Well we had some sort of a capitulation day on Friday and its not over...Probably far from it...I was expecting a bottom to form above 4000 without too much price damage however looking at overall scenario now, it does not look like it...We might see 3600/3400 which was the 2nd alternative I was looking at...Expect lots of panic next few days as noises emerge from different areas..However this is not the end of the world and use the opportunities to pick up the good scrips you like - after a few days - no need for rushing in....Supports will be there at 4000, 3800 and 3600...If we see 3600, blindly start buying...We might see this sometime in July or August...
I was expecting a rally into end of the year..Probably will take more time and more price damage before this happens...We have a bradley turn date in September so it may take till then for all the bottoming action to get over...THE bottom might however form before that....
If A=C, bottom = 3400 area....3600 also likely. Lets see.
Update on my positions: As I posted before I scaled into a 50% long posn in cash last week...Turned out to be too early...However since I am heavily hedged in July Puts, I am not going to lose anything...Probably gain more....Need to trade what I see...At this point, all I can see is there is more pain coming...But it should be viewed as an opportunity.
I will post if I see something significant developing...
Best.
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6 comments:
Started Accumulation from 3900 to 3300 is my guess to buid a strong portfolio for the next 5 years.
Rajandran
MarketCalls
Check the image i sent u in email
I think weekly Seuuport (4245) has worked at least for today (23/6/2008)
next Supports are around 4000, 3775 ,3650, 3550
today there is possibility for recovery in US Markets (World markets too)and again crash may take place tomorrow for DOW.
So there are many chances NSE will bounce back from 4200 or 4000
Let US C ...
hi lee, i like ur blog, am not a technical analyst am just a small time trader, do u think a double bottom is seen in the nse intraday charts for monday?
Mr. Naveen
I am also not a technical analyst but once one starts making loss in market he tries to become technical analyst like me.
Can u tell me what is the value of bottom.
If we consider Jan 2008 was bottom
then we are below that from 20/6/2008
next is weekly Support is (4245)
which is closer and above last year's 22nd June & 2nd may 2007 weekly values
If Nifty don’t take support at 4200 or 4000 then we can/may see 3600-3100 !!!
and as Per history it is most interesting thing in aspect of 8 years cycle where nifty came down by 53% from its top
I think 3600 can be a line where one can start buying good stocks blindly
but 35 to 50% of investment amount can be kept in hand in case and if we see 3100-3200.
So I think current(23/6/2008) nifty value is first time bottom of this year which is more important than intra day dual bottom
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