Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Friday, October 31, 2008

Thoughts for the Weekend

Well guys first I must say thanks to all who came forward to offer me support as I was having second thoughts about continuing with the blog...I have added more on this in the comments in the post below this. Reading all the comments in the post and on the shoutbox, I cannot bring myself to close the blog...So I will not. I will however outline some concerns I have and why I thought about closing the blog...

THE WHY?

- Trading is tough...Mentally exhausting...Emotionally draining....Reasearch and Analysis also takes a lot of time....In addition to that blogging takes even more out of you...Putting your own ideas out in public for everyone to see them and act on them...And probably even go wrong more than often puts a lot of pressure on you in case the readers of this blog did not know...

- Ideas are out here. Trades are not. Does anyone know how I trade? Do I go long without any cover? Do I hedge? Where do I hedge? What do I use to hedge? If its puts, what is the ratio to longs that should be maintained, whats the strike so that the portfolio is delta neutral? Am I making sense? What I am trying to say is I am NOT a financial advisor...This blog presents ideas..Unless someone understands the risk vs. reward, do not enter a trade. I get sad seeing suckers everywhere looking for 'calls'. I have said this before and will say it again - Do your due diligence...I read 100s of blogs and ideas from other...Why do I do it? To get ideas..Not trades..I will collate this information and try to see how I can use it in my analysis. Sometimes I find useful stuff...Sometimes not...But in the end my own ideas and chart reads will come through...So my sincere advice to all...Use this blog for ideas NOT for calls or trades...I dont want that on my concience. And also understand basic ideas of risk and money management. This is what will make you successful in the long run.

- Few days back a sucker commented in one of the posts below that I am consistently wrong and that Nifty is going to 1800...Remember he posted when it was at 2250...I knew we had a bottom in place there...That comment is still there for those interested to check it out...It was an anonymous comment but I wonder if that loser is still short 700 nifty points above. While I was not much bothered about his comment because I knew he was wrong about short term..Medium term still can go lower but then its all about playing odds...Right now its buy the dips vs. sell the rallies...And so keep buying the dips.

We also had another sucker on VFM saying that India and China is going to war he had RAW intelligence...And so on...Another sure indication of the bottom... :) Read that in case you missed it...It was one of the most hilarious posts on VFM. When nifty goes back down to test the lows, I am sure he will post again...Buy blindly then...lol.

Coming to markets...Charts and more detailed analysis will follow later but in short what I think is the current configuration is still buy the dips but something is still nagging in the back on my mind that we need 1 more low....Till then we might just chop chop. This low can be a higher low also but we need to see that when we get there...I cannot count the waves properly..It looks like one more 5th wave low is needed and we might remain in a complex 4th wave for some time. At the moment I am confused at how long this uptrend will last and if we will even get much of a selloff later. I will analyse some more in the next post.

Cheers.

Lee


7 comments:

ss said...

Hey! was this the reason you wanted to close down? Jesus Christ!

WTF man, whoever is using your blog is at his own risk and he knows it. Just screw 'em the damn f****** suckers! That's not the reason to close down!

Anyway, whatever, don't allow anonymous comments. Enable comment moderation and you will filter out90% of the crap.

ss :)

Lee said...

Hey SS...some of the reasons yes...Burnout syndrome also definitely...

Well like you said, I will also start posting some different stuff also...You did make a great point in the other post...blogs should be made unique and its all about content...Nifty analysis alone probably kills me too...

lee

NAV said...

hi lee, ur comments and analysis are so strait forward, strait from heart tats why all the readers like it. if u need a break take one but continue blogging in the future, as i told u earlier whn u pointed out down trend i refrained from takin long positions as day trader around 4300 and rightly so i saved so much money

same way u predict the trend almost spot on so being a small day trader really its an eye opener and without knowing the trend from ur posts i am not sure if i can trade normally so plz dont give up.

continue the good work.

3 cheers to ur good work. hip.. hip..

HURRAY.......................

Ilango said...

Hi..Lee

There is nothing out there in the world or the people you can change to make your journey memorable continuing your blog. Can we change the way people perceive things? You can see in your comments box, chat box the number of people who benefited from your "ideas".That is the right one.If at all, you want a change, change the way you approach the issues, markets and see a dramatic effect..

Markets are so wild & choppy. Entry & Exit points decide the winnings and the same Entry & Exit points vary according to the ever changing world markets & other events. So it becomes very difficult to point an entry, exit points which has to be done by the individual only. Yes, you can provide the levels of likely resistances, supports, etc..

I tried to do all that for a while with "Morning updates & then some intra updates" and I realised that for a working man like me to do all that & trade also was just not possible. I am not abandoning anyone. But I cannot stretch myself beyond a certain level.

You are educating many with your regular posts with detailed analysis, reasons for the same, charts, pointers, etc and many more.

Knowledge can never really be valued. It is a relative term. For beginners and less experienced traders having no knowledge of EW & TA, you are "GOLD". For the experienced with all the knowledge in the world, you are still a reference point (like a company secretary..!!) and that is still Gold.

Self doubts come when you are really bursting to grow...

It is your journal, your diary..And it is a great reference manual. One of the great benefits of Internet revolution.

All the best..Lee........Just keep at it..

Best wishes.

Kenny said...

Hey Man:

You are a great writer, great analyst and post some really unique ideas. Your posts on Technical Investor also were right on. I definitely would highly recommend that you better start having thick skin in this blogging business and continue your writing.

Your analysis is something I capture, save and read later for doing my own interpretation of the markets.

So, I would agree with many of the comments here and continue doing what you have been doing, but do some serious moderation.

Take care.

KKP

Tryin2Trade said...

LEE Hi,
Yups it gets tiring if we have additional responsibilities apart from trading. Mentally exhaustive YES! But why do we write? for Self realization and satisfaction..our blogs are nothing but records of our observations. We also believe that these might help others and that's what we do. The day this motive is no longer there you will automatically stop.Till then continue and enjoy writing for your own pleasures. I do the same!
Chief I am into business of selling flowers so the day for me starts at 4 in the morning and when the world starts to go to work by 9 a.m. I am back totally exhausted and done for the day.Family and kids and of course my two cocker spaniels they also need to pampered.Analysis and writing the blog and my new found passion playing the Guitar also take toll at the end of the day.
I write when I have time and I write for myself and so do you!
As for suckers commenting well they keep on coming..we had one alien always commenting on SS blog.What did we do? We just ignored the fella.Deny them pleasure by not paying attention to them. Its like good riddance to bad rubbish!
Now coming back to your blog...its a good source of info especially on elliots..so if some one can make use of such wonderful analysis then he is lucky and if someone cant then he is a SUCKER. We dont make that choice they do!
So carry on PAL!!!!
Wish you all the success and god bless!
Regards,
Manoj

Arvind said...

Hey Lee,

Great that you are continuing your blog. And don't scare away the suckers man. We need them, don't we, to take the opposite side of our trades!! After all these suckers provide the money for the calm and disciplined traders. Take care & keep those posts coming please.

Regards,
Arvind V