Well folks, the decline/crash run much more in price levels than what I had been expecting. I will be honest - 2600 in Nifty was the worst possible level I was looking for...Market is a great humbler is it not? Broke 2600 with ease and went down to test 2250 area. Could be testing the multiyear flag breakout here - Chart below.
Let me be clear here...I am down on my cash holdings but I will keep adding on dips...I expect I will be much better off a few months from now...I booked a good deal of my puts yesterday...Thank God for Puts...Was able to recover much of my losses from the cash holdings...
My view going forward - Keep buying em big drops in the market..
See below charts also. First the long term chart I posted some time back. I admit we went much more than I thought we would but we are at an important area. Looks like we are testing the multiyear flag breakout area. If we fail this area, we can go to around 1950 on Nifty...Maybe around 6000 area on Sensex...BUT pls note this is the worst case..We need to be brave here and keep buying all the dips...No one can catch the exact bottom...But we can get close as possible.
Now the Nifty weekly chart...Comments on the chart.
Regd EW counts not going to make any statements out there...But sentiment is supportive of a major major bottom forming right here. But I am not going to worry about that. There is huge huge value out there...Dig for em and buy em...Dont be too nervous. A good example of a good stock is INFOSYS...Market down 25% from where I bought but INFY is UP 3% from my buy point...Thats just amazing and also a screaming BUY. Others I like right here are Educomp, KSOIL and NTPC..As always usual disclaimers apply and please do due diligence before following advice here...
Please note I had to say that since I hate to be the cause for ppl losing money if any....But having said that, I am confident on whats stated above. :) BUT expect retests of the bottom and maybe slightly lower going forward....Will be good areas to add aggressively to longs.
I remember at 6000 Nifty, ppl were calling and asking me about shares, demat accounts, IPOs and what not...I told them now is not the time...Now if I ask them to buy, they will look at me as if I am totally nuts...Thats sentiment guys...Be brave and buy now...As my friend Rajan sir says, Fortune does favour the brave! ;)
Comments welcome.
Best.
4 comments:
I have one question. Do you think that the reversal from bottom will be sharper or slower. As market is going down sharply and sometimes recovers from the lower, meaning tht people are buying including DIIs or may be FIIs. I feel no one has infinite supply of money, so sell at higher and buy at lower have to be there. Keepng all this mind, how would be the reversal?? Will it be same as downfall??
Well we have to watch more and see...I think we will rally more from here...maybe to the 3000-3200 area and then retrace..Now this is what will be important...How much we retrace and how much time we retrace...Confidence needs to come back into the market...Will take time...Its always better for market to move slower..Too much too fast is dangerous..This is one of the reasons I am telling friends not to use leverage NOW..Instead buy stocks in cash...Hope this helps..Other things..Well we need more evidence...
Cheers.
Hi.Lee,
Wish you a happy & prosperous Deepawali.
My best wishes for your regular & very insightful update on the market.
Carry on your good works.
Best regards.
Ilango
Thank You Ilango...Wish you too a Happy and Prosperous Diwali!
Regards.
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