Well what can I say..been a tough few weeks in the market. This is the reason why I havent been posting much. I dont want to say something stupid and cause anyone else to make a mistake. I had suggested best thing to do maybe stay out until more clarity emerges. I am also really confused what is going on bigger picture wise.
Let me just try to think aloud here - We do know that some sort of major low was seen on Oct 4th at 4740 around. Lets assume this is the 80 week low for now. It was quite early but let us go with that for now. If we go with that assumption, then the 10 week low is due around Nov end/Dec beginning week. From there again, we can expect a decent rally. We should continue to decline into that low area. BUT for now however, yesterday, I think we saw some sort of very short term low below 5000 and we are doing the bounce up. For longs the obvious stop is yesterday's low.
Last 2 days, I got rid of most of my cash positions - the drawdown was not looking good on paper. But still its a small loss only because of the hedges. Overall I havent done so good last few weeks - so I decided to get rid of cash and go back to trading in Nifty. Since outlook is uncertain, I will be able to get in and out of positions. Also I am beginning to rethink on my longer term ideas. But I will keep that to myself for now and present them here when I have some more confirmation.
So long for now in NF..hope to get out around 5100-5150 area. From where again will try to build some short positions up into 5250 area.
Charts posted below.