very complex..But after some time, you can just see the waves and know what to do..Very difficult to trade off this alone which is why I use many other things in addition to e-wave to make a decision...

I will see if I can make things more clear with a chart...

For now, check this post I made a long time back -

http://theindianmarketblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/elliot-wave-counts-and-ideas.html

Looking back, its kind of funny..even then max downside I was thinking was around 3600 on nifty...lol..funny how market always proves us wrong..hehe

Best.

long.short said...

Thanks Lee,
you made things pretty clear.you are a good teacher
waiting for more as you promised.

Market news said...

Sir am having nifty short at 2596 what to do advice me thanks
your work are genies.



Thanks