Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Monday, October 10, 2011

Dicey here...

...Have to admit yesterday's rally was a good one..I dont care much for rallies that show a big gap up and then do nothing for the full day. Yesterday's was good..Went and tested support at which I covered a big amount and then tried to reshort as we went higher. I say it is good because this is how a strong rally is built. Test support and then try to make a move higher.

Not that it makes much of difference. Today also looks like a gap up. So now I am uncertain how to deal with this. Do I cover? Do I hold and watch? Do I add to shorts? Dont know. Dangerous here either position. As I mentioned before, the Oct 12/13th date was when I was expecting a top to come. So still on target but price wise this is going much above what I expected. Today if it clears 5030 and stays above, it opens up the 5150-5200 range again. So lot of pain to take if you are short. So I am confused :) Whats new. If we go above 5200 without much of correction, then have to admit we might be going much higher. However I still think we have one more downmove lurking in the shadows which will come once majority is once again bullish. Too many unknowns out there..Infy results is another one..I have posted some thoughts on this in earlier post's comments section.

However, for today, will wait for clues after opening and act accordingly. Will post updates. I am holding some shorts so its a toss up as to what to do at this point. Will watch price action and make a decision.

EDITS:
1. Looks like going up..Covered almost all shorts..Will look to readd back later. Intraday scalping till then

2. Very uncertain here..Shorting back in slowly. They never make it easy do they?

3. Part booking and reshorting higher might be a good plan of action here. Will add back later. INFY results is also a wild card here.



Best,
Lee

9 comments:

bvdr said...

Thanks for the update. I am also holding short position.Today another gap up. Will 5030/35 hold EOD is the question ?? As Kumar sir said cover on hourly close above 5030. We may get another oppurtunity to short around 5100/20 levels

bvdr said...

10.00 AM close is 5025.5030/35 saved. besides market is overbought. Might get a chance to cover a bit lower.

Sujatha said...

But lee - this upmove is low volume one last time also mkt did like this and "your fall came inside' :)

Let me wait and see just 2 days left but DOW trading at 50 DEMA??? it should go beyond as spiral dates warning 13th is reversal that's working out + or - 2-3 days. Puts are damn cheap :P

PS : I scared whether this dow may show again 11500/700 level??? :( :( and believe your hurst cycle will come inside to save shorters (indian mkt)

Sujatha said...

sorry - read it as "it should not go beyond" if this is dow's top out then reversal possible from here so as asian queens too :)

Lee said...

Sujatha, I am back to shorting again..as you might have seen from my updates in the post. Also throwing in some hedges. Dont want to be taken in by surprise tomorrow(INFY)

bvdr, yes it is looking weak now..Kumar sir is having correct approach here.

Best,
Lee

bvdr said...

Good to see sujatha madam too on the bearish side. yes Dow could go to arounf 10600+ before resuming the downtrend.
Lee, Like you said might be a couple of days upside left and the downside could start from tomorrow evening or from thursday. Looks like it is better to hold shorts and short more near 5100/20 levels.
struggling to sustain 5035 level.

check this link pretty interesting www.queenstrade.com

Now 11.00 AM close is 5020. Looks like shorts are safe for another hour.

Lee said...

bvdr, very interesting to say the least. The guy seems to be using a combo of astro and ew along with basic TA..well whatever works :)

Market looking weak..have all the weak short hands been squeezed out? (I was also one of them but quickly added back in at higher levels)

OR is one more move up pending!

Best,
Lee

bvdr said...

Covered some shorts here Lee at a Loss though nifty is looking weak. Infy`s result is making me nervous.It is down 3% before result day and a Nifty heavy weight too.
For the past few Qtrs.it always went up before result and got hammered on result day. Today it is just the reverse. Will short again at higher level or wait till Infy`s result to decide. Also as per your time cycle it is likely to top out in the next couple of days.

Aly said...

hi all!

I have been following Infy for quite sometime. What I have observed is that it moves in opposite directions post the results compared to its direction before results