Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Reflexivity and Inverse Reflexivity

I meant to post earlier today but some work came up....Still here are my thoughts as promised...No charts today...Just typing some random thoughts and ideas.

Now the topic -
For those who don’t know about this concept, its very useful -

Reflexivity basically equals ‘a self forefilling prophecy’ - traders expect a gap and big decline, so they sell causing a big decline. This is actually a pretty widely followed concept. You can google for more information.

Inverse Reflexivity is a different idea - its an ‘unforefilling prophecy’ - its the contrarian flip side, where in this example, if too many traders go short anticipating the decline, the market makers aka operators can’t resist picking their pocket - coz believe me my friends, they know two very important things -

1. They can see how many short positions are out there and where hard stops are.

2. They know all the methodologies we use, what triggers setups, what triggers stops

If this is the case here, then likely it will roll over again down once the shorts are cleared, maybe by the close today or maybe by Monday.

Now above is what I think of the market now...As I said before I am just a trader...I am not a market GOD...You need to make your own decisions....I dont want you to lose money and then come back and post over here as that ANONYMOUS LOSER...I am sure that big loser lost so much money and he is totally pissed off at the world. Well my friend, no one but you is responsible for your own losses....Same thing I have to say to all....

Having said that, I thinned on some of my shorts yesterday...Still heavy so was looking to thin down some more today...If I get a good setup...But overall planning to hold shorts into next week. If you are risk averse, do not simulate my positions or my views :P

A wise guy once said about TRADING - The HARDEST WORK in TRADING is the WAITING ;)

Best.

5 comments:

long.short said...

so Lee, you believe in market makers aka operators ???? me too. but my friend vanilango said in dec some thing like in VFM forum ---if you can show me operator i will show you santa in this chirstmass.
TC
sajal

Yoda said...

nice post.

calm.n.cool said...

You seem to belong to a good peer group at vfm, but none of the other guys make a big noise in their trades like you.

What is the use of being an expert chartist if you can't trade with poise? You wanted to short the nifty all along its path to 3050, why repent now?

Traders far greater in skill and ability like Jessie Livermore have gone bust to bite the dust because of their bloated ego.

The nifty has a mind of its own, it obeys nobody's dictates. Play it calm n' cool while you last.

Lee said...

What are you trying to say Mr Calm and Cool? That I am wrong? If so, pls pls be more clear...then we can review in few days.

I am not sure what you are talking about..Mr Calm n Cool..What big noise? Understand you are at my blog and so a guest...I will write whatever I want to over here! lol...Its my blog so thats why...Still I dont know what you mean to convey? Can you please be more clear? Are you the Mr Anonymous? If so, it makes things more clear...If not, well I still dont know what you are trying to say?

Understand that I have clear exit plans...Do you? Are you bullish? What is your entry? 3000? I can understand your frustration. If you want to get into a pissing contest, then post what your thoughts are and what your position is...else just shut up...No one wants to hear what you want to say.

I know what my exit is...I know at which point market will tell me I am wrong..And I will get out at this point...Do you know this? I dont think so...See my friend I have been too long in this business...If I have survived this much, understand I know...I know..when I am wrong, there is no room for hope...I cut and run...Do you?

To others...sorry...nut jobs like this come up always..usually I just BAN them..here I want to see what this idiot wants to say...

ls, I will reply to you tomo...

Best.

shaq said...

the breakout above the upper end of narrower range (2880) might take place next week with the US stimulus package...then the 3rd week will bring interim budget ...will this be the trigger of pushing markets to a 61% retracement of arnd 3240 and then higher...
or the next high would confirm the wedge pattern and start final wave down???looking fwd to ur analysis...