Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

INFY..

..Thats what will drive things today. And well the IIP number also although to a much lesser extent. We can speculate a lot about the results - IF it will be good or bad..But ultimately its the markets's REACTION to the results that will matter.

I dont have much more to add to yesterday's post. Except I am beginning to see a lot of bullish signs but my timing model is still saying low at end of October. So I will respect my system. Will continue to try and short but I will be reducing my aggressiveness on this for the time being. Its better to live and fight another day. Things are murky right now. Hit and Run trades seem to be the best option for now.

EDIT- 11:15AM IST: Well 2 big new items are out. Not so impressed with action so far. My earlier call was for a top today or tomorrow(Oct 12th/13th timeframe). So far it is looking quite possible. Reshorted today back at higher levels. I have hedged with 5100 calls. Now will wait and watch. We need to get below 4900 area to start feeling comfy on bearish positions.


Best,
Lee

9 comments:

Suresh said...

Hi Lee...Thnx for your updated comments...Does your system confirm short term bullishness..and where does this bullishness turn around from...Any clues from your system

Lee said...

Suresh, Oct 4th was the 5 week low. And we are in a upmove from that low. It could be topping now. I mentioned several times Oct 12th/13th is my topping window for October. Nothing has changed on that. And we will go down to the 80 week low end of Oct or beginning of Nov.

Best,
Lee

Lee said...

Not sure..I seem to be repeating myself so many times!

Best,
Lee

golfdude said...

Hi Lee...back from vacation yesterday. Was catching up and saw a huge shorting opportunity at 5030 range. Didnt take it though. But now based on EW, feels like we might have started Wave 3 of 5. Numbers seem to match. Will have to workout timeframes.

Lee said...

Hi GD..quite possible...But I am not sure..what if we are still in a BIG 4 and 5 is yet to start?

Best,
Lee

Sujatha said...

hi lee - another EW confusion from my side. from Low of 4728 to 5045 5 waves ended??? if so then some kind of fibo retracement (lower side) should start na?

PS : Really lessssssss knowledge in EW i will do for longer time donno anything about short term

vamsi said...

Hi Lee, Thanks for the update. I cut my shorts yesterday because of Infy falling 3%+. I also commented that possibility of Infy reversing and rallying on result day unlike previous qtrs.That is exactly what has happened.
I will start shorting again at higher level by eod or from tomorrow.

golfdude said...

Lee...today's action clearly says we still in Wave 4. Also gap filled nicely. Unless 5168 is taken out,
Wave 4 continues ( which doesnt make
sense timewise ).

Sachin said...

Lee,

Checekd the charts of INFY on time basis and it was in its last week of run.. the first resistance @2669..not it has crossed that.. so waiting for it to top out this week.. then go short.. although i wont short that in bulk becuase lot of time cycles have bottomed out at 2100.. so right now in first part of larger cycle and hence hard up..
Please check and let me know if this is correct anlaysis? I would really appreciate that.